This does not surprise me at all because I doubted their launch claims from the beginning:
Photographs showing a North Korean missile launched from a submarine were manipulated by state propagandists and the country may be years away from developing such technology, analysts and a top U.S. military official said on Tuesday.
North Korea, sanctioned by the United States and United Nations for its missile and nuclear tests, said on May 9 it had successfully conducted an underwater test-fire of a submarine-launched ballistic missile which, if true, would indicate progress in its pursuit of missile-equipped submarines. (….)
But North Korea is still “many years” from developing submarine-launched ballistic missiles, U.S. Admiral James Winnefeld told an audience at the Centre for Strategic & International Studies in Washington on Tuesday.
“They have not gotten as far as their clever video editors and spinmeisters would have us believe,” said Winnefeld, who is vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Analysis seen by Reuters from German aerospace engineers Markus Schiller and Robert Schmucker of Schmucker Technologie appeared to support Winnefeld’s statement.
The Munich-based pair said photos of the launch were “strongly modified”, including reflections of the missile exhaust flame in the water which did not line up with the missile itself. [Reuters]
I am not surprised by this at all because what appears to be an ejection test does not equal a capable and fielded system:
North Korea did not test fire a ballistic missile from a submarine as Pyongyang claimed over the weekend and the country is still a long way from achieving such a capability, US officials said Monday.
The North’s state media said on Saturday that a new submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) had been tested but US officials rejected the regime’s account.
“That was not a ballistic missile,” a defense official told AFP.
The official played down the test, saying it did not represent a technical breakthrough for the North.
“They are trying to develop that capability,” but there was no “imminent” threat of a submarine-launched missile arsenal coming on line in North Korea, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Pyongyang’s state media said North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un touted the test as an “eye-opening success” that gives his military a “world-level strategic weapon.”
The precise nature of the launch remained unclear. Some analysts suggested the missile might have travelled only a few hundred meters, and that the event did not qualify as a full flight test. [AFP]
You can read more at the link, but I agree with the South Korean estimate that they will not be able to reliably fire a ballistic missile from a submarine for about five more years. Even then I think the accuracy and range will not be all that great but enough to target South Korea and Japan.
That is what this Voice of America article brings up:
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un (L) stands on the conning tower of a submarine during his inspection of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) Naval Unit 167 in this undated photo released by North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang.
South Korean officials Monday outlined their worries about North Korea’s first test missile launch from a submarine. Although the test does not immediately change the military status quo on the Korean peninsula, it shows Pyongyang is working on a difficult-to-detect missile system that could become capable of threatening countries around the world.
South Korean Defense Ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok confirmed that North Korea did test-fire an underwater ballistic missile on May 8. He called the test a serious and great concern and urged Pyongyang to immediately stop further development of this weapon. But the defense ministry spokesman also said the test indicates North Korea is years away from deploying this enhanced capability.
He said the ministry’s view is that North Korea’s test-fire this time shows it is in the early stage of development of a submarine launched ballistic missile program. According to the cases of advanced countries, he said, it takes about four to five years after the underwater test to complete the development of the system.
Still, the fact that Pyongyang is on a trajectory to develop a submarine based missile system means it could develop the capability to strike anywhere in the world, including the mainland of the United States.
This new capability would make less effective South Korea’s current Kill Chain missile system, intended to target and destroy North Korean missile launch sites.
The increased North Korean threat could trigger a new arms race on the Korean peninsula. It could also be used to justify the deployment of the United States anti-ballistic missile system called THAAD. Seoul had been reluctant to accept THAAD in part because China opposes its deployment. [Voice of America]
You can read more at the link, but since the development of an actual working missile launched from a submarine is years away I don’t think this gives the ROK the cover it needs to allow the US to deploy THAAD to Korea against China’s wishes.
This image released by North Korea’s Rodong Shinmun shows what Pyeongyang claims to be a ballistic missile being launched from a submarine in waters near the northeast coast of Sinpo on May 9, 2015. The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), the North’s state media, said the communist state successfully test-fired the submarine missile. (Yonhap)
The new submarine that the ROK is commissioning actually has some really good capabilities and range:
South Korea unveiled a new 1,800-ton attack submarine on Thursday amid its stepped-up efforts to cope with evolving maritime security challenges such as from North Korea.
The 214-class submarine, the country’s sixth, was built by Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering Co. and for the first time named after a woman ― Yu Gwan-sun, a venerated independent fighter during Japanese colonial rule.
Defense Minister Han Min-koo, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Chung Ho-seop, other top military and industry officials and Yu’s families attended the launching ceremony held on Geojedo Island, South Gyeongsang Province.
“The submarine is equipped with antiship, antisubmarine and offensive mining operations capabilities and will be loaded with Korean cruise missiles capable of precision strikes against key facilities of the enemy,” the Navy said in a statement.
To be commissioned in November 2016, the diesel-powered sub has a maximum underwater speed of 20 knots (37 kilometers per hour), which makes it possible to travel between South Korea and Hawaii without refueling.
It will be operated by Air Independent Propulsion, which bolsters the vessel’s submerged endurance and allows the crew to carry out underwater missions for up to two weeks without access to atmospheric oxygen.
The Navy currently has 13 submarines: nine 1,200-ton, 209-class submarines and four 1,800-ton, 214-class submarines. By 2019, its fleet is slated to be expanded to 18 submarines with the addition of five 214-class submarines. [Korea Herald]
I always wonder if these tests are just highly choreographed deception operations to make us think the North Koreans have more capability then they really do?
North Korea appears to have conducted a test of a missile ejection launcher that helps fire missiles from submarines, South Korean military sources said Friday.
The communist North “tested the ejection launcher from the seashore near the Sinpo South Shipyard on Jan. 23 for missiles that can be fired from submarines,” one military source here said, requesting anonymity.
The ejection test last month from the North’s northeast coast simulated the initial stage of boosting a missile out of a submarine launch tube, the source said.
According to South Korean and U.S. intelligence officials, the North has been developing a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) in a move to boost its underwater missile strike capabilities after launching a new 2,500-ton submarine last year.
The North’s move appears to be part of its efforts to equip its missiles with miniaturized nuclear bombs, raising further concerns over the North’s evolving missile and nuclear threats, say North Korean watchers. [Korea Times]
Just another example of the growing military capabilities of the ROK Navy:
The South Korean Navy on Sunday inaugurated a submarine command as part of efforts to bolster its underwater capabilities and combat readiness against North Korea.
The fleet of the command, based in the southern port city of Jinhae and led by a rear admiral, is composed of 13 submarines under the Ninth Submarine Flotilla, the Navy said in a statement.
The Navy operates nine 1,200-ton submarines and four 1,800-ton subs, while planning to add five more 1,800-ton submarines to be built by 2019. In addition, it plans to deploy nine 3,000-ton submarines capable of launching ballistic missiles, starting in 2020.
The launch made South Korea, which commissioned its first submarine from Germany in 1992, the sixth nation in the world with a submarine command after the United States, Japan, France, Britain and India. [Yonhap]
I read reports like this and it just makes me wonder if this a North Korean operation to convince our intelligence operatives that they have more advanced capability then they really have. Firing missiles from a submarine is highly complex technology that I would be surprised to see the North Koreans being able to do unless someone helps them do it:
North Korea appears to be trying to equip a submarine to make it capable of firing missiles, a U.S think tank said Thursday, warning such hard-to-detect, missile-capable submarines would pose significant threats to South Korea.
The website 38 North, run by the U.S.-Korea Institute at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, said it reached the assessment based on commercial satellite imagery taken of the Sinpo South Shipyard on the east coast between July and December.
Imagery from Dec. 18 shows a rectangular opening, about 4.25 meters long and 2.25 meters wide, on top of the conning tower of a submarine, and the opening is believed to be designed to house one to two small vertical missile launch tubes, the website said, citing analysis by Joseph Bermudez, an expert on satellite imagery.
The imagery also showed workers moving around the area, equipment stored on the deck and a heavy-lift construction crane, the website said, adding that the only reasonable explanation for the crane’s presence is “continuing to work on fitting out the submarine.” [Korea Times]
South Korea’s military confirmed Sunday it has detected signs of North Korea’s development of a submarine-based ballistic missile launch system.
In a report to an opposition lawmaker, the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said there is an indication that the North is developing a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM).
“There is no intelligence yet that North Korea has an SLBM in operation. But the possibility of a North Korean submarine equipped with an SLBM has been detected recently,” the JCS said in the document submitted to Rep. Jin Sung-joon of the main opposition New Politics Alliance for Democracy. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but developing a submarine based missile launch capability is very difficult and why so few nations have this capability. It just makes me wonder if the North Koreans are just putting out fake mock ups in order to confuse intelligence analysts. They have been accused of doing this in the past.
