Here is what the ROK Defense Minister had to say about any possible reductions in the size of USFK:
South Korean Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo has ensured there will be no reduction of U.S. troops in South Korea.
Meeting with reporters during his visit to Joint Base Meyer in Arlington, Virginia on Tuesday, the minister addressed speculations of a possible downsizing of U.S. Forces Korea triggered by ongoing upgrades of South Korea’s military weapons system.
He said the augmentation of the forces is to further enhance the South Korean military’s capacity.
You can read more at the link, but as I have always said, any reduction of USFK would likely happen after a peace treaty is signed. The left wing activist groups in South Korea will use a peace treaty as an excuse to protest the continued presence of USFK. These protests would be intended to make life difficult for US troops just like it currently is for the troops stationed at the THAAD site in South Korea.
The US Navy aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan moored at the Yokosuka US Naval Base, in Tokyo, in May 2017.
The “Cost Plus 50” formula means the White House is aiming for allies to pay 100 percent of U.S. stationing costs plus a premium of 50 percent on top of that. While there are arguments to be made about whether such a goal is even achievable (spoiler alert: it is not), it is important to highlight some of the bad assumptions that underwrite the belief that “allies don’t pay enough.” (……..)
Bad assumption 4: It is easy to tally up the cost of stationing forces overseas. Reality: For the administration to demand Cost Plus 50, it must first assess how much it actually costs to station forces overseas. Take it from a former alliance manager who has run the “cost drill,” there are simply too many inputs to produce a figure without arbitrarily making decisions on what to include or exclude. Do you include the salaries of overseas service members? What about costs for moving personnel and their families? How about rotational units who are only in a host nation for a few months out of the year? Do you add the cost of running overseas schools for dependent family members? Commissaries? Recreation areas? Uniform clothing sales stores? How about research and development for the equipment that is stationed there? Should a country pay more if it has F-35s instead of F-16s or ballistic missile defense-capable destroyers instead of non-BMD capable ones? The list goes on and on, and even then, the list ignores things like sunk costs and the fact those forces are overseas for U.S. interests.
S. Korea, U.S. sign deal on defense cost-sharingSouth Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha (R) shakes hands with U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Harry Harris during a ceremony at the Foreign Ministry in Seoul on March 8, 2019, to sign the Special Measures Agreement, a cost-sharing contract. The new deal calls for an 8.2 percent increase in Seoul’s contribution to some 1.04 trillion won (US$920 million) over a year. (Yonhap)
The next US-ROK cost sharing negotiations will be very interesting if this demand is made:
The US Navy aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan moored at the Yokosuka US Naval Base, in Tokyo, in May 2017.
For years, President Donald Trump has complained that countries hosting American troops aren’t paying enough. Now he wants to get even, and then some.
Under White House direction, the administration is drawing up demands that Germany, Japan and eventually any other country hosting U.S. troops pay the full price of American soldiers deployed on their soil — plus 50 percent or more for the privilege of hosting them, according to a dozen administration officials and people briefed on the matter. (…….)
Victor Cha, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said the administration was sending a deliberate message by demanding “Cost Plus 50” from South Korea first, even though that effort fell short. “We have a more integrated military with South Korea than with any other ally,” Cha said. “To send this message to a front-line Cold War ally is trying to say very clearly that they want a paradigm shift with the way they do host-nation support.” [Bloomberg]
I doubt we will ever know, but it would interesting to see how much money is in fact saved with the changes to the joint exercise schedule?:
U.S. President Donald Trump said Sunday that he doesn’t want military exercises between the U.S. and South Korea because they are expensive and unhelpful for diplomacy with North Korea. Trump made the remark on Twitter a day after the allies announced an end to two major combined exercises — Key Resolve and Foal Eagle. “The reason I do not want military drills with South Korea is to save hundreds of millions of dollars for the U.S. for which we are not reimbursed,” Trump tweeted. “That was my position long before I became President. Also, reducing tensions with North Korea at this time is a good thing!”
From one who served in Korea: US & ROK forces are interdependent. We provide the logistics & firepower, they provide the infantry. If we don't train together, we can't work together or protect each other. This endangers South Korea's security & the safety of our troops. https://t.co/SEIRdB3pZX
I guess someone must have realized how lame renaming Key Resolve to the “19-1 Exercise” was and have instead now named it the “Dong Maeng” exercise:
South Korea and the United States will launch the new Dong Maeng combined exercise this week to replace their springtime Key Resolve drills, their militaries announced Sunday. Seoul’s Joint chiefs of Staff (JCS) and the South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command (CFC) said that the nine-day command post exercise kicks off on Monday, two days after the allies’ defense chiefs decided to end the annual Key Resolve and Foal Eagle maneuvers to back diplomacy for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. “Dong Maeng, which means alliance in English, has been modified from the previously held spring exercises Key Resolve and Foal Eagle and will focus on strategic, operational and tactical aspects of general military operations on the Korean Peninsula,” they said in a joint press release. Seoul’s JCS Chairman Gen. Park Han-ki and CFC Commander Gen. Robert Abrams jointly said that the upcoming exercise is important for professional armies to train and maintain “a standard of readiness.” “These exercises are crucial in sustaining and strengthening the alliance,” they were quoted as saying. With the Key Resolve effectively supplanted by the new exercise, the allies are expected to conduct low-key battalion-or lower-level drills in place of the Foal Eagle field training throughout the year.
I wonder if President Trump is given briefing notes to review before he talks because this is a big difference in numbers he misstated:
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a Cabinet meeting at the White House, Tuesday (local time.) / AP
U.S. President Donald Trump said South Korea’s payment for the U.S. troop presence will increase further only days after both sides signed a one-year deal for the defense cost sharing.
“Working with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Adviser John Bolton, they (South Korea) agreed to pay, yesterday, $500 million (560 billion) more toward their defense,” Trump said in a Cabinet meeting, Tuesday (local time).
On Sunday, Seoul and Washington signed the one-year provisional deal on defense cost sharing, called the Special Measures Agreement (SMA) for the upkeep of United States Forces Korea (USFK).
Under the 2019 SMA, the South will pay 1.04 trillion won toward the upkeep of stationing 28,500 U.S. troops here, up 8.2 percent from the previous year. This is an increase of 78.7 billion won, compared with last year, not the amount stated by Trump.
It remains unclear why the U.S. president made the remark with such an obviously factual error. But it is highly likely that he overstated the amount to score a political point there and raise his approval rating.
S. Korea, U.S. sign defense cost dealChang Won-sam (R), the chief South Korean negotiator for defense cost talks, and his U.S. counterpart Timothy Betts sign a provisional defense cost-sharing deal on Feb. 10, 2019, at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Seoul. (Yonhap)
It looks like the next US-ROK military exercise will be delayed:
China’s state-run Xinhua news agency says the decision by South Korea and the U.S. to delay their announcement on joint military drill plans to after the North Korea-U.S. summit is in consideration of Pyongyang.
The report said Saturday the postponement appears to have considered North Korea’s possible reaction to the joint drills ahead of its summit with Washington.
It noted the regime has criticized South Korea-U.S. exercises as rehearsals for invading the North.
Xinhua said the decision to delay the announcement likely reflects the belief that ongoing working-level negotiations between the North and the U.S. may be affected.
The report added that at the time of the first North Korea-U.S. summit last year, Seoul and Washington also pushed back their joint drills to after the summit meeting.