Presidential hopefuls of the conservative Bareun Party — Yoo Seong-min (L), a lawmaker of the party, and Gyeonggi Gov. Nam Kyung-pil — pose for a photo prior to a TV debate in Seoul on March 25, 2017. South Korea is preparing for the May 9 presidential election after the ouster of President Park Geun-hye on March 10. (Pool photo) (Yonhap)
Here is the latest theory on the so called real reason the Chinese are upset with the THAAD deployment to South Korea:
The second hypothesis is, I think, more convincing, and one where Beijing may have legitimate concern about the Gyeongsangbuk-do AN/TPY-2 radar upsetting U.S.-China strategic nuclear stability. Specifically, China may — correctly or incorrectly — fear that its nuclear second-strike capability is significantly degraded as a result of a third U.S. AN/TPY-2 radar going up specifically near the southern tip of the Korean peninsula.
To avoid the need for a massive nuclear build-up and to feel comfortable with its several hundred or so nuclear warheads for targeting, China needs to feel comfortable enough its intercontinental ballistic missiles can reliably penetrate U.S. antiballistic missile countermeasures. [The Diplomat]
It does not matter what radar is in Korea because the Ground-based Missile Defense (GMD) system fielded by the United States is not designed to shoot down complex ICBMs like the Chinese and Russians both have. It is designed to intercept non-complex ICBMs from rogue nations like North Korea and Iran.
Here is the part of the article where somebody let out the “good idea fairy”:
Li’s proposed solution for the United States was simple enough: the United States could “deploy its Green Pine radar or another radar with similar capabilities to guide the THAAD interceptors.” Li add that the “THAAD TPY-2 radar does not provide more capability to protect the ROK from the North Korean missile threat relative to a Green Pine-level radar since the TPY-2 radar’s detection range goes too far beyond North Korean territory.” It’s unclear also if a Green Pine radar would synergize with the existing AN/TPY-2s in Japan.
First of all Green Pine is not a US radar, it is an Israeli radar that was sold to the ROK. The ROK has two of these radars deployed on the peninsula. THAAD is not designed or tested to use anything but the AN/TPY-2 radar. If you want to know why the THAAD system uses the AN/TPY-2 radar doing a search on Youtube is a good place to begin. The Green Pine radar is designed to work with the Israeli Arrow system. These are two completely different systems with their own complex hardware and software that cannot be mix and matched.
The reason why China is opposed to THAAD is the simplest answer which is they are attempting to create a wedge in the US-ROK alliance. The Chinese feel that that the US is trying to recreate the old USSR containment strategy against them and thus are taking actions to counter this. They have made inroads within the Philippines at countering US influence there are are now focusing on the ROK. With a left wing politician expected to be elected in a couple of months in the ROK we will see if this strategy works for the Chinese.
I don’t think we will see much fake news before the election because the Korean left does not have any serious challengers to the Presidency since they took out Ban Ki-moon with arguably fake news already:
Acting President and Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn speaks during a meeting of related ministers on preparation for the May 9 presidential election at the central government complex in Seoul on March 27, 2017. (Yonhap)
Acting President and Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn on Monday called for a stern crackdown on fake news and other election crimes with the presidential election 43 days away.
During a meeting of related ministers on preparation for the May 9 election day, Hwang also instructed the government to employ a “zero-tolerance” principle against any civil servants violating their obligation to remain politically neutral.
“We have to come up with extraordinary measures including a special task force to tackle fake news and malicious propaganda which are election crimes that could inflict great damages (on victims),” Hwang said. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but could you imagine if there was a fake news crackdown in the US? It has gotten so bad now that the US President responds to fake news with his own fake news so the media stops talking about the other fake news.
The sunken ferry Sewol ferry is loaded on a semisubmersible transport vessel in waters near Jindo, 472 kilometers southwest of Seoul, on March 26, 2017. The passenger ferry sank on April 16, 2014, killing more than 300 people, mostly high school students on a school trip, in the nation’s worst maritime disaster. Nine bodies are still missing. (Yonhap)
The viewpoint in this article is something that I have been saying for months that the Chinese are using the THAAD deployment to drive a wedge in the US-ROK alliance. They have had success in the Philippines with this strategy and have been trying to replicate it in South Korea. We will see if the strategy works when a ROK left wing politician likely gets elected May to the Presidency:
Chinese opposition to South Korea’s deployment of the THAAD missile defense system is less about missiles than about an ongoing effort to weaken—and ideally demolish—the United States’ network of formal and informal alliances in Asia that has underpinned the regional order for the last seventy years.
The THAAD controversy that heated up in 2016 once deployment became likely displays a familiar Chinese modus operandi: First, pick a fight over an allegedly offensive act. Next, follow up with vitriol and veiled threats, and then inflict economic pressure—while making bland denials or declaring it the spontaneous reaction of the righteously offended Chinese people. [The National Interest]
Kim Soon-kwon, a chair professor at Handong Global University and also known as “Dr. Corn” for his expertise in growing maize, holds a press conference in the southeastern city of Ulsan on March 23, 2017, to make a declaration to run in the May 9 presidential election. (Yonhap)
ROK-US relations could be interesting in the coming years considering how many of the liberal Presidential candidates have plans to appease China and North Korea:
However, only a minor opposition Justice Party has proposed a resolution against China’s increasing pressure on South Korea. In the past, the opposition lawmakers, which had showed a pro-China attitude under former President Roh Moo-hyun, contributed to worsening the relations between South Korea and the U.S. They are now calling for reversing the decision on the deployment of missile defense system, while not making any complaints about China’s irrational retaliatory actions against South Korean companies. Will they show the same attitude if the U.S. comes up with similar retaliatory behaviors?
China stood on North Korea’s side over the sinking of the Cheonan on March 26, 2010. Furthermore, the U.S. had to eliminate its plan on military drills against North Korea with its aircraft carrier in the West Sea after meeting with strong opposition from China. The second West Sea Defense Day Ceremony was held at the Daejeon National Cemetery on Thursday in order to honor and remember soldiers killed from the sinking of the Cheonan, the second battle of Yeonpyeong and the bombing of Yeonpyeong Island. However, opposition party members, including leading presidential candidates, Choo Mi-ae, head of the main opposition Democratic Party, and Park Jie-won, head of the People’s Party, did not show up at the event. It seems that opposition party members are putting a presidential election over national security, making the public feel anxious about South Korea’s national security if they win the election in May. [Donga Ilbo]
I feel horrible for the families that have to live through this tragedy all over again as the resources have finally been mustered to lift the sunken Sewol ferry boat:
Salvage operators will load the Sewol ferry onto a semisubmersible ship late into Friday night ― the final task before heading to land.
“We are racing against time,” said Lee Cheol-jo, an official from the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, who is in charge of the operation. “With strong tidal currents expected in the area Saturday, the workers have to do everything correctly to finish the job hopefully before midnight.”
He said loading the ferry onto a semisubmersible ship is the trickiest stage of the operation, which requires optimal weather conditions.
The workers plan to finish the job before March 24, the last day of the neap tide period around the area. The next neap is not until April 5.
Lee said the rest of the operation will not be as vulnerable to weather conditions.
The semisubmersible ship will take the 6,825-ton ferry to Mokpo Port next week.
The sunken ferry was lifted from the depths, Thursday, nearly three years after it sank and left 304 people dead on April 16, 2014, in Korea’s worst maritime disaster. [Korea Times]
A protester expresses her objection to a 2015 Seoul-Tokyo landmark deal to settle the issue of elderly Korean women who were sex slaves for Japanese troops during World War II, as she takes part in a rally in front of the Japanese Embassy in Seoul on March 22, 2017, to support the former “comfort women.” (Yonhap)
