The closure of the nuclear test site is nothing, but a show that can be easily reversed; shipping nuclear materials out of the country is a real sign of denuclearization because this is cannot be reversed:
The United States has demanded that North Korea ship some of its nuclear weapons, fissile material and long-range missiles out of the country within months after next month’s summit between the two countries, sources said Sunday.
The U.S. made the demand during talks with the North to fine-tune the agenda of the summit between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un set for June 12 summit in Singapore, saying sanctions won’t be relaxed unless the demand is met, the sources said.
The North’s response to the demand is not known, they said.
The demand suggests that the U.S. believes the North’s pledge to suspend nuclear and missile testing is not enough and the communist nation should do more to demonstrate its commitment to abandon its nuclear and missile programs. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but if the Kim regime agrees to begin shipping nuclear weapons and material out of their country than we know they are in fact serious about denuclearization.
Here is what Anthony Ruggiero, a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies says that President Trump must be prepared to do at his upcoming summit with Kim Jong-un:
Anthony Ruggiero
The Panmunjom Declaration, issued after the late April meeting between Kim and South Korean President Moon Jae In, feels like a Hollywood movie remake with new actors but the same tired story. North Korea has pledged on multiple occasions to not to acquire nuclear weapons, beginning with the North’s accession to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1985. In 1992, Kim’s grandfather committed to three no’s: no nuclear weapons, no nuclear reprocessing and no uranium enrichment. North Korea was caught red-handed cheating multiple times on all three nuclear no’s, but still received security assurances from the United States in 2005, when both sides pledged “to respect each other’s sovereignty, exist peacefully together” and normalize relations. All of these efforts ended in the same place, with a different Kim breaking his promises and enjoying tangible concessions from the United States and its allies.
To counter Kim’s smile diplomacy and avoid his trap, the Trump administration should take four lessons from prior negotiations with North Korea, Libya and Iran. [Politico]
You can read the rest at the link, but Ruggiero’s four lessons are:
Be prepared to walkaway from the table.
Nuclear only deal do not solve the strategic issues.
U.S. President Donald Trump said Thursday that his meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will take place in Singapore June 12.
“The highly anticipated meeting between Kim Jong Un and myself will take place in Singapore on June 12th,” Trump tweeted. “We will both try to make it a very special moment for World Peace!”
Trump’s tweet came just hours after three American citizens were brought home from imprisonment in the communist country.
Their release cleared a major obstacle for the upcoming meeting, which will be the first between sitting leaders of the two countries.
Trump and Kim are expected to discuss the dismantlement of the regime’s nuclear weapons program.
Trump’s aim is the complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization of North Korea. Kim has repeatedly expressed his commitment to denuclearization, but it’s unclear on what terms. [Yonhap]
I wonder how many Americans had to look on a map after hearing this news to figure out where Singapore is?
President Trump is as expected getting bashed for pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal with claims that it will impact his ability to negotiate with Kim Jong-un:
President Donald Trump announces Iran nuclear deal withdrawal. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal is a major setback to US negotiating credibility and will complicate efforts to reach an agreement with Pyongyang over its own more advanced weapons programme, analysts say.
Trump is set to hold a much-anticipated and unprecedented summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in the coming weeks to negotiate over Pyongyang’s arsenal, after it last year carried out by far its most powerful nuclear test to date and launched missiles capable of reaching the U.S. mainland.
But the US president Tuesday pulled Washington out of the 2015 accord with Teheran, pouring scorn on the “disastrous” agreement and describing it an “embarrassment” to the United States ― although European signatories and the IAEA say Iran has complied with its obligations.
Antony Blinken, who was deputy secretary of state under Barack Obama, said the White House move “makes getting to yes with North Korea that much more challenging”.
“Why would Kim … believe any commitments President Trump makes when he arbitrarily tears up an agreement with which the other party is complying?” he asked on Twitter. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but it can be argued that if the Obama administration thought the Iran nuclear deal was so great why did they not try and lobby the Senate to consent to the treaty as the Constitution requires? Consent from the Senate would have made it much harder for the President to withdraw from the treaty. This is what I will be looking for if President Trump is able to strike a deal with the North Koreans; will he try to get consent from the Senate?
As far as impacts to negotiating with Kim Jong-un, I think it is arguable that Trump is sending a message that North Korea will need to agree to denuclearize or there will not be a deal.
This is why North Korea likes to detain Americans, they make great bargaining chips when negotiations like the ones going on now happen:
The U.S. government is looking into reports that three Americans detained in North Korea have been relocated from a labor camp to a hotel near Pyongyang ahead of a planned summit between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, a U.S. official said on Wednesday.
The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said there was no immediate confirmation of any change in the detainees’ status. Trump administration officials have pressed for their release as a show of goodwill by North Korea before the unprecedented U.S.-North Korea summit expected in late May or early June.
“As everybody is aware, the past Administration has long been asking for three hostages to be released from a North Korean Labor camp, but to no avail. Stay tuned!” Trump said in a Twitter post late on Wednesday.
CNN, in a report on Thursday, cited an unnamed source saying the release of the three men was imminent, adding that the groundwork for the move came two months ago when North Korea’s foreign minister traveled to Sweden and proposed the idea.
South Korean media reports on Wednesday quoted a South Korean activist as saying North Korea had relocated the three Americans from a labor camp to a hotel on the outskirts of Pyongyang. Choi Soung-yong, the activist, told Reuters that Kim Hak-song, Tony Kim and Kim Dong-chul were moved in early April following instructions from superior authorities, citing residents in Pyongyang. [Reuters]
You can read more at the link, but despite a clear risk of being a long term detainee for committing the smallest of offenses, we will probably continue to see Americans in future go over to North Korea and get detained.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s televised summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Friday was spectacularly effective as pageantry aimed at South Koreans fearful of a U.S. attack on North Korea — and spectacularly empty in terms of meaningful commitment by the North to denuclearization. In fact, everything Kim put on the table was designed to reaffirm North Korea’s status as a nuclear weapons state and dilute Chinese and South Korean support for sanctions. Many veterans of negotiations with North Korea worry that Kim is now getting ready to play the United States. While the Trump administration’s tough sanctions no doubt had some role in pushing the North toward this summitry, one can also imagine exactly how this was a scenario the North itself sought from the beginning. [Foreign Policy]
Green then goes on to write a satire email from Vice Marshall Kim Jong Gak, director of the Political Bureau, Korean People’s Army to Kim Jong-un on their peace strategy. Here is an excerpt from the email:
You will pledge seemingly historic commitments that are all unverifiable and easily reversed, many of which we have deployed successfully in past negotiations. These include your commitment (like your father’s and grandfather’s) to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, your pledge to join the global quest for denuclearization as the other nuclear weapons states have pledged to do under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, a promise not to transfer nuclear weapons to third parties, a no-first use pledge, and a promise to halt testing and to shut down our nuclear test site at Punggye-ri (for added drama, you might invite inspectors to the facility).
These commitments all parrot the aspirations of the current members of the nuclear weapons club and will thus confirm our membership in that club as we negotiate arms control with the Americans as a fellow nuclear weapons state. We, of course, made no commitment to cease production and deployment of our deterrent. We can easily reverse all these steps later, at the time of our choosing, yet already many in the imperialist and puppet media are proclaiming these meaningless declarations on your part to be a historic breakthrough.
I recommend reading the whole thing at the link, but as I have been saying since this whole peace initiative began, the Kim regime was conducting a facade. The North Koreans are very good at executing facades and Kim Jong-un has shown a particularly great talent for it, so much so that he has most in the international media believing every word he is saying.
The short term goal of this facade is to create a perception of progress towards peace and denuclearization on the peninsula to justify South Korea reopening the Kaesong Industrial Park, restarting joint tourism projects, and other inter-Korean cooperation initiatives that will be huge cash cows for the Kim regime. In return the Kim regime will pretend to denuclearize and make other commitments that can easily be reversed at a time of their choosing.
The Kim regime’s long term goal backed by China is to get the United States out of South Korea. That is why there has been such a strategic messaging emphasis on a peace treaty to end the Korean War. If there is a peace treaty South Korean leftists could argue why US forces are still needed in South Korea? The Kim regime’s even longer term goal is to separate the US from Japan as well with their surrogates in the media already pushing ideas of removing the US nuclear umbrella for Japan as part of any denuclearization agreement.
The wild card in all of this is President Donald Trump. South Korea, China, Russia, and most in the international community are willing to pretend denuclearization and a lasting peace is happening. Will the United States? For all we know President Trump could be conducting his own facade. For the US to get international consensus to conduct any strike against North Korea all options will have to be exhausted. Since this supposed peace process has began President Trump has been saying all the right things and being very reasonable even agreeing to meet with Kim Jong-un.
Going into the negotiations President Trump could be very solid about stringent inspections to ensure denuclearization compliance. If the Kim regime does not agree to stringent inspections or agrees and then plays their old tricks against inspectors than President Trump could have his rationale to strike North Korea. Or maybe President Trump is willing to go along with the facade to get a Nobel Peace Prize like his rival Barack Obama did and then let some other future US president deal with the consequences when Pyongyang ultimately reneges on the deal. Time will tell but the next 1-2 years should continue to be interesting times on the peninsula as everyone involved continues to play their role in this great facade.
It seems to me people are getting way ahead of themselves in regards to the upcoming Inter-Korean Summit ending the Korean War:
South and North Korea are discussing plans to announce an official end to the military conflict between the two countries that are still technically at war, the Munhwa Ilbo newspaper reported, citing an unidentified South Korean official.
At next week’s summit between South Korea President Moon Jae-in and North Korea leader Kim Jong Un, the two neighbors may release a joint statement saying they will seek to ease military tension and to end confrontation, according to the report. [Bloomberg]
Before people get all euphoric about the end of the Korean War it is important to realize South Korea cannot negotiate an end to the Korean War because they are not a signatory to the Armistice Agreement. They will need China, the United States, and United Nations to agree to it as well. So what exactly is being negotiated?:
“We are devising and discussing various ways to develop the security situation surrounding the peninsula into a permanent peace regime,” the official said on condition of anonymity. “One such way may be changing the armistice agreement to a peace treaty, and we are reviewing the possibility of it.”
But he said South Korea alone cannot decide on ending the war as the issue requires close discussion with countries directly involved, including North Korea.
Although the armistice was signed by North Korea, China and the United Nations Command, without South Korea, the official said it is undeniable South Korea is one of the countries directly involved.
“But the two Koreas alone cannot decide on signing a peace treaty, so we may have to seek a three-party or four-party agreement if necessary.”
He noted that when Moon’s special envoys visited Pyongyang in March, Kim himself said his country would not take military action against the South.
“In the joint declaration to be announced by Moon and Kim after the summit, we want to include an agreement to ban hostilities, although it is not known yet whether we can use the term ‘end of the war,'” the official said. “However, we expect to include such an agreement in some form of expression.” [Korea Times]
That is the key term being negotiated, “a ban on hostilities”. I would be surprised if President Trump signs up for a peace treaty ending the war without verifiable denuclearization by North Korea. The Kim regime probably understands this as well. I think what the Kim regime may be trying to do is at least get an agreement to ban hostilities in order to make it more difficult for President Trump to launch a strike when they inevitably break whatever agreement they sign up for.
If the past is any indication of the future, they will break the agreement after receiving the aid they want and blame the US or ROK for its failure for some imaginary reason. The ban on hostilities could then possibly constrain the US President from responding militarily while the Kim regime continues to break the agreement. If the US does strike anyway the Kim regime can then claim that the US broke the hostility agreement and thus justify them expanding their nuclear program and taking whatever hostilities they want. In the minds of the Kim regime, they win either way.
That is what is being floated as a possible reward for denuclearization:
What would the United States give North Korea in return for denuclearization?
The Trump administration is now detailing a compensation package for the Kim Jong-un regime that would significantly boost economic and diplomatic sectors, the Dong-A Ilbo daily reported on Thursday, citing government sources.
The newspaper said if the Trump-Kim summit is a success, the U.S. is willing to open a liaison office and an embassy in Pyongyang, and start humanitarian aid.
The two countries discussed the issues during working-level talks, the paper said.
Meanwhile, South Korea’s top national security adviser is visiting Washington to meet his U.S. counterpart John Bolton, the White House said. [Korea Times via a reader tip]
Here is the first major issue the US and the North Korea need to work out:
The North Koreans, in unpublicised meetings with the Americans, are saying they want Trump to see Kim in Pyongyang. The Americans, of course, do not want Trump visiting North Korea, where Kim would be in the role of a head of state receiving the American guest as a supplicant seeking his approval.
Instead, in conversations via the CIA, the Americans are pressing for the talks to be held in the capital of a third country or in the truce village of Panmunjom on the North-South line, 60km north of Seoul. That’s where South Korean President Moon Jae-in is due to meet Kim on April 27, and the Americans see no reason why Kim cannot go to Panmunjom for his summit with Trump, tentatively agreed upon to take place in May.
The Americans see the idea of Trump going to Pyongyang as another attempt on the part of Kim and his team of strategists to create obstructions to any serious attempt at negotiating an end to the North’s nuclear programme. It might seem inconceivable that Trump would go to Pyongyang to meet Kim, but what if North Korea refused to budge?
Would the result be no summit – and North and South Korea both blaming the US for refusing to accommodate North Korea’s demands? Or would North Korea, if sincerely interested in a summit, accept other suggestions? [South China Morning Post]
You can read more at the link, but I think the North Koreans are refusing to budge from holding the summit in Pyongyang because they want to first see what the Americans have to offer. If prior negotiations show the US not willing to make the concessions they want, the Kim regime can continue to demand that Pyongyang be the location of the summit in order to kill it and then blame the Americans for its failure.
If the Kim regime does continue to demand to hold the summit at Pyongyang, then I think President Trump should fly to South Korea and visit Panmunjom and tell Kim Jong-un when he will be there to put the onus back on him for not meeting him.
