Tag: South Korea

If you believe the Korean presidential polling, Lee Jae-myung is still the front runner by 9 percentage points. For Kim Moon-soo to win this he needs to some how get Lee Jun-seok to back him with his 10% of voters:

 A three-way presidential race tightened as Democratic Party (DP) candidate Lee Jae-myung lost some of his lead in the latest opinion polls, while People Power Party (PPP) candidate Kim Moon-soo gained ground.

With the election just eight days away, opinion polls have still put Lee in front, but the gap between Lee and Kim had narrowed, while Lee Jun-seok of the minor New Reform Party (NRP) garnered his double-digit support.

A Realmeter survey released Saturday showed support for the DP’s Lee at 46.6 percent, followed by Kim with 37.6 percent and the NRP’s Lee with 10.4 percent. The margin of error was 3.1 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.

According to a Realmeter survey released on May 11, a day before the official campaign began, the DP’s Lee garnered 52.1 percent support against Kim’s 31.1 percent in the hypothetical three-way race that also included the NRP’s Lee, who earned 6.3 percent.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

None of these ideas being proposed will do anything significant to raise the birthrate because they all simply involve throwing money at the problem:

Democratic Party presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung pose for a photograph with children during his campaign in South Gyeongsang on May 14. [KIM SEONG-RYONG]

The rival candidates, Kim and Lee, are seemingly on different paths regarding how to help couples conceive babies, strengthen child care and housing support and provide tax benefits for families with children. 
  
While Lee only stated his promise to strengthen medical services for couples struggling with infertility, Kim suggested more detailed plans: the state health insurance covering costs of freezing sperm and ova and state funding for fertility testing. 
  
Lee stressed “public” support in parenting services to establish a “society where everyone partakes in child care.” 
  
Instead of the current scheme where elementary schools autonomously decide the service period and curriculum, Lee plans to reinforce the central and local governments’ direct responsibility for after-school child care services. 
  
Kim kept his child care-related pledges brief. He promised to expand 24-hour and emergency care facilities and provide one-on-one care for babies and infants. When it comes to housing, Lee presented “public housing for newlyweds” as his key initiative. 
  
Public housing, provided by state authorities, offers leases for 30 to 50 years for low-income families. Currently, a two-person household can apply for public housing if their combined monthly earnings are 5.89 million won or below. 
  
However, as of Tuesday, Lee has not specified how many units will be supplied, nor potential locations. 
  
Kim also promised to supply 100,000 housing units annually, which makes the residents receive state subsidies for their housing expenses. Newlyweds would qualify for three years of support. An addition of a single child will extend the benefit for three more years.

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link.

To raise the birthrate Korea needs couples to marry earlier. Right now Korean women on average get married at 31.6 years of age. By the time women reach 40 they probably do not want to have children so this leaves effectively about 8 years to have kids. Then you throw in that many women now work and manage careers plus the high costs of raising kids that is why there is a low birthrate.

Besides reducing costs there needs to be a cultural change in South Korea for couples to marry earlier which would conflict with women pursuing careers early in life before marriage and having kids. As long as this remains the cultural norm Korea will continue to have a low birthrate.

Nothing surprising appears to have come out of the first Korean Presidential debate; Lee Jae-myung thinks orange man is bad and Korea shouldn’t be in a hurry to make a trade deal while Kim Moon-soo says holding an immediate summit with Trump would be a top priority:

The specter of trade negotiations with the United States under President Donald Trump loomed large Sunday night as Korea’s presidential hopefuls offered sharply divergent strategies during their inaugural televised debate.

Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) candidate, advocated for a measured, interest-driven path in dealing with Washington, while Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party championed a rapid, trust-based summit approach.

Lee said there was “no need to rush” into an agreement. 

“The foremost principle in trade negotiations is to prioritize the national interest,” he said. “We shouldn’t feel compelled to concede just because the United States makes demands.”

He stressed the value of strategic patience, pointing to Japan and China as examples of countries that have successfully employed this approach.

“Japan, which initially demanded early negotiations, has taken a step back. China also set strong conditions before ultimately adjusting its position. We need to navigate this wisely, too,” he said. 

Lee added that Korea should seize the moment to pivot away from export dependency and steadily increase domestic demand.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

The differences in North Korea policies is really not surprising. Lee Jae-myung just wants to continue the liberal policy of paying off Kim Jong-un for little to nothing in return and Kim Moon-soo is calling to increase military readiness against North Korea:

South Korea’s two leading presidential candidates are presenting sharply contrasting approaches to North Korea — one emphasizes diplomacy and dialogue, while the other advocates for a more robust deterrence strategy, including the possible redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea. These weapons were withdrawn in late 1991 under U.S. President George H. W. Bush’s nuclear reduction initiatives.

While North Korea policy has not traditionally played a decisive role in presidential elections, lingering uncertainty over how U.S. President Donald Trump might engage with Pyongyang has raised the stakes for the next South Korean government’s security strategy.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but really the only thing new is Kim Moon-soo advocating for the return of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to North Korea. I would be surprised to see that happen. Another thing he is advocating for is to amend an agreement with the U.S. to allow the ROK to reprocess plutonium and enrich uranium to speed up nuclear weapons development if they needed. I think the ROK might have more success with this idea.

Ultimately it will be up to the Korean voters to decide if they want to use their tax dollars to support a robust defense focused foreign policy towards North Korea or send their tax dollars to pay off Kim Jong-un for little to nothing in return.

The article doesn’t say, but how did these two guys secretly enter Osan Airbase?:

South Korean police arrested two Taiwanese men over the weekend for allegedly entering Osan Air Base without authorization during a U.S.-South Korean military open house and filming the event, according to local media.

The pair, identified as being in their 40s and 60s, were taken into custody Sunday after attending the Air Power Days event on Saturday, Yonhap News reported Monday, citing the Gyeonggi Nambu Provincial Police Agency.

The air base, about 30 miles south of Seoul, is home to the U.S. 7th Air Force and the South Korean air force’s operations command. Security procedures for the event required all visitors to bring a form of government identification and check in at the base’s front gate. South Korean visitors were required to have a driver’s license or student ID; foreigners unaffiliated with the U.S. military needed to have a passport.

Stars & Stripes

You can read more at the link, but Chinese and Taiwanese nationals were forbidden from entering the airbase and some how these two still got in.

Here is an apology letter that is making the rounds on the Korean Internet as an example of good parenting:

A handwritten apology by a child and a formal statement from the parents were posted in their apartment complex after the child failed to clean up after the family’s dog. The gesture has drawn widespread praise online for the parents’ responsible approach to parenting.

A post titled “Apology letter spotted at an apartment complex” began spreading rapidly on online forums such as FM Korea on Monday. The post included photos of a neatly written apology from the parents, identified only as A, along with a handwritten note by their youngest child.

In the letter, A details the incident and expresses regret: “On the evening of May 8, our youngest child took our dog for a walk. On the way back, the dog defecated in front of the elevator on the first floor, and the child failed to clean it up. We were informed of the situation through the apartment management office.”

The parent continued, “We sincerely apologize to all residents who use the elevator and were made uncomfortable by this incident. As parents, we take full responsibility for not properly teaching our child the basic etiquette of communal living.”

The letter also noted that the child was instructed to always carry waste bags during walks and was told to write a personal apology to reflect on the incident.

Beneath the parent’s statement was a handwritten note believed to be from the child, which read, in misspelled but sincere language: “I did not clean up my dog’s poop in front of the elevator. I’m really sorry. My parents scolded me a lot, and I truly regret it. From now on, I will clean it up right away.”

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

President Trump’s tariffs are definitely contributing to this, but exports across the board are down for South Korea, not just to the U.S.:

South Korea’s exports plunged nearly 24 percent in the first 10 days of May, signaling that the US Trump administration’s tariffs are beginning to take a toll on the trade-dependent economy.

Outbound shipments totaled $12.8 billion during the May 1-10 period, down 23.8 percent from a year earlier, according to preliminary data from the Korea Customs Service released Monday.

Factoring in fewer workdays — five days during the period this year compared to 6.5 days in 2024 — average daily exports fell by just 1 percent, the agency added.

Shipments to China and the US — Korea’s two largest export markets — fell 20.1 percent and 30.4 percent, respectively. Exports to Vietnam declined 14.5 percent, while those to the European Union plunged 38.1 percent. Among the top five destinations, only Taiwan posted growth, with its shipments jumping 14.2 percent.

Korea Herald

You can read more at the link.

The conservatives have finally settled on a candidate. I guess we will see if it is too little, too late to overcome the huge lead Lee Jae-myung has:

Former Prime Minister Han Duck-soo said Sunday he “humbly accepts” his party’s decision to vote down his presidential candidacy, pledging to assist the party’s final candidate Kim Moon-soo’s presidential campaign. 

Lee Jung-hyun, a spokesperson for Han, made the remarks during a press briefing held a day after the People Power Party’s (PPP) plenary meeting voted down a motion led by the party’s leadership to replace the party’s presidential candidate, Kim, with Han. 

Kim, a former labor minister, had secured the party’s nomination through the primaries, while Han had outperformed him in public polls against Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.