Arms Control Expert Says There Is No Military Solution to North Korean Nuclear Crisis
Here is the latest on what the expert class think of President Trump’s latest statements about negotiating with North Korea:
President Donald Trump said North Korea has been making “fools of U.S. negotiators” and “only one thing will work,” the latest hint of possible military action against the communist state.
The comments came amid fears that the North may test-fire another missile in connection with the anniversary Tuesday of the foundation of its ruling party. (……)
“Trying to ‘out Kim Jong Un’ Kim Jong Un in the threat department is not a winning strategy,” said Kingston Reif, director for disarmament and threat reduction policy at the U.S.-based Arms Control Association.
“It’s only making the problem worse and reinforces North Korea’s desire to advance its nuclear and missile development as rapidly as possible in order to strengthen deterrence against a possible U.S. attack,” he added. (……)
Past efforts at negotiating an end to North Korea’s missile and nuclear development have had limited success in exchange for concessions from the West.
Washington and Pyongyang signed a deal known as the “agreed framework” in 1994 in which the North committed to freezing its plutonium weapons program in exchange for aid. But that agreement collapsed in 2002.
Subsequent six-party talks involving the two Koreas, China, Russia, the United States and Japan fell apart in 2009 after the North launched a rocket shortly after President Barack Obama’s inauguration.
Reif pointed out talks have been effective in the past.
“A more effective strategy would be to marry continued pressure, deterrence and containment with pursuit of diplomatic off ramps,” he said. “There is no military solution to this growing problem.” [Stars & Stripes]
You can read more at the link, but first of all President Trump’s makes comments are irrelevant to North Korea’s pursuit of nuclear weapons. They were rapidly pursuing them during the Obama administration and they are rapidly pursuing them now. It doesn’t matter who is in the White House the Kim regime has made this a national goal to become a nuclear weapons state regardless of who is in the White House. The US could re-elect Jimmy Carter and Kim Jong-un would still be pursuing nuclear weapons.
As far as President Trump’s comments, it is clearly a negotiating strategy for those that pay attention. Based off of Trump’s Art of the Deal style negotiations he wants the North Koreans to think he is about to launch a massive military strike on them. This actually strengthens the State Departments negotiations attempts to find an off ramp.
Plus anyone that thinks there has been any success with negotiations with Kim Jong-un is fooling themselves. Prior negotiations brought delays in the North Koreans nuclear program when Kim Jong-il was in power, but did not end it. Can anyone name one success negotiations has brought the United States during Kim Jong-un’s time in power? The Kim Jong-un regime has made it quite clear that they plan to become a fully developed nuclear weapons state.
However, as I stated before the off ramp is not going to be North Korea giving up their nuclear weapons program. At best some sort of freeze deal could be worked out which is what the Russians, the Chinese and the academic class has been advocating for in recent months.
A freeze deal, to work, would have to have significant teeth, and I can’t see right now, how that could be built in, or worse, how it could be made to work, to actually freeze the programs (delivery systems have to be included). I think a better strategy is to keep sanctions tight, and wait for pressures against the regime to build up in North Korea. It’s long-term, but it has a better chance of working to forestall an all-out war. In the end, it may not be possible to prevent a war, but it would definitely not be a good idea to start one.
“ARMS CONTROL EXPERT SAYS THERE IS NO MILITARY SOLUTION TO NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR CRISIS”
Clearly this commie-happy peacenik arms control “expert” has not been paying attention.
A military solution is the ONLY solution.
Once North Korea tests a missile and nuke that can hit America, it starts to look too late… but right now, it is exactly the solution.
It’s like all the devoted commies, ideological liberals, opportunistic multinational corporatists, and cunning globalists are engaged in a conspiracy of shared values to ensure nothing is done to North Korea until nothing CAN be done to North Korea.
The solution goes like this:
North Korea: if you test another nuke or another missile, America will end you. Everything you hold dear will be leveled to the ground, your regime will end ingloriously, your former leaders will be hunted amid the ruins, your people will starve, and your nation will be remembered for a thousand years as an example.
China, South Korea, Russia, and Japan: America will not be the target of nuclear blackmail. Unless you are willing to respond with World War 3, you need to understand this is the non-negotiable deal. By whatever means necessary, pressure North Korea into ending their programs or prepare to deal with the aftermath of total national collapse.
In the long run, destroying a malevolent hereditary dictatorship threatening the world with nuclear destruction benefits everyone. Today they stand up to America with their hand out. Tomorrow they demand Chinese aid, Russian resources, South Korea to adopt more of their system, or revenge on Japan.
This pattern of dysfunction ends right now.
…when it is clear this can and will be done, those pushing for North Korea’s success and those apathetic to it will rethink the mental calculus and determine that keeping things as they are is the best situation for now.
Given the norks will only stop when Hell freezes over, I like Trump’s chances better than waiting until Seoul, Tokyo, Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, and Los Angeles are glowing in the dark.
The only good dictator is a dead one.
“The only good dictator is a dead one.”
Except the ones who don’t threaten America, provide stability with an iron fist, and prevent radicalization of their populations while halting mass migration of third world “economic refugees” through their borders en route to first world nations where they will then begin demanding government provided freebies and native cultural adjustment to fit their belief system or sensibilities.
AKA every dictator we have forced out of power in the past 15 years or so.
Honestly, Bush and Obama have weakened Trump’s position greatly by providing examples of what happens when dictators either cooperate with America or don’t provide a credible enough threat to deter the US from swooping in and effing the place up.
Kim doesn’t want a box cutter up his ass or to be tried and hanged by a kangaroo court. Trump might not push for a regime change if Kim stops his BS, but what guarantee does he have that the next president won’t be the typical bloodthirsty Neocon or hawkish, opportunistic democrat?
He’s playing the long game.
Sure there are military solution, just do like how any of them would play out.
“Sure there are military solution, just do(n’t) like how any of them would play out.”
What’s there to like about any outcome?
I live in South Korea, do business in South Korea, own property in South Korea, have much invested in South Korea, have a lot of expensive stuff in South Korea. Etc.
War of any sort is most likely against all of my best interests. Don’t mistake my comments for an enthusiastic call for war.
But, looking at it from a larger perspective, it is the best option…
…especially from an America First perspective… which is who benefits the most from military conflict and suffers the least… and can unquestionable make it happen if there is the political will to clearly define victory and then achieve it without fretting over the concerns or welfare of other.
Let’s consider:
If NK is allowed to get by with nuclear blackmail, everyone will take note and start their own programs… something that is only getting easier as manufacturing technology develops and the tricks of the trade leak out to the internet’s collective knowledge.
For the long game, it must be made blindingly clear that shítty little countries cannot have missiles and bombs.
This is the chance to set that idea in stone… and stopping that long-term global risk outweighs mythical attacks on South Korea that serve no purpose, fake hurt feelings in China, fake Russian indignation, and probable half-aśśed attacks on Japan to settle a hundred (and 500) year-old grudge.
Nobody wants risk, instability, disorder, or destruction now… but that is minor compared to a world full of petty and unstable sociopathic dictatorships with unlimited demands and the means to back up threats.
Everybody will bitch about America… but everybody will secretly breathe a sigh of relief and then implement the selfish plans they made long ago to take advantage of the situation.
And the world will be a safer place.
Johnny, it’s up to American voters to stop electing alleged coke-heads. Squishy foreign policy is what gets us into wars.
We may need to tattoo “No better friend. No worse enemy.” onto the hides of every terrorist we catch and send their legally-executed corpse back to their homeland so the message is clear.
If they choose to kidnap an American, we will find you and make them wish we were just a Liam Nisson movie character. If they attack an American plane, ship, or whatever, we remove several of their cities and all of your military. No more nation-building, we will let your neighbors do that.
Yes, that requires we identify the country or countries supoorting the terrorists–and we’re looking at you, Iran, for what you have done in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere.
Alternately, we could just surrender.
Arrg. Neeson, not Nisson.
Almost as bad as autocorrect; but no excuse….