North Korea seems to be sending a message that they are growing impatient waiting for the sanctions to be dropped:
In this undated photo released Friday, Nov. 16, 2018, by the North Korean government, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, center, listens to a military official as he inspects a weapon testing at the Academy of National Defense Science, North Korea. Kim observed the successful test of a newly developed high-tech tactical weapon.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un observed the successful test of an unspecified “newly developed ultramodern tactical weapon,” state media reported Friday, in an apparent bid to apply pressure on the United States and South Korea.
It didn’t appear to be a test of a nuclear device or a long-range missile with the potential to target the U.S. A string of such tests last year had many fearing war before the North turned to engagement and diplomacy. Still, any mention of weapons testing could influence the direction of stalled diplomatic efforts spearheaded by Washington and aimed at ridding the North of its nuclear weapons.
The North hasn’t publicly tested any weapons since November 2017, but in recent days Pyongyang reportedly expressed anger at U.S.-led international sanctions and ongoing small-scale military drills between South Korea and the United States.
Earlier this month, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry warned it could bring back its policy of bolstering its nuclear arsenal if it doesn’t receive sanctions relief.
“It’s North Korea-style coercive diplomacy. North Korea is saying ‘If you don’t listen to us, you will face political burdens,'” said analyst Shin Beomchul of Seoul’s Asan Institute for Policy Studies. [Reuters]
You can read more at the link, but of course the Moon administration in South Korea is playing down this weapons test:
North Korea’s test of an unspecified high-tech weapon should not be interpreted as a sign that the regime is abandoning denuclearization talks with the United States, a senior South Korean official said Thursday.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspected the “successful” test of a “high-tech tactical weapon” at a national defense institute, state media reported early Friday (local time).
It marked the first such inspection by the leader following his viewing of an intercontinental ballistic missile launch in November 2017.
“It’s clearly something that we should watch carefully,” the senior government official who was visiting Washington told reporters on condition of anonymity. “But it’s still early to view this as a change of heart in terms of the North Koreans’ intention to have denuclearization talks or its intention to resolve the issue of regime security and improve ties with the U.S. through talks.” [Yonhap]
The big question remains what was tested? My guess would be is that they tested their multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) called the KN-09.
This photo from the North Korean daily Rodong Sinmun on March 4, 2016, shows a test fire of the country’s new multiple rocket launcher.
They last test fired their MLRS in 2016 and it reportedly has a range out to 200 kilometers. Maybe their new “ultramodern” weapon is an MLRS with greater range? Regardless a 200 kilometer range already threatens Osan Airbase and Camp Humphreys, the two major US military installations in South Korea.
North Korea’s propaganda outlet called for the total suspension of joint military drills between South Korea and the United States on Friday, in response to the allies’ decision to delay them until after the PyeongChang Winter Olympics.
The North’s website Uriminzokkiri said that dialogue and a “war rehearsal” cannot go together, calling the exercises the source of catastrophe for the Korean Peninsula.
“They should totally stop the military drills, not just delay them,” it said in a commentary. [Korea Herald]
You can read more at the link, but this all goes back to North Korea’s strategy of separating the ROK from the US. Ending the ROK-US military drills using nuclear coercion is one of the ways they are trying to do this.
After the completion of the Olympics, if the delayed Key Resolve exercise is not cancelled, the Kim regime can then use it as an excuse to start another provocation cycle. That is why I fully expect there will be another launch in the spring timeframe. What else that won’t be surprising is that all the usual suspects in the western media will be out blaming President Trump for the return of the provocation cycle.
Here is the latest call for President Trump to not visit the DMZ:
Sue Mi Terry
North Korea could feel threatened if U.S. President Donald Trump visits the demilitarized zone on the inter-Korean border next month, a U.S. expert said Friday.
Trump could include a trip to the buffer zone dividing South and North Korea when he visits Seoul from Nov. 7-8, according to news reports. There are concerns it could provoke Pyongyang amid high tensions over its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs.
“They’re seeing almost everything as a threat,” Sue Mi Terry, a former Korea analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency, said during a discussion on North Korea.
She noted that Trump has called North Korean leader Kim Jong-un a “Rocket Man” on a suicide mission and threatened to “totally destroy” the country if necessary.
“They already see him as a very provocative person,” she said. “Anything that he does will be continually seen that way.”
Terry voiced strong opposition to the use of military action against North Korea, saying it could have “catastrophic consequences” for the 20 million people living in Seoul.
“I think North Korea will retaliate if there’s a military strike,” she said. “In this ‘track 2’ meeting I had with North Koreans, they emphasized that they didn’t go through this level of pain that they had gone through to acquire nuclear weapons — spending millions of dollars — just to be able to, to paraphrase their own words: ‘We’re not just going to perish without being able to use them if we think the attack for regime change is coming.'” [Yonhap]
Ms. Terry is a smart person, but I don’t understand her perspective on this. If President Trump is going to say something provocative during his trip that is going to upset the Kim regime it doesn’t matter if it happens at Panmunjom or during his planned speech to the National Assembly.
As far as her view of being against military action I disagree with. First of all, I have not heard Trump calling for regime change. President Trump’s comments about totaling destroying North Korea were made in the context of the US or its allies having to defend itself from a North Korean attack.
Secondly there is this drum beat that any military action against North Korea will lead to the destruction of Seoul which I believe is not accurate. In my opinion if the US conducted a limited strike against for example their missile manufacturing facilities, this would not lead to the destruction of Seoul that would potentially kill millions of people. The Kim regime knows destroying Seoul means a regime change war they don’t want.
I believe the Kim regime will respond, but in a more limited fashion that doesn’t lead to full scale war. Some examples are a limited artillery barrage or ballistic missile attack against US military targets. A terrorism attack within South Korea or against USFK personnel. There are many other things the North Koreans could do in response that does not trigger a full war. After their response the Kim regime can turn to the Chinese and the Russians to help them justify their response to the limited US strike to stop a full scale war from happening.
I think people get to fixated on these holidays because in the past there have been plenty of provocations that were not tied to any North Korean holiday:
North Korea celebrated the founding anniversary of its ruling Workers’ Party of Korea, Tuesday, without carrying out any military provocations.
But the South Korean military said it is continuously monitoring and tracking any developments in the North as the regime there could commit a large-scale provocation at any time.
“We are maintaining a thorough readiness posture in preparation for North Korea’s possible provocations,” said Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) spokesman Army Col.Roh Jae-cheon, refusing to elaborate further.
An official from Cheong Wa Dae also told reporters the North was capable of firing a missile at any time, but currently there were no signs of an imminent launch, such as fueling activities. [Korea Times]
In my opinion proclamation like this to the media are unhelpful because it is almost creating an expectation of Kim Jong-un to do something or appear weak for not conducting a provocation:
North Korea is likely planning something very provocative around Columbus Day next week, which happens to fall the day before the anniversary of the founding of the North Korean communist party, a top CIA official warned on Wednesday.
“We are concerned…that risk exists at any time on the Korean Peninsula,” said Yong Suk Lee, deputy assistant director of the CIA’s Korea Mission Center, while speaking at a conference at the George Washington University in Washington, D.C. “I told my own staff, October 10 is the Korean Workers Party founding day. That’s Tuesday in North Korea, but that’s Monday — Columbus Day holiday in the U.S. — so stand by your phones.”
“North Korea is a political organism that thrives on confrontation,” Lee added. [Newsweek]
You can read more at the link, but it has been quiet recently and it seems like we should not be encouraging the Kim regime to break the quiet to conduct more provocations.
It seems like every month now there is at least one North Korean provocation so why would October be any different?:
North Korea could carry out provocative acts in October when the country marks the anniversaries of its party’s foundation and a former ruler’s ascent to power, and China opens a key party meeting, experts said Sunday.
North Korea has used important national occasions as pretexts for military provocations and a show of force.
South Korean presidential office Cheong Wa Dae has recently raised the possibility that North Korea may launch a provocation on Oct.10, the 72nd founding anniversary of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK). [Korea Herald]
You can read more at the link, but in the article there is speculation that the Kim regime could use October 4th as a date to launch a missile because it is the 10-year anniversary of when former President Roh Moo-hyun met with Kim Jong-il in North Korea. The current ROK President Moon Jae-in was Roh’s chief of staff at the time. If Kim Jong-un really wants to make a point to President Moon that reconciliation is not going to happen on the South’s terms then a provocation on that date would be a way of doing that.
If the North Koreans do decide to commit a Chuseok holiday provocation the US and ROK military say they are ready:
The military is to remain on high alert against possible provocations from North Korea during the Chuseok holiday.
A military official said Saturday that troops are maintaining a bolstered defense posture as the North can carry out provocations at any time.
South Korean and U.S. forces are known to be closely observing any moves by the North Korean military using cutting-edge surveillance and reconnaissance assets in order to respond immediately in case of a provocation.
Authorities believe Pyongyang could engage in another major provocative act in the near future.
It’s speculated the regime could launch a ballistic missile around October tenth, which marks the founding anniversary of the North’s ruling Workers’ Party. [KBS World Radio]
Reports today are saying that missiles from the Sanum-dong missile plant are currently on the move. I guess we will see what happens in the next few days.
So what is South Korean President Moon Jae-in going to do after this latest provocation? Just last month he said a red line for him would be if North Korea developed a nuclear weapon that could be outfitted on an ICBM and that is what the Kim regime is claiming they have done:
North Korea said Sunday that it has successfully conducted a test of a hydrogen bomb that can be loaded into its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in what could be the most powerful detonation.
In an “important” announcement, North Korea said that it carried out the sixth nuclear test at 12:00 p.m. (Pyongyang Time), calling it a “perfect” success.
The announcement came hours after an artificial earthquake with a 5.7 magnitude was detected near North Korea’s nuclear site in the northeastern area. [Yonhap]
Here is what Moon Jae-in’s response is to crossing a “red line”, more sanctions:
South Korea strongly condemned North Korea’s latest nuclear test Sunday, vowing to push for fresh and the most powerful sanctions by the U.N. Security Council to completely isolate the communist state.
“President Moon Jae-in said the country will never allow North Korea to continue advancing its nuclear and missile technologies,” Moon’s key security adviser Chung Eui-yong said at a press briefing on the outcome of the National Security Council (NSC) meeting held earlier in the day. [Yonhap]
The Japanese Prime Minister’s word are in line with Moon’s in regards to taking North Korea to the UN Security Council:
The nuclear test was confirmed by the Japanese government, which said the North had conducted the blast, but criticism of the test was rife around the globe.
In Tokyo, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe slammed the test as “absolutely unacceptable” and vowed a tough response at the United Nations. [Japan Times]
Some how I doubt the Kim regime is impressed by threats of taking them to the UN Security Council. I guess we will see if the nuclear test will be enough to get the ROK government to move the blockade preventing the installment of the remaining four THAAD launchers in Seongju.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un reportedly inspecting the loading of a hydrogen bomb onto a new intercontinental ballistic missile, according to North Korea’s state media, a claim that some outside experts doubt but one that intensifies already high levels of concern on the Korean Peninsula. [AP/YONHAP]It appears this and other issues are reaching a boiling point with President Trump who heavily criticized President Moon over Twitter:
South Korea is finding, as I have told them, that their talk of appeasement with North Korea will not work, they only understand one thing!
It appears that President Trump is about to put significant pressure on South Korea over the US-ROK Free Trade Agreement despite the nuclear test:
On trade, the president’s top economic advisers remain deeply divided over a possible withdrawal from the United States-Korea Free Trade Agreement, as negotiators from both countries struggle to rewrite the five-year-old deal.
In recent days, a frustrated Mr. Trump has pushed his staff to take bold action against a host of governments, including the one in Seoul, that he has accused of unfair trade practices. But many of his more moderate advisers, including the chairman of the National Economic Council, Gary D. Cohn, believe that such a move could prompt a trade war that could hurt the United States economy.
An industry publication, Inside U.S. Trade, first reported late Friday that the administration was considering withdrawing from the treaty as early as next week.
“Discussions are ongoing, but we have no announcements at this time,” a White House spokeswoman said in an email.
But Mr. Trump, asked during a trip to the Gulf Coast on Saturday whether he was talking with his advisers about the trade deal, said: “I am. It’s very much on my mind.”
The idea of potentially withdrawing seems to have been prompted by the breakdown in negotiations between South Korean officials and the United States Trade Representative, Robert E. Lighthizer, an American official with knowledge of the situation said. [New York Times]
I think a country that should be concerned about US economic retaliation is China if President Trump follows through on a threat to cut all trade with nations doing business with North Korea:
In recent days, the president has said more sanctions, coupled with implied and explicit threats of military action, would motivate Pyongyang to change its behavior.
The Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, said on Sunday that he planned to draft a new sanctions package that would cut economic ties with anyone who did business with North Korea.
“There’s a lot we can do to cut them off economically, much more than we’ve done,” Mr. Mnuchin said, speaking on “Fox News Sunday.” He called Pyongyang’s actions “unacceptable” and stressed the need for stronger steps.
Mr. Trump went so far on Sunday as to threaten to stop “all trade with any country doing business with North Korea,” an extremely unlikely prospect that, if carried out, would have cataclysmic consequences for the global economy. China is just one of the dozens of countries that trade with the North. [New York Times]
With 90% of trade into North Korea going through China it is pretty obvious the only way for sanctions to work is to focus on China. However, the consequences of an embargo on Chinese made products would have significant repercussions on the US economy until manufacturers could reestablish product lines in other countries. Because of this it seems the sanctions on China need to be incremental to give manufacturers enough time to move out of China.
The United States is considering, in addition to other options, stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea.
Here is what China had to say about the nuclear test:
China urged North Korea to stop its “wrong” actions, after the reclusive said it had a successful test of hydrogen bomb that can be mounted onto its inter-continental ballistic missiles on Sunday.
In a statement on its website, China’s Foreign Ministry said China resolutely opposed and strongly condemned North Korea’s actions, and urged the country to respect U.N. Security Council resolutions.
North Korea “has ignored the international community’s widespread opposition, again carrying out a nuclear test. China’s government expresses resolute opposition and strong condemnation toward this,” the ministry said in the statement. [Korea Times]
Judging by this statement it doesn’t appear China is prepared to do much against North Korea in response to the nuclear test. The coming days should be interesting to see how the Trump administration responds. It is pretty clear increased sanctions are going to happen, but will there be any military response as well?
The below article makes me wonder why PACOM issued a statement about the missile launches being failures before letting a full analysis be completed?:
North Korea fired three short-range missiles on Saturday — all successful — despite earlier reports suggesting failure, according to the U.S. military.
Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the projectiles fired from the North’s eastern coast flew about 155 miles. It said South Korea and U.S. militaries were analyzing the launch and didn’t immediately provide more details.
According to earlier reports, U.S. Pacific Command spokesman and Cmdr. David Benham suggested two North Korean missiles “failed in flight” while the third one had “blown up almost immediately.”
The U.S. Pacific Command has since revised its evaluation of the missile launch, now reporting no missile failures — in line with the South Korean military assessment. [Fox News]
You can read more at the link, but this is what PACOM originally put out:
The U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM) also said, “Initial assessment indicates three short-range ballistic missile launches.”
“The first and third missiles at 11:49 a.m. (Hawaii time) and 12:19 p.m. failed in flight,” the PACOM’s spokesman Cdr. David Benham said in an emailed statement. “The second missile launch at 12:07 p.m. appears to have blown up almost immediately.” [Yonhap]
Fortunately it seems like no one is over reacting to this launch. North Korea conducts test launches during almost every Key Resolve and Ulchi Freedom Guardian military exercise. If anything this test launch is far less provocative than what they have launched in the past considering it is being reported they are either long range rockets or short range missiles:
The office said that the projectiles are believed to be artillery rockets from a multiple-rocket launcher, while the U.S. military reaffirmed its assessment characterizing those as short-range ballistic missiles.
“As of now, the unidentified projectiles fired by the North today are presumed to be improved 300-mm artillery rockets from a multiple-rocket launcher,” Yoon Young-chan, senior presidential secretary for public relations, said in a statement issued after the NSC session.
However, the U.S. Pacific Command said the projectiles were apparently ballistic missiles. [Korea Times]
Whatever they were rockets or missiles it really doesn’t matter because the strategic messaging the Kim regime is sending is that they can attack a South Korean island with missiles or rockets and follow it up with an amphibious invasion:
Korean Cenral News Agency shows on Aug. 26 North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspecting the state’s special forces engaging a simulated invasion of South Korean border islands of Baengnyeong and Yeonpyeong. / Yonhap
In a simulated attack on the South Korean border islands of Baengnyeong and Yeonpyeong, North Korean planes hit targets as its multiple-missile launchers and self-propelled gun howitzers fired in salvo and shells hit unidentified North Korean islands.
Some of the North Korean special forces also parachuted into the islands and others landed by surprise using rubber boats. The simulated South Korean targets were later enveloped in flames, according to North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but this is all situation normal on the Korean peninsula.
