Tag: United States

Here is the latest on the Trump phone call with the President of Taiwan that the media was initially trying to frame as him bungling US foreign policy:

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s phone call with Taiwan’s president shows the incoming administration believes China should work hard on North Korea as much as it cares about the cross-strait issue, a transition team official was quoted as saying Tuesday.

The official made the remark during a meeting with a group of South Korean lawmakers, pointing out that China has been unwilling to use its influence over Pyongyang even though Beijing provides most of the North’s energy and food supplies, according to the participating lawmakers.

They declined to identify the official.

On Friday, Trump spoke by phone with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, breaking the decadeslong diplomatic tradition that the U.S. has kept under its “One China” policy since severing ties with Taiwan and normalizing relations with Beijing.

China considers Taiwan a renegade province that must be unified with the mainland and rails against any support for Taiwan’s independence or the notion that the island is not part of the country. Despite the absence of formal diplomatic ties, the U.S. has maintained friendly relations with Taiwan.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

Packing up at the @USEmbassySeoul election party. pic.twitter.com/0XR7rYxRVu

— James Pearson (@pearswick) November 9, 2016

It was an amazing US election to see Donald Trump defy expectations and win the US Presidency over Hillary Clinton.  Congratulations to him and his campaign team.  His election will definitely be something that political scientists will be talking about for decades to come.  By the way I thought his acceptance speech was really good:

“Now it’s time for America to bind the wounds of division, have to get together. To all Republicans and Democrats and independents across this nation, I say it is time for us to come together as one united people. I pledge to every citizen of our land that I will be president for all Americans,” he said.

To countries around the world, Trump said, “While we will always put America’s interests first, we will deal fairly with everyone, with everyone.”

“All people and all other nations. We will seek common ground, not hostility, partnership, not conflict,” he said.  [Yonhap]

Here is what South Korean President Park Geun-hye had to say about the election of Donald Trump:

The commander-in-chief made the remarks during a briefing on the outcome of the National Security Council (NSC) session after Republican Donald Trump won the White House in a hard-fought race against Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.

“Given the United States is our ally and that the South Korea-U.S. relationship has a great impact on our diplomacy, security and economy, I think we need to extensively explore ways to develop close relations with the incoming Trump administration,” she said.

“In light of the grave situation in which North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats are growing day by day, I call on you to establish cooperative ties with the incoming U.S. administration early in the stage of the government transition,” she added.  [Yonhap]

So what does Donald Trump’s victory mean for the people of South Korea who were deeply against the election of Trump?  Here are my quick thoughts on the biggest areas that the ROK should expect possible impacts on:

• USFK Cost Sharing: Donald Trump has made no secret of his desire to see US allies pay more to support US forces.  To keep this campaign promise I would expect that Trump will ask that South Korea pay more for the upkeep of US forces.  Currently the ROK pays about 50% for upkeep while Japan pays about 75%.  I would expect that South Korea will be asked to pay a number closer to what Japan pays.

• US-ROK Free Trade Agreement: Due to Trump’s election victory the Korean stock market has tanked.  The market tanked because of fears that Trump will want to renegotiate the US-Korea Free Trade Agreement:A key concern is Trump’s “America first” position that includes a preference for trade protectionism.“The market will inevitably face a short-term adjustment if Trump wins,” said Kim Ji-na, a fixed income analyst at IBK Securities. “There’s even a possibility that the 1,900 barrier could fall as Trump’s victory will only raise instability and bring about policy risks.”The bigger concern is that Korea’s economy, which has been facing tough times due to shrinking exports, will suffer heavily.“The Trump victory will not only act as a potential risk for the Korean market but also the global economy,” said Hwang Na-young, a Woori Finance Research Institute researcher. “Once Trump and the Republicans take over, most of the major policies of the Barack Obama years will be reversed: repealing Obamacare, huge tax cuts, easing of financial regulations and a preference for fossil fuel.

  “Major changes are likely in regards to trade policies as protectionism deepens on top of an isolationist approach to diplomatic polices.”  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

  Here are some facts and figures about Korea-US trade from the Joong Ang Ilbo article:

• I would be surprised if Trump makes it a priority to go after the US-ROK FTA.  Considering the amount of manufacturing jobs brought to the US from Korean car manufacturers it seems the US-ROK FTA is a deal he would want to keep in place.  I think his immediate focus will be on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the North American Free Trade Agreements (NAFTA) which he has been highly critical of.

• North Korea Nuclear Issue: I don’t see Trump wanting to make any nuclear agreement with Kim Jong-un considering the country’s past track record of violating the agreements.  What I do think he will do is push for more sanctions against Chinese banks and businesses in an effort to pressure the Chinese government to reign in North Korea:
  

  Trump also identified North Korea as a problem for China, not the U.S.

  “I would get China to make that guy disappear, in one form or another, very quickly,” Trump said in February on the CBS TV program “This Morning.”

  “China has absolute control of North Korea. They won’t say it, but they do. And they should make that problem disappear.” [Korea Times]

• Immigration: Any Koreans living illegally in the US and hoping for amnesty should probably forget about that idea happening anytime soon.  With that said I do think ironically that with a President Trump an immigration reform deal is more likely because he will try and cut a deal that is not blanket amnesty, but at the same time provides a process for foreign workers to be sponsored to work in the US.  This would reduce illegal immigration across the US-Mexico border and possibly allow him to say he does not need to fully build his famous wall.

Conclusion: So those are my quick thoughts on what the election of Donald Trump means for South Korea.  I think the biggest impact is that the ROK should expect to pay more for the upkeep of USFK.  If not then Trump may begin relooking the US-ROK FTA which South Korea has much more to lose.  Does anyone else have any other areas that they foresee that a President Trump will have a significant impact on in South Korea over the next four years?  If so please share your opinions in the comments section.

The NY Post recently reported that Hillary Clinton had been allowing her maid to print out classified emails for her.  What really puzzled me though was this passage where the maid had access to a SCIF:

Santos also had access to a highly secure room called an SCIF (sensitive compartmented information facility) that diplomatic security agents set up at Whitehaven, according to FBI notes from an interview with Abedin.

From within the SCIF, Santos — who had no clearance — “collected documents from the secure facsimile machine for Clinton,” the FBI notes revealed.

Just how sensitive were the papers Santos presumably handled? The FBI noted Clinton periodically received the Presidential Daily Brief — a top-secret document prepared by the CIA and other US intelligence agencies — via the secure fax.  [NY Post]

Unless you are in the military or work with classified information in the government I don’t think most people realize how significant this is.  How did the maid have access to a SCIF?  How did she even get in?  I could only imagine what would happen to a servicemember who brought a random janitor for example into a military SCIF and let them run around and grab documents.

Any tri-lateral cooperation like this good between the US, ROK and Japan:

The United States, Japan and South Korea will practice detecting and stopping ships carrying weapons of mass destruction during a sea exercise this weekend.

The trilateral exercise comes in light of North Korea’s continued work on its nuclear weapons and missile program, South Korean defense officials told reporters in Seoul on Thursday.

The maritime interdiction operation will be held Saturday and Sunday in international waters south of South Korea’s Jeju Island, Yonhap News reported.

The sea services also will conduct search and rescue exercises aimed at rescuing personnel on disabled ships, the report said.  [Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link.

President Duterte is now saying that he will maintain the alliance the Philippines has with the US, but will not allow any more military exercises:

 Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said on Wednesday his country would maintain its existing defense treaties and its military alliances, adding to uncertainty and confusion over the status of security ties with the United States.

It an apparent break from a weeks-long torrent of anti-American rhetoric, Duterte suggested defense alliances would continue and his foreign policy was to “realign”, but reiterated joint exercises with U.S. troops, a decades-old tradition, would be stopped.

Part of the re-alignment has been overtures toward China and Russia, which Duterte has spoken highly of and plans to visit in the weeks ahead, starting with China from Oct. 18-21.

“We need not really break or abrogate our existing treaties because they say that it could provide us with the umbrella,” Duterte said in a speech to the coastguard personnel in Manila.

“We will maintain all military alliances because they say we need it for our defense.”

It was not immediately clear who Duterte was attributing the comments to when he mentioned “they” in his justification for maintaining ties.  [Reuters]

You can read more at the link, but could you imagine if Trump was to become President what the back and forth between these two would look like?

North Korea just added the U.S. to its list of state sponsors of terrorism. Discuss. https://t.co/fDFCQO9et8 https://t.co/Uk5Z6lYUCW

— Joshua Stanton (@freekorea_us) October 10, 2016

Here is something interesting, the U.K. is going to take part in a joint military drill with the US and the ROK in November:

To counter the rising threats from North Korea’s intensified nuclear and missile tests, South Korea and its allies – the US and the UK – are gearing up for a joint military drill in November.

Earlier in the week, South Korea and the US conducted a joint naval drill in the Sea of Japan in the Korean peninsula, which was said to be a show of force by the two countries against North Korea. The countries are also discussing imposing tougher sanctions against Kim Jong-un’s regime to stop him from pursuing the banned nuclear programme.

The South Korean Air Force said in a statement that the maiden joint military drill will be conducted between 4 and 10 November at Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek, 70 km south of the South Korean capital Seoul. The drill, dubbed the “Invincible Shield” will involve a combined aerial exercise, the first of its kind, the statement added.

The UK is planning to send four Eurofighter Typhoon combat jets, Voyager tanker aircraft and C-17 Globemaster transport aircraft to take part in the exercise. F-15K and KF-16 fighters from South Korea will also participate in the drill with the US’s F-16 fighters, the statement added.  [International Business Times]

You can read more at the link.

It sounds like Duterte may be trying to bring his country more closely into the orbits of Russia and China in a bid to keep control over their contested South China Sea islands:

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said Tuesday he won’t allow government forces to conduct joint patrols of disputed waters near the South China Sea with foreign powers, apparently scrapping a deal his predecessor reached with the U.S. military earlier this year.

Duterte also said he was considering acquiring defense equipment from Russia and China. The Philippines has traditionally leaned on the U.S., its longtime treaty ally, and other Western allies for its security needs.

The remarks were the latest from a Philippine president who has had an uneasy relationship with the U.S. but also has tried to mend relations with China strained over South China Sea disputes.

Duterte said he wanted only Philippine territorial waters, up to 12 nautical miles offshore, to be patrolled by Filipino forces, but not other offshore areas that are contested. He added he opposes Filipino forces accompanying foreign powers like the U.S. and China in joint patrols which could entangle the Philippines in hostilities.  [Associated Press]

You can read much more at the link.

I would be surprised to see this happen:

The Defense Ministry said it was implementing a three-pillared system against North Korean weapons threats. On top of the already known Kill Chain to preemptively destroy North Korea missiles and the Korean Air Missile Defense system for air strikes, the ministry will add the so-called Korean Massive Punishment and Retaliation program, which would authorize joint allied forces to attack the North Korean military command if the country causes nuclear damage. The military plans to back the program with precision missiles and specially trained forces. Korean and U.S. forces are also developing new type of preemptive-strike operations.

Seoul should persuade Washington to redeploy tactical nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula until the North Korean nuclear threat is removed. NATO allows jet fighters of members to mount tactical nuclear weapons. The South Korean president as well as the U.S. president need to have the power to authorize the use of such weapons.   [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link.