we are nearing the point where the u.s. will need to decide whether to acknowledge that the dprk isn’t disarming and never agreed to, or get angry that the dprk is breaking promises it never made https://t.co/NyMRRAq35b
So will this be the visit where the Trump administration gives in and allows sanctions to be dropped against North Korea for little to nothing in return? I guess we will see:
Mike Pompeo
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s upcoming Pyongyang visit is expected to break the ongoing political stalemate surrounding the timeline of North Korea’s denuclearization, experts said Monday.
The sign of hope comes at a time when no outstanding progress has been made over the issue following the historic June 12 summit between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
A specific timeline for Pompeo’s visit to the North Korean capital has yet to be confirmed. But with U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton saying recently that Pompeo will “soon” make his fourth visit to Pyongyang, expectations are he will visit the regime sometime between the end of this month and the beginning of next month.
“Pompeo has failed to generate specific outcomes over the denuclearization dialogue with North Korea during his previous visits to Pyongyang,” said Kim Sang-ki, director at the Korea Institute for National Unification’s policy division.
“My view is that his upcoming visit is aimed at creating tangible achievements to put an end to the ongoing deadlock in denuclearization talks with North Korea. In this regard, Washington may push for conditions that would lead to declaring an end to the 1950-53 Korean War.” [Korea Times]
As I and many have been saying for years, the Kim regime is not going to denuclearize:
Anchor: A U.S. news Web site says the Trump administration has presented North Korea with a formal timeline for starting the process of denuclearization. The report comes as the U.S. and North Korea are witnessing a stalemate in their nuclear negotiations and Washington seems to have adopted a carrot-and-stick approach towards Pyongyang.
Our Bae Joo-yon has more.
Report: U.S. news Web site Vox reported on Wednesday that Washington had proposed Pyongyang hand over 60 to 70 percent of its nuclear weapons within six to eight months, after which the U.S. or a third party would take possession of the warheads and remove them from the North.
According to the report, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo presented the plan to North Korean negotiators multiple times over the past two months, but the North’s delegation, led by senior official Kim Yong-chol, has turned down Pompeo’s proposal each time.
Vox said that “it’s unclear what concessions, if any, the U.S. would offer in exchange beyond sanctions relief or removing North Korea from the state sponsors of terrorism list.”
Given that Pyongyang has yet to disclose to Washington just how many nuclear bombs it has, it would be difficult to verify the North’s arsenal volume even if it did agree to hand over what it claims to be 60 to 70 percent of its arsenal.
One source told Vox that Pompeo’s main goal in this stage of the negotiations is solely to get Pyongyang to officially reveal how many nuclear weapons it has. [KBS World Radio]
You can read more at the link, but I really hope I am wrong one day about this and the Kim regime decides to give up all their nuclear weapons, but judging from past history and current statements it appears to be unlikely.
What the Kim regime is willing to do is pretend to denuclearize like they did during past US presidential administrations. They will do this to create the myth that “progress” is happening to denuclearize North Korea. In return for pretending to denuclearize the Kim regime would want the sanctions dropped. In such a scenario President Trump would probably get his Nobel Peace Prize for signing a pretend denuclearization agreement, the Moon Jae-in administration in South Korea could then start pumping cash into North Korea, and the Kim regime can then use the funds to hand out cash to the regime elite and further modernize the military.
Signing up to such an agreement may sound ridiculous, but remember the US has signed up for pretend denuclearization deals not once, but twice! The first was the Agreed Framework during the Clinton administration and then the Six Party Talks deal during the Bush administration. Will there be a third one? Time will tell.
Jenny Jin of the U.S. Defense POW/MIA Accounting Agency speaks in an interview with Yonhap in Washington on Aug. 8, 2018. The forensic scientist of Korean descent is in charge of identifying the remains of U.S. soldiers killed during the Korean War repatriated by North Korea. (Yonhap)
North Korea reiterated its demand Thursday for the United States to agree to declare an end to the 1950-53 Korean War, saying that it would help bring in peace and create mutual trust.
Declaring an end to the Korean War is “the demand of our time” and will be the “first process” toward a peace and security guarantee, the Rodong Sinmun, the official newspaper of the Workers’ Party of Korea, said in a commentary.
The newspaper added that it is “abnormal” to see distrust and animosity going on between the North and the U.S. even now, saying that it is time to take action toward declaring an end to the war. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but the Kim regime wants to end the Korean War and get a peace treaty signed because then that would justify demands to withdraw USFK from the peninsula. With the end of the US-ROK alliance the ROK and North Korea can move forward with their confederation idea which will essentially lead to unification on the Kim regime’s terms.
However, the Trump administration has made it clear that no peace treaty will be offered until real denuclearization happens. Over the coming year I guess we will see who blinks first.
I would argue that the fact the US has to voice confidence in South Korea’s willingness to enforce sanctions on North Korea shows there is some doubt and thus they need reminding:
The United States on Wednesday voiced confidence in South Korea’s implementation of sanctions against North Korea amid reports a shipment of North Korean coal docked at a South Korean port.
U.S. broadcaster VOA reported that a Belize-flagged ship docked at South Korea’s southeastern port city of Pohang over the weekend after being spotted at the Russian port of Nakhodka with black material believed to be North Korean coal.
U.N. Security Council Resolution 2371 bans North Korean exports of coal and other mineral resources that could generate revenue for the regime’s development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. U.N. member states are also required to stop and inspect vessels suspected of engaging in illicit activities with the North. [Yonhap]
This article sent to me via a reader tip is a couple of months old, but it is yet another example of what the Moon administration really want to do with the US-ROK alliance even though officially they will say something different:
Chung In Moon, a special adviser to President Moon Jae In for foreign affairs and national security
A top adviser to South Korea’s president says he would eventually like to see the U.S.–South Korea alliance end. In language that sounded almost Trump-like, Chung In Moon, a special adviser to President Moon Jae In for foreign affairs and national security, said in an interview that alliances in general are a “very unnatural state of international relations” and said that, “for me, the best thing is to really get rid of alliance.” In the meantime, he says, he “strongly” supports “the continued presence of American forces” in Korea, despite hoping for an arrangement that he thinks would better serve his nation’s interests.
It was a remarkable statement coming from a South Korean official who is playing a prominent advisory role in current negotiations over North Korea’s nuclear program. South Korea has relied on its U.S. alliance since the 1950s to deter threats from its north—and the fate of that partnership, which North Korea has long sought to end, has been a contentious question as a summit between Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump approaches. U.S. and South Korean officials have repeatedly insisted that the alliance is not a bargaining chip with North Korea. And Moon, who presented his ideas as his personal views, was discussing the future of the alliance as a theoretical question about Asia’s security architecture, not as a matter to be determined in nuclear talks. But his comments nevertheless suggested that if those talks succeed and overhaul geopolitics on the Korean peninsula, the alliance could come due for a reckoning. [The Atlantic]
You can read much more at the link, but President Moon is a very skilled politician that needs to keep the Korean right at bay and public anxiety down. If he advocated openly for a USFK withdrawal that would give the South Korean right an issue to strongly attack him with and cause much public anxiety after decades of security guarantees provided by US forces.
However, if a peace treaty is signed to end the Korean War do not be surprised if the Moon administration allows left wing groups begin to put pressure on the US to withdraw. Think of it as a macro version of the current THAAD issue. The left wing groups have protested and sealed off the THAAD site making life difficult for the soldiers there. The Korean government could easily end the blockade, but choose not to. What if in the future if these groups are allowed to blockade and make life difficult for US personnel at for example Camp Humphreys?
President Moon will say all the right things that he supports USFK, just like he supposedly supports the THAAD site, but will set conditions to make it difficult for its continued existence.
I would not be surprised if there is more to this story then what is being reported:
The U.S. government deported a Mexican woman on Friday who had lived in the country illegally for nearly two decades despite efforts by lawmakers to keep her in Florida with her husband, a Marine Corps veteran, and her two American children.
Alejandra Juarez, 38, was joined by her family and her congressman, Darren Soto, at Orlando International Airport for tearful farewells before her flight back to Mexico.
Juarez sought to illegally enter the United States in 1998 and was ordered to be removed, precluding her future chances at getting a visa or becoming a citizen, according to Soto and media interviews Juarez has given.
She illegally re-entered the country in 2000, the same year she married Temo Juarez, a Mexico native who went on to serve in the war in Iraq with the U.S. Marines and is now a naturalized U.S. citizen.
After being discovered in the country during a 2013 traffic stop, she had been required to check in every six months with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officials. [Reuters]
You can read the rest at the link if you want to read all the anti-Trump stuff even though her deportation process began under the Obama administration.
I feel bad for the kids, but their parents had nearly 20 years to work on her immigration status which leads me to believe there is more to this story. With that said should illegal immigrant wives of US military servicemembers receive special immigration status? That is basically the argument being made here.
We could all see this coming, the leftists in the Moon administration want to get special exceptions to the international sanctions on North Korea:
South Korea’s Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha (R) shakes hands with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo before their talks in New York on July 20, 2018, in this photo provided by the Joint Press Corps. (Yonhap)
South Korea’s Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha on Monday rejected concerns about Seoul’s alleged move to ease international sanctions on Pyongyang, saying it is seeking an “exception” to facilitate cross-border exchanges.
Kang made the remarks upon arrival from her visit to the United States, amid media speculation that she stressed the need for an easing of the sanctions during her meetings with the U.N. Security Council member states.
“Now is not a phase when sanctions are being eased. … It is not an easing of sanctions,” the minister said. “(What I stressed) was to get exceptions from the sanctions, which are needed for inter-Korean projects.”
Since early this year, concerns have persisted that Seoul’s push for an increase in cross-border exchanges could contribute to an unraveling of the sanctions regime, which analysts said has helped Pyongyang change its calculus on its nuclear program.
Asked about whether her visit to the U.S. this time was aimed at playing a role as an intermediary between Washington and Pyongyang, Kang stressed the importance of communication between the allies. [Yonhap]
If the Trump administration allows the easing of sanctions that would allow the reopening of the Kaesong Industrial Complex and the joint-tourism projects in North Korea they might as well scrap the sanctions all together. These former joint-projects were major generators of foreign revenue for the Kim regime that gave them the resources necessary to develop their nuclear program in the first place.
Wouldn’t it be great if when Secretary of State Pompeo meets with Kang Kyung-wha he instead briefs her on a plan to introduce new sanctions due to nothing significant having been reaching on North Korea’s denuclearization?
Like I have been maintaining, I don’t think anyone should panic unless sanctions are dropped for little to nothing in return from North Korea. This recent announcement suggests the sanctions will remain in place:
This photo, taken July 25, 2018, shows Deputy Minister for National Defense Policy, Yeo Suk-joo (R), shaking hands with Roberta Shea, acting deputy assistant secretary of defense at the 14th Korea-U.S. Integrated Defense Dialogue in Seoul. (Yonhap)
South Korea and the United States agreed Thursday to keep enforcing sanctions against North Korea until it takes “concrete, verifiable” steps toward denuclearization, during their biannual working-level defense talks.
During the 14th Korea-U.S. Integrated Defense Dialogue (KIDD) in Seoul, the two sides also shared the view that there is a need to continuously explore ways to build trust with Pyongyang as long as the communist state maintains a “good-will” dialogue.
Seoul’s defense ministry announced the outcome of the two-day talks. Deputy Minister for National Defense Policy, Yeo Suk-joo, represented the South Korean side, while Roberta Shea, acting deputy assistant secretary of defense, led the U.S. delegation.
During the talks, the two sides mentioned “meaningful progress” following two inter-Korean summits in April and May and last month’s U.S.-North Korea summit despite concerns over a perceived lack of progress in the North’s denuclearization process. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but I wonder what the Moon administration’s definition of “concrete, verifiable” steps is?
