Tag: South China Sea

Japan May Expand Naval Operations Into the South China Sea

| February 9, 2015

It will be interesting to see what the South Korean reaction will be if the Japanese decide to expand their naval operations into the South China Sea:

Japan is interested in the South China Sea disputes gripping Southeast Asia for two main reasons. First, any tension in these waters could disrupt the free flow of traffic through critical sea lines, which are vital for resource-poor Japan’s economy and survival. Second, Japanese officials are closely monitoring how China handles these island disputes to try to discern how China might try to deal with Japan in their ongoing dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea.

The interconnectedness of these two issues is evident in the rife speculation that China might unilaterally declare an Air Defense Identification Zone in the South China Sea after it did so in the East China Sea in November 2013 (speculation which China has consistently denied). Such interconnectedness also leads to concerns that a negative outcome – a resolution of a dispute through the use or threat of the use of force – could set a precedent that affects other disputes. By supporting front-line states in the South China Sea, Japan sees itself as defending its own interests by upholding the norm of peaceful resolution, ironically, through military deterrence.

The U.S. would endorse a move in Japan’s security posture toward greater assertiveness and collaboration with Southeast Asian partners. Admiral Robert Thomas, commander of the Seventh Fleet, said in an interview to Reuters, “I think allies, partners and friends in the region will look to the Japanese more and more as a stabilizing function.”   [The Diplomat]

You can read more at the link, but the Japanese are seriously considering expanding air and naval operations into the South China Sea.  It seems to me this will just increase the chances of an incident between China and Japan happening.  The most likely incident would be the Chinese provoking Japanese patrols with their fishing boat fleet to create an incident.  I hope before the Japanese move forward with this that they really think through how they would respond to Chinese provocations against their forces.

US To Sell Military Equipment to Vietnam

| October 23, 2014

How times have changed:

SCS Image

It’s no secret that the United States has worried about the expansion of Chinese military power. The U.S., distracted by wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, has neglected Asia. The so-called “Asia Pivot” has been an attempt to correct that, broadening old alliances while forming new agreements with countries not traditionally American allies, but which share an interest in containing China.

Vietnam would probably like a full array of modern American weapons, but fiscal and geopolitical realities must temper expectations. American weapons are expensive — a single F-35 fighter bomber costs $100 million, and Vietnam’s entire defense budget is only $7 billion.

The United States will — at least for the foreseeable future — refuse requests to sell deadly weapons like bombs or missiles to Vietnam. If American weapons caused Chinese casualties, no matter who was at fault in the incident, the U.S. would be held responsible.

But Washington is providing Vietnam with non-lethal weapons that can document China’s territorial incursions, so they can be publicized and sent to international arbitration. The United States is in talks with Vietnam to provide refurbished surveillance aircraft. P-3 Orion maritime patrol aircraft were first introduced in the 1950s, and are currently being replaced in U.S. inventories by the newer P-8 Poseidon. The aircraft are equipped with sonar and radar, and are manned by a crew of 11. Although old, the aircraft are dependable aerial surveillance platforms capable of monitoring huge distances.  [The Week]

You can read more at the link, but the US and Vietnam definitely have shared interests now in the South China Sea.  The selling of non-lethal equipment I think is a smart move. If the Chinese continue to be aggressive in the SCS then the selling of lethal equipment to countries in the region can be used as a negotiation tactic to moderate Chinese behavior.

However, if I was the Vietnamese I would invest in a whole lot of anti-ship cruise missiles that are relatively cheap compared to buying expensive naval ships like the Chinese have.  Just the threat that the Chinese Navy would face severe losses from these cruise missiles if conflict was to occur may be enough to moderate Chinese behavior.  If the Vietnamese really want to send a message they could also invest in ballistic missiles that can threaten Chinese cities.