It looks like the upcoming Key Resolve exercise will be delayed if North Korea does not cause any more provocations:
This photo provided courtesy of the presidential office Cheong Wa Dae shows South Korean President Moon Jae-in during his telephone conversation with U.S. President Donald Trump on Jan. 4, 2018. (Yonhap)
South Korean President Moon Jae-in and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed Thursday to delay their countries’ regular joint military exercises during the Winter Olympic Games to be held here next month.
The agreement came in a telephone conversation between the two leaders, according to the South Korean presidential office Cheong Wa Dae.
The tentative agreement came at a request from the South Korean leader.
“I believe it would greatly help ensure the success of the PyeongChang Winter Olympic Games if you could express an intention to delay joint South Korea-U.S. military exercises during the Olympics in case the North does not make any more provocations,” Moon was quoted as telling Trump.
The U.S. president agreed, saying Moon may tell North Korea that there will be no military exercises during the Olympics, according to Cheong Wa Dae.
In a press release, the White House confirmed the leaders agreed to “de-conflict the Olympics and our military exercises so that United States and Republic of Korea forces can focus on ensuring the security of the Games.” [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but the Olympics are in February and the Key Resolve exercise is typically executed in March so it was not like both events were overlapping. However, preparations and personnel movements do happen in February and a shift of Key Resolve will provide the ROK military more time to focus on Olympic security before executing the exercise.
I guess the big question becomes what happens if North Korea commits a provocation like a missile test? Does Key Resolve get executed at the original time? I would not be surprised if North Korea does a more ambiguous provocation like a space launch just to create tension in the US-ROK alliance over what to do in response.
The speculation is the Kim Jong-un will send a high ranking political official along with sports officials to the Winter Olympics:
In Dec. 30 footage on North Korea’s state-run Korean Central Television of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s attendance of a celebratory performance at the 5th Conference of Party Cell Chairs, Kim is shown climbing the steps of the performance venue while talking to his younger sister Kim Yo-jong, vice director of the Korean Workers’ Party. (Pyongyang/KCNA, Yonhap News)
A North Korean delegation to the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics could be led by Kim Yo-jong or by Choe Ryong-hae, the second-most powerful person in the North.
During his personally delivered New Year’s address, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un expressed his hope that the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics would be a success and declared his willingness to take the necessary measures, such as sending a delegation to South Korea. The delegation that Kim mentioned would presumably include International Olympic Committee member Jang Ung, National Sports Guidance Committee chairman (NSGC) Choe Hwi and Minister of Sports Kim Il-guk. [Hankyoreh]
You can read more at the link, but if he sends his sister to South Korea I think that is a sign that Kim Jong-un is really pushing his charm offensive on South Korea to get concessions after an extended period of provocations. Having his sister attend the games would give North Korea a softer touch internationally with all the cameras on her instead of the sternly faced old men that usually attend these events.
This is just another example of how the Olympics is basically turning into a professional sports league complete with free agent signings:
Aileen Frisch / Korea Times file
German-born luge racer Aileen Frisch will represent South Korea at the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics, officials at the Ministry of Justice said Thursday.
According to the justice ministry, a panel of ministry officials endorsed the recommendation by the Korean Olympics Committee (KOC) for the 24-year-old luge athlete to receive special naturalization on Nov. 7. The KOC recommended her to the ministry five months ago.
The ministry also notified the Korea Luge Federation (KLF) of the decision, adding that she is set to acquire Korean citizenship if she passes a ministry interview planned this month. According to the ministry, Frisch is allowed to have dual citizenship under the Special Naturalization Law.
An official at the KLF said the naturalization procedure will be completed after the German passes the interview. Once she acquires Korean citizenship, she is expected to represent Korea in the World Cup and international competitions starting January, the official said. [Korea Times]
If this happened in the US the media would probably be claiming racial profiling and activists would use legal action to stop the deportations. In Korea deporting people with terrorism ties is considered common sense:
South Korea has deported 17 foreigners in a preemptive anti-terror action before the PyeongChang Olympics in February, the immigration office said Tuesday.
They were from five countries, including unidentified ones in Southeast and Central Asia, according to the Korea Immigration Service.
They were either members of international terrorist groups specified in the country’s Anti-Terror Law or those on a wanted list shared by a network of intelligence agencies. Detailed information about them was unavailable.
“We have deported 17 foreigners who could potentially pose a terrorist menace to the Olympics,” an immigration official said. “It was possible with the close cooperation and intelligence sharing of spy agencies in 50 countries.”
He did not elaborate, but said the government will spare no effort to make the Olympics a success.
“We must be very thorough in counter-terrorism as athletes and people all over the world are coming to the PyeongChang Winter Olympics,” he said.
“We don’t rule out the possibility that foreign terrorists could enter (the country) by pretending to be Olympics travelers or hired workers at Korean companies. So we have to be vigilant before and during the Olympics.” [Korea Times]
I guess we will see where this leads, but Key Resolve is the joint military exercise that typically happens every March which would be the month after the Pyeongchang Olympics held in February 2018:
South Korea and the United States may consider postponing their joint military exercise as part of efforts to reduce tension and invite North Korea to the Winter Olympic Games to be held in South Korea, South Korean President Moon Jae-in said Tuesday.
Moon, however, said the move really depends on the way North Korea behaves.
“It is possible for South Korea and the U.S. to review the possibility of postponing the exercises. I have made such a suggestion to the U.S. and the U.S is currently reviewing it. However, all this depends on how North Korea behaves,” he said in an interview with U.S. broadcaster NBC on Tuesday (local time). [Yonhap]
Most of the world and the IOC fought to keep Apartheid South Africa out of the Olympics, but North Korea a country with a far worse human rights record and a threat to world peace has South Korea and the IOC literally begging them to participate:
International Olympic Committee President Thomas Bach is seeking to visit North Korea to discuss its participation in the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Games, South Korean government sources said Friday.
“The IOC is believed to be discussing with North Korea a possible trip by President Bach to Pyongyang for talks on the country’s participation in the PyeongChang Olympics,” a source said.
The IOC is seeking the visit based on close consultation with the South Korean government.
It remains to be seen, however, whether the North would accept Bach’s visit despite heightened tensions over its nuclear and missile tests. The North last week test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile that appeared capable of reaching Washington DC.
“There is no guarantee that the visit will take place. But if it does happen, it could be interpreted as a positive sign for North Korea’s participation in the PyeongChang Olympics,” another government source said, adding that there was a possibility of a lower level official of the IOC making the trip instead of Bach. [Korea Herald]
This seems like a pretty odd thing to say unless the US has some kind of intelligence that the North Koreans are going to commit some kind of provocation during the Winter Olympics:
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley said in an interview with Fox News that her country’s participation in the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics next February was an “open question” due to security concerns over North Korea, stirring worries in South Korea Friday that the Games could flop.
South Korea’s Blue House scrambled to rebut the idea, saying U.S. President Donald Trump had “promised” President Moon Jae-in during a recent phone call that his country would participate.
During an interview with Fox News’ “The Story with Martha MacCallum” on Wednesday, Haley said the U.S. government has not decided yet whether to participate in the games, adding, “What we will do is make sure we are taking every precaution possible to make sure” that American athletes are “safe and to know everything that’s going on around them.” [Joong Ang Ilbo]
You can read more at the link, but the North Koreans have not committed any provocation nearly as bad as what happened before the 1988 Olympics in Seoul when they bombed KAL Flight 858 killing 115 people. Despite that provocation the US still participated in the Seoul Olympics.
Lim Soo-kyung, a resident of the southwestern city of Gwangju, carries the torch for the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics at Jangbul Pass on the city’s Mount Mudeung on Nov. 24, 2017. The Olympic torch relay in South Korea, which began Nov. 1, will cover 2,018 kilometers — the same number as the year of the games. (Yonhap)
This photo, taken on Sept. 29, 2017, shows PyeongChang Olympic Stadium, the stage for the upcoming opening and closing ceremonies for the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Games, in PyeongChang, 180 kilometers east of Seoul. PyeongChang’s organizing committee said the 35,000-seat venue will be finished the following day, 22 months after the start of its construction. (Yonhap)
