Tag: Victor Cha

Long time Korea expert Victor Cha, who now teaches at Georgetown University, is a big advocate of trilateral cooperation between the U.S., South Korea, and Japan:

The three leaders agreed to “inaugurate a new era of trilateral partnership” to counter military threats from North Korea and “aggressive behavior” from China in the South China Sea, according to a joint statement at the time.

“As we embark together in this new era, our shared values will be our guide and a free and open Indo-Pacific, in which our half-billion people are safe and prosperous, will be our collective purpose,” the statement said.

Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force joined warships from the U.S. and South Korea in several military drills this year, including a ballistic missile defense exercise on Aug. 29 near Jeju Island, south of the Korean Peninsula.

The U.S., South Korea and Japan’s “institutionalization in the broader scope of cooperation really is unprecedented,” Cha said.

“It is transforming the U.S.-[South Korea] and U.S.-Japan alliances from being more than just private goods that provide exclusive benefits to allied partners, to also publicly benefit the world,” Cha added.

Stars & Stripes

You can read more at the link.

This has pretty much been the consensus from most people is that the nuclear test is going to happen sometime soon. I believe the Kim regime is trying to goad the Yoon administration into doing something retaliatory to their other provocations to justify the nuclear test. Canceling the Inter-Korean Military Agreement could be one of those triggers to conduct a nuclear test:

A North Korean nuclear test might be inevitable while China, despite its perceived influence in Pyongyang, may be unwilling to help prevent such a test from taking place, former U.S. nuclear negotiator Victor Cha said.

Cha also insisted that Beijing may not have the means to prevent North Korea from conducting a nuclear test even if it wanted to in a recent interview with Yonhap News Agency.

“I think it’s inevitable. I think it’s seventh nuclear test is inevitable and I think another Hwasong-17 (intercontinental ballistic missile) test using a solid fuel propeller, I think that’s inevitable because in the New Year speech, they said that,” said Cha, currently a senior vice president and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

Long time Korea analyst Victor Cha is making some bold predictions:

But there is bigger storm brewing behind these dark clouds that is threatening to the core of the U.S.-South Korea alliance. It has three components. The first is a nuclear deal with North Korea that is almost certain before Christmas now that John Bolton, the most influential voice in the Hanoi summit’s collapse, is out of the White House. This deal will probably not be a good one, in that its scope will be limited mostly to the Yongbyon nuclear facility; it will not be verifiable; and the U.S. will give too much in lifting sanctions. 

But both presidents Moon Jae-in and Donald Trump, who have both staked so much of their credibility on a deal with Kim, will not just accept a suboptimal deal, but will declare with it an end to hostilities on the Korean Peninsula in the form of a peace declaration. (……)

The perfect storm in the winter of 2019-2020, therefore, is a peace deal with North Korea and a failed cost-sharing negotiation that causes Trump to act on his beliefs. Specifically, his anger over Seoul’s refusal to pay no more than a fraction of the demand, coupled with an end-of-war declaration, will cause Trump to act on his 30-year long instinct to draw down or fully withdraw forces from South Korea. As ludicrous as this scenario may sound to experts, Trump would boast that the deal with North Korea is the “best deal ever” with his good friend Kim Jong-un; that he has ended the Korean War; and that he can now “bring the boys home” because there is peace in South Korea and the “ungrateful” South Koreans do not want to pay for U.S. troops. Moreover, he will tell his political base during the campaign that this move is saving money wasted on foreigners and therefore he is putting “America first.”

Chosun Ilbo

You can read more at the link.

Holy crap. https://t.co/XpxaELVerJ

— Victor Cha (@VictorDCha) June 12, 2018

Thoughtful piece by Scott Sagan on legal & mil consequences of preventive war : Bolton’s Illegal War Plan for North Korea https://t.co/s4DBOgJlCg

— Victor Cha (@VictorDCha) April 7, 2018

This January 2017 file photo shows former White House official Victor Cha giving a lecture during a seminar in Seoul. The United States has withdrawn Cha from consideration for ambassador to South Korea, a U.S. official said on Jan. 30, 2018. The U.S. decision came after the Washington Post earlier reported that Cha had expressed disagreement with the Trump administration’s consideration of a limited military strike on North Korea, as well as its threats to terminate a bilateral free trade agreement with South Korea. (Yonhap)

This is actually a name that has been floating out there for quite some time:

The Trump administration plans to name a Washington-based academic and former White House official, Victor Cha, as the next US ambassador to South Korea, an administration official said on Tuesday.

Cha is a former director for Asian affairs on the White House National Security Council and served as deputy head of the US delegation in multilateral talks with North Korea over its nuclear program during the administration of President George W. Bush.

An administration official said he expected the appointment, which will be subject to a Senate confirmation hearing, to be announced “soon,” and added that it had “been in the works for a long time.”  [Business Insider]

You can read more at the link, but his appointment is not going to make the academic crowd advocating for engagement with North Korea happy.

That is what this editorial in the Korea Times is claiming:

This means that who the next U.S. ambassador to Seoul will be is ever more important. He or she should be communicative with Koreans and have Trump’s trust ― giving a nudge when the president wobbles and making sure it gets noted. In that sense, Victor Cha, a former Bush operative and professor at Georgetown couldn’t be a worse candidate, according to five people in the know.

Putting their suggestions together, the result is Cha, who would act as if he were Caesar the Conqueror, trying to get his way no matter what at the risk of a great deal of friction with the Moon Jae-in government. That would be possible and dangerous because he, if appointed, would exert influence at key junctures when his boss was distracted, and the North’s asymmetric threat will peak. Some say that it is better now without a resident at Habib House in Seoul than Cha in it.  [Korea Times]

You can read the rest at link, but basically since Cha is not a supporter of engagement with North Korea the academics the Korea Times spoke with think he is a bad choice for US ambassador.

From a military perspective something that I know Victor Cha has pushed for in the past is to have Seoul take over OPCON of Korean forces.  This is something that left wing ROK presidents wanted in the past and then when the US called their bluff on this issue they started playing delay games until a conservative president took power and put it off entirely.  I think Cha would probably also be a strong advocate for the ROK to pay more for the US-ROK alliance which is another key President Trump initiative.

I mostly agree with Victor Cha’s assessment, however I think they will conduct short-range missile firings during the Key Resolve exercise in March like they have historically done in the past.  Larger provocations such as an ICBM or nuclear test I think will be done post-election in order to avoid helping elect a ROK conservative.  Plus by the end of the ROK election period, North Korea will have a better idea of what the Trump administration’s policy toward North Korea will be:

North Korea is exercising restraint from nuclear and missile tests to avoid galvanizing conservatives in South Korea ahead of a presidential election, and is certain to resume provocations once the leadership crisis in the South is resolved, a top U.S. expert on Korea said Tuesday.

The assessment from Victor Cha, a Georgetown University professor and Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, breaks with more common perceptions that Pyongyang is holding off on action until the new administration of U.S. President Donald Trump puts together its North Korea policy.

“Pyongyang carried out two (failed) medium-range ballistic missiles tests prior to President Trump’s election on October 15 and 20, 2016. The only reason they have not followed the election with an action, we believe, is because of the domestic political crisis in South Korea,” Cha said during a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing, referring to the North’s failed Musudan missile launches.

“That is, President Park Geun-hye’s political downfall and the potential for a progressive, pro-DPRK government coming to power in the South has complicated Pyongyang’s calculations as they do not want to take actions that might create ballast for the conservatives,” he said. “However, once this crisis of leadership in the South is resolved (or even before then), ballistic missile and nuclear tests are sure to follow.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.