Tag: South Korea

Long time Korea analyst Victor Cha is making some bold predictions:

But there is bigger storm brewing behind these dark clouds that is threatening to the core of the U.S.-South Korea alliance. It has three components. The first is a nuclear deal with North Korea that is almost certain before Christmas now that John Bolton, the most influential voice in the Hanoi summit’s collapse, is out of the White House. This deal will probably not be a good one, in that its scope will be limited mostly to the Yongbyon nuclear facility; it will not be verifiable; and the U.S. will give too much in lifting sanctions. 

But both presidents Moon Jae-in and Donald Trump, who have both staked so much of their credibility on a deal with Kim, will not just accept a suboptimal deal, but will declare with it an end to hostilities on the Korean Peninsula in the form of a peace declaration. (……)

The perfect storm in the winter of 2019-2020, therefore, is a peace deal with North Korea and a failed cost-sharing negotiation that causes Trump to act on his beliefs. Specifically, his anger over Seoul’s refusal to pay no more than a fraction of the demand, coupled with an end-of-war declaration, will cause Trump to act on his 30-year long instinct to draw down or fully withdraw forces from South Korea. As ludicrous as this scenario may sound to experts, Trump would boast that the deal with North Korea is the “best deal ever” with his good friend Kim Jong-un; that he has ended the Korean War; and that he can now “bring the boys home” because there is peace in South Korea and the “ungrateful” South Koreans do not want to pay for U.S. troops. Moreover, he will tell his political base during the campaign that this move is saving money wasted on foreigners and therefore he is putting “America first.”

Chosun Ilbo

You can read more at the link.

President Moon has to get someone appointed as the Justice Minister to slow down all the corruption investigations into the Blue House:

Choo Mi-ae, a five-term ruling party lawmaker, has been nominated for the position of justice minister, Cheong Wa Dae announced Thursday amid keen attention to her role in the South Korean government’s push for prosecution reform.

President Moon Jae-in picked Choo to fill the post that has been vacant for several weeks since Cho Kuk stepped down in the face of state prosecutors’ probe into alleged irregularities involving his family. (……..)

For Moon, the choice of Choo is viewed as a card to counter the prosecution’s thinly veiled pressure on Cheong Wa Dae with intensive probes into high-profile corruption suspicions, involving longtime confidants to the president, under the leadership of Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but this is what the Joong Ang Ilbo is speculating she will do once in charge of the Justice Ministry:

Speculation is running high that Choo will shake up the prosecution as soon as she becomes minister. As of now, the prosecution is carrying out at least three investigations that involve allies of President Moon. Probes are ongoing into an allegation that the Moon Blue House carried out a political operation to influence the 2018 local election; the suspicious suspension of a Blue House probe into Moon’s associate Yoo Jae-soo; and the continuing investigation of corruption allegations involving Cho Kuk and his family. 

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link, but she is essentially expected to help cover up the corruption allegations surrounding the Blue House.

Here is an interesting read about South Korea’s “Dirt Spoons” that are baring the effects of the poor economy in South Korea:

The sparse rooms, in premises called goshi-won, were previously mostly used by less well-off students to temporarily cut off from the outside world while they studied for civil service job tests.

Now they are increasingly becoming permanent homes to young people like Hwang, who identifies himself among the “dirt spoons”, those born to low-income families who have all but given up on social mobility.

“If I try hard enough and get a good job, will I ever be able to afford a house?” the 25-year-old said in his small, cluttered room where clothes were piled on the bed. “Will I ever be able to narrow the gap that’s already so big?”

The concept of dirt spoons and gold spoons, as those from better-off families are known, have been around for many years but exploded onto the political scene in recent years, undercutting support for liberal President Moon Jae-in.

Moon came to power in 2017 on a platform of social and economic justice, yet halfway through his five-year term, he has little progress to show the country’s youth who have borne the brunt of deepening inequality.

Reuters

You can read more at the link.

There is a new book out and of course to create traction in the media with it the author has to claim that President Trump is an idiot:

During that conversation, Wead wrote, Trump reiterated his belief that Obama would have gone to war with the North had he stayed in office.

“And I also think that thirty to one hundred million people could have been killed,” Wead quoted the president as saying.

South Korea has 51.2 million people and North Korea has a population of 25 million.

Trump then expressed disbelief at experts’ predictions that 100,000-200,000 people would die, a number he said was the equivalent of the population of a South Korean village.

“Well, as you know, Seoul, the capital city, is right by the so-called border,” he continued, according to Wead. “And that is a tough border by the way. An impenetrable border. And Seoul has a population of thirty million people. Kim has ten thousand guns, artillery, they call them cannons. He doesn’t even need a nuclear weapon to create one of the greatest calamities in history.”

The population of Seoul is just under 10 million.

Yonhap

When I read Trump’s comments I clearly understood that when he was talking about Seoul he was referencing the Seoul metropolitan area. The Seoul city center has 10 million, but the metro area has 25 million. Also when he is talking about upwards of 100 million casualties how do we know he wasn’t including if a nuclear weapon was dropped on Tokyo or other major cities? It is context like this that is important, but to get media attention he must be described as an idiot, so mission accomplished by this author.

The only real idiots are whoever told him a war on the Korean peninsula would only lead to 100,000 to 200,000 deaths. If they did not use nukes I could maybe understand that number, but I find it hard to believe that if North Korea went all in and used nuclear weapons, that only that many people would die.

A quote I did find interesting that may explain why President Trump is pushing so hard on the Moon administration on USFK cost sharing is the status of the THAAD battery in South Korea:

“Do you know how much we spend defending South Korea? Four and half billion dollars a year. Figure that one out?” he added.

Trump has reportedly demanded that South Korea raise its contribution to shared defense costs to US$5 billion next year, a five-fold increase from this year.

Trump also complained to Wead that the people who treated the U.S. the worst were its allies.

“And you’ve heard the story with South Korea with the missiles system, with the THAAD anti-missile system?” he was quoted as saying.

I read that to mean that he is not happy about how the Moon administration is allowing the blockade of the road to the THAAD battery to occur. ROK Heads may remember that the road is still blocked and all supplies and personnel to the battery have to be flown in by helicopter. The battery though there to protect South Koreans is frequently used by Moon’s leftist allies to promote wild conspiracy theories and anti-Americanism.

Trump we have seen has a long memory when it comes to things he does not like and maybe the THAAD issue is something he is still unhappy about and influencing the cost sharing talks?

That is what this Bloomberg article is calling for:

Back in Seoul, officials appear more focused on addressing a cyclical slowdown than the broader shift in economic and social life. The Bank of Korea is on its way to zero interest rates and fiscal taps are being opened to buttress slowing activity. Yet only policies that create more people have a prayer.

That’s why immigration has to be part of the solution. Foreigners make up about 3.7% of South Korea’s population, according to an OECD report in January. While that’s low by global standards, the good news is that this proportion is growing fast. During a recent cross-country trip, I noticed that few of the servers at restaurants were local. Vietnamese, Chinese and South Asians took orders and whisked food to tables. “Without foreigners, work won’t get done,” Lee, the shop owner, explained. “Korean young people won’t do it; the few that are left here don’t want to do physical work.”

Many immigrants work in manufacturing, construction and retail, filling gaps left by aging locals. The risk is that foreigners get hemmed into low-paying jobs. Korea has attracted a lot of students from abroad in the past decade, but only 15% of graduates remain. More needs to be done to retain this talent.

Bloomberg

You can read more at the link.

Now the Moon administration is bickering with the Japanese on why they caved on the cancellation of the GSOMIA:

South Korea and Japan clashed Sunday over an agreement on keeping alive their military information-sharing pact, casting a pall on upcoming negotiations over the agreement.

The move came two days after South Korea conditionally suspended the expiry of the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA), six hours before it was due to lapse.

South Korea also decided to temporarily halt a petition process at the World Trade Organization while negotiations with Japan on the two sides’ export control policies go on.

“In the future negotiations, everything depends on Japan’s attitude,” Chung Eui-yong, director of Cheong Wa Dae’s national security office, told reporters at an exhibition center in the southeastern port city of Busan, noting South Korea’s recent decisions are conditional and provisional.

A key condition of the suspension is that South Korea can terminate the military pact at any time it wants and Japan has expressed “understanding” over it, according to South Korea. (………)

“We have no choice but to express deep regret” over the Japanese behavior, Chung said, calling the Japanese moves a “breach of faith.”

Chung also slammed Japanese leaders for their reported remarks that South Korea caved in to U.S. pressure and that Japan had achieved a diplomatic victory, describing them as untrue.

A senior presidential official also said it would be very disappointing if Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s reported comments are true. Japanese media reported that Abe said Japan had made no concessions.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

Considering all the U.S. pressure that the Moon administration has been facing from the U.S. this must be the face saving way they are attempting to maintain the GSOMIA without looking like they backed down:

 South Korea announced a decision Friday to “conditionally” suspend the expiry of a military information-sharing accord with Japan.

South Korea has also decided to temporarily halt a petition process at the World Trade Organization while negotiations with Japan on the two sides’ export control policies go on, Kim You-geun, deputy director of Cheong Wa Dae’s national security office, said at a press briefing.

He added the two sides have agreed to resume working-level talks to discuss the export controls.

It paves the way for the two sides to focus on substantive dialogue, at least for the time being, on pending bilateral issues such as compensation for wartime forced labor and the trade dispute. Depending on progress, President Moon Jae-in may hold one-on-one summit talks with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe next month.

Seoul’s announcement was made six hours before the expiry of the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA), scheduled at the end of the day. 

A key condition is that South Korea can terminate GSOMIA at any time it wants and Japan has expressed “understanding” over it, Kim said.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

Here is a hit piece from the Hankyoreh describing a USINDOPACOM strategy that doesn’t exist:

A South Korean government official said, “The reason so many senior US officials are visiting South Korea and campaigning hard for a GSOMIA extension is because GSOMIA is just that important to the Indo-Pacific strategy.”

Indo-Pacific Strategy gives Japan priority over S. KoreaThe US’ previous strategy for East Asia positioned the US itself at the center with South Korea, Japan, and Australia acting as “spokes.” Fundamentally, South Korea and Japan were on an equal footing. The Indo-Pacific strategy, in contrast, involves a framework where the US, Japan, India, and Australia form a “quad” hemming China in from all sides, while South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam, and others are included as lower-level partners.

Under this framework, the US-Japan alliance becomes upgraded to a global alliance. In pushing through security-related legislation, Japan’s Shinzo Abe administration increased its potential for intervention on the Korean Peninsula by concocting the concepts of “situations of major influence” and “existential threat,” with an eye on direct intervention if war breaks out. Under this system, Japan would need to receive initial military information on North Korean nuclear missile launch activity through GSOMIA to attack preemptively in a scenario of imminent armed attack by the North.

Hankyoreh

You can read more at the link, but if Japan was about to face a nuclear missile attack they don’t need the GSOMIA because the US would inform them. The biggest attribute of the GSOMIA is creating a mechanism where the ROK and Japan can work together.

As far as what the Hankyoreh describes as the USINDOPACOM strategy, I have read their strategy and it mentions nothing of what the Hankyoreh is claiming. You can read the USINDOPACOM strategy at this link.

As I predicted there was no way that the Moon administration was going to reverse course on withdrawing from the GSOMIA. Promoting anti-Japanese sentiment is literally the only issue his party has to run on for the parliamentary elections coming up early next year. Reversing the decision on the GSOMIA would have been a major loss of face for the Moon administration:

U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper told South Korean President Moon Jae-in on Friday he will try to persuade Japan to “smoothly” resolve the dispute over the two neighbors’ military information-sharing arrangement, according to the presidential office.

During a 50-minute meeting with Esper at Cheong Wa Dae, Moon explained his government’s basic position that it’s “difficult to share military information” with Japan, which has imposed export restrictions against South Korea for a stated reason that Seoul is not trustworthy as a security partner, Cheong Wa Dae spokesperson Ko Min-jung said.

In late August, the Moon administration decided not to renew the General Security of Military Agreement (GSOMIA) and it’s slated to expire as of next Saturday.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.