The pre-summit gamesmanship has already started by the North Koreans cancelling high level talks with the South Koreans yesterday and threatening to cancel the Trump-Kim summit in Singapore:
Unification Minister Cho Myoung-gyon enters his office building in Seoul, Wednesday, after North Korea cancelled high-level inter-Korean talks unilaterally. / Yonhap
Political analysts presume North Korea’s abrupt cancellation of high-level inter-Korean talks and threats to reconsider the Washington-Pyongyang summit are aimed at taking the lead ahead of talks over its denuclearization.
Most predict the North is unlikely to spoil the current mood for dialogue but is trying to strengthen its bargaining power before negotiations and send a warning ― to the U.S., rather than to South Korea ― not to underestimate the country.
About 12:30 a.m. Wednesday, Pyongyang notified Seoul that it had cancelled the high-level talks, which were to take place in less than 10 hours, citing the ongoing South Korea-U.S. joint military drills, which it sees as a rehearsal of war.
Later in the day, North Korea’s Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye-gwan also said in a statement the country would reconsider the summit between its leader Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump, slated for June 12, if the U.S. forces the North to unilaterally give up nuclear weapons.
Experts say the exercises may not be the true reason for the North canceling talks, considering that the drills started May 11 and the North suggested the meeting four days later. Kim Jong-un also earlier told South Korean envoys that he understood the allies’ joint military drills.
“With the drills as a pretext, Pyongyang is indirectly expressing discontent at the recent hard-line stances from Washington, such as moving the North’s nuclear weapons to the U.S., removing biochemical weapons and raising an issue of human rights abuse,” said Shin Beom-chul, senior fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies. “The North is making use of the high-level talks as a chance (to express its discomfort).”
Indeed, Kim Kye-gwan said American officials’ remarks, such as “denuclearization first and reward later” and “complete abandonment of nuclear, missile and biochemical weapons,” are “thoughtless words that provoke its counterpart.” [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but what I suspect is happening is that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Kim Jong-un what the US expects of the regime from the summit during his recent trip to North Korea, but in the US media other things are being said that were not discussed previously. People bringing up that human rights should be included in the summit is an especially sensitive topic in North Korea. Threatening to cancel the summit sends a message to the Trump administration that these topics will not be discussed at the summit.
Unless something drastic happens I would be highly surprised if this summit does not happen because the Kim regime has too much to lose. South Korea’s Moon administration at least needs the Kim regime to pretend to denuclearize to justify the massive aid package they have planned to give to Kim Jong-un. They can’t attempt a denuclearization facade if they don’t even show up to the summit.
The closure of the nuclear test site is nothing, but a show that can be easily reversed; shipping nuclear materials out of the country is a real sign of denuclearization because this is cannot be reversed:
The United States has demanded that North Korea ship some of its nuclear weapons, fissile material and long-range missiles out of the country within months after next month’s summit between the two countries, sources said Sunday.
The U.S. made the demand during talks with the North to fine-tune the agenda of the summit between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un set for June 12 summit in Singapore, saying sanctions won’t be relaxed unless the demand is met, the sources said.
The North’s response to the demand is not known, they said.
The demand suggests that the U.S. believes the North’s pledge to suspend nuclear and missile testing is not enough and the communist nation should do more to demonstrate its commitment to abandon its nuclear and missile programs. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but if the Kim regime agrees to begin shipping nuclear weapons and material out of their country than we know they are in fact serious about denuclearization.
President Trump is as expected getting bashed for pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal with claims that it will impact his ability to negotiate with Kim Jong-un:
President Donald Trump announces Iran nuclear deal withdrawal. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal is a major setback to US negotiating credibility and will complicate efforts to reach an agreement with Pyongyang over its own more advanced weapons programme, analysts say.
Trump is set to hold a much-anticipated and unprecedented summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in the coming weeks to negotiate over Pyongyang’s arsenal, after it last year carried out by far its most powerful nuclear test to date and launched missiles capable of reaching the U.S. mainland.
But the US president Tuesday pulled Washington out of the 2015 accord with Teheran, pouring scorn on the “disastrous” agreement and describing it an “embarrassment” to the United States ― although European signatories and the IAEA say Iran has complied with its obligations.
Antony Blinken, who was deputy secretary of state under Barack Obama, said the White House move “makes getting to yes with North Korea that much more challenging”.
“Why would Kim … believe any commitments President Trump makes when he arbitrarily tears up an agreement with which the other party is complying?” he asked on Twitter. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but it can be argued that if the Obama administration thought the Iran nuclear deal was so great why did they not try and lobby the Senate to consent to the treaty as the Constitution requires? Consent from the Senate would have made it much harder for the President to withdraw from the treaty. This is what I will be looking for if President Trump is able to strike a deal with the North Koreans; will he try to get consent from the Senate?
As far as impacts to negotiating with Kim Jong-un, I think it is arguable that Trump is sending a message that North Korea will need to agree to denuclearize or there will not be a deal.
Here is what former nuclear negotiator Robert Gallucci has to say about North Korean denuclearization:
Robert Gallucci, former chief U.S. negotiator on the North Korean nuclear crisis, speaks during The Korea Forum 2018, Thursday. / Korea Times photo by Bae Woo-han
He noted it would not be easy work to achieve complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization (CVID), unless North Korea makes a candid declaration of its nuclear stockpile.
Gallucci said the core of the nuclear bomb that devastated Japan’s Nagasaki in 1945 was small enough to be hidden in a small “speaker box,” explaining the difficulty of reaching complete denuclearization.
He said if it was unrealistic for inspectors to find and check all the containers ― small and big, and declared and undeclared ― existing in North Korea, the pursuit of complete denuclearization would be also “nonsense.”
So rather than pursuing CVID, he said, it would be more realistic to focus on reducing the North’s nuclear capability and how to achieve this. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but this is more of the same analysis that seems intended to persuade President Trump that he should not demand complete verifiable denuclearization by North Korea in his upcoming summit.
That is what this article in the Politico suggests that President Trump is planning to do:
Taking Trump at his word during the campaign—when he decried U.S. allies Japan and South Korea as ungrateful free-riders—it would be reasonable to conclude that Trump is willing to forsake U.S. allies in the region by getting Kim to agree to negotiate away his ICBMs but ultimately leave Kim with a regional nuclear strike capability. Nuclear scholars have worried that a North Korean ICBM capability would “decouple” the United States from South Korea—the question of whether America would trade Seattle for Seoul in a nuclear conflict is a rhetorical one. We know the answer. The irony of a nuclear deal between Kim and Trump may actually be that true decoupling will happen when North Korea retains only the ability to strike U.S. allies but not the United States. Kim can simultaneously give a nod in the direction of denuclearization, remove the imminent threat to the U.S. homeland posed by his ICBMs, and expand a wedge between the United States and its allies. [Politico]
You can read more at the link, but considering that President Trump has stressed denuclearization repeatedly he would have a hard time agreeing to allowing North Korea to keep nuclear weapons that they can use to strike an ally like Japan and US bases in the region.
I hope Kim Jong-un is sincere about this, but I remain extremely skeptical:
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is said to have sent his message to the Trump administration that he would accept a denuclearization verification and intensive inspection by international inspectors including the International Atomic Energy Agency’s visit to its nuclear facilities. Kim, who announced that the regime would shutter a nuclear site in Punggye-ri over the weekend, is reported to have made more detailed reference to the possible inspection and verification for denuclearization. With the upcoming bilateral summit between Washington and Pyongyang, the negotiations on denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula will go more smoothly.
CIA director and Secretary of State nominee Mike Pompeo secretly met with Kim earlier this month to lay the groundwork for direct North Korea-U.S. talks under the condition of the regime’s complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization, South Korea’s intelligence agency said on Monday. Acting as a special envoy for Trump, Pompeo strongly urged North Korea to allow an international verification procedure to check that regime dismantles the nuclear program.
Kim reportedly said he would freeze the nuclear program, report any nuclear activities, and allow international inspectors to visit its facilities only if Washington engages in sincere negotiations, according to observations by South Korea’s intelligence agency. Pompeo is reported to have raised the need for intensive verification procedure in a short period time, citing that North Korea previously expelled IAEA inspectors. He also said inspectors may have to carry out a special inspection into nuclear facilities additionally, if necessary. Kim is said to have not raised any objection to these demands. On the timing and scope of nuclear inspections, Kim will, however, make more cautious decisions after taking into deep consideration what he will gain in return. [Donga Ilbo]
It looks like people are slowly catching on to what I said when Kim Jong-un’s nuclear test suspension remarks were hailed as some kind of major breakthrough when it isn’t:
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, second from left at the podium, presides over a plenary meeting of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea in Pyongyang on Friday. Kim declared the North will stop all nuclear and missile tests and close down its underground nuclear test site at the meeting. [RODONG SINMUN]North Korea’s announcement Friday that it will stop all nuclear and missile tests was welcomed by the South and the United States, but some critics say the statement didn’t actually indicate any interest in denuclearization from the recalcitrant state.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was quoted in a lengthy report released by the North’s state-run Korean Central News Agency Saturday as saying that no such tests were necessary anymore, “given that the work for mounting nuclear warheads on ballistic rockets was finished as the whole processes of developing nuclear weapons were carried out in a scientific way and in regular sequence.”
Kim said North Korea, starting immediately, will never use nuclear weapons nor transfer nuclear weapons or nuclear technology under any circumstances unless the country faces a nuclear provocation or threat.
The North will also “facilitate close contact and active dialogue” with neighboring countries and international society in order to guarantee the peace and security of the Korean Peninsula and the world by creating an “international environment favorable for socialist economic construction,” Kim said. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
You can read more at the link, but there has been nothing done so far by the Kim regime different from what they have done before. Everything they are doing is from their standard playbook and the Korean left and international media is largely playing along with it. I’ll start getting hopeful when international inspectors are allowed to go in and monitor their nuclear facilities and artillery and troops are withdrawn from the DMZ. Until concrete actions like this are taken this is just more of the same.
It looks like this may be what the upcoming negotiations come down to, what does denuclearization really mean?:
The White House is gearing up for President Trump to discuss denuclearization with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at their much anticipated summit next month. But what does “denuclearization” mean?
It depends on whom you are asking. To some in Washington, “the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” as Trump tweeted late last month, means Kim handing over his nuclear weapons and missile systems and allowing international inspectors to check that the regime is keeping its word.
To Pyongyang, it means something very, very different. It means mutual steps to get rid of nuclear weapons, including requiring the United States to take down the nuclear umbrella it has put up over South Korea and Japan. (……..)
At the very least, Kim would agree to relinquish his weapons only if the United States agreed to end its military alliance with South Korea, in place since the 1950-53 Korean War, Narang said. He would also likely insist the United States end its commitment to “extended deterrence” in South Korea and Japan — its threat of nuclear retaliation if its allies in Asia come under attack from North Korea. [Washington Post]
You can read more at the link, but what I think is important to realize here, is that whatever Kim Jong-un says during negotiations is what the Chinese want as well. The Kim regime has long wanted to separate the ROK from the US. Withdrawing the US military from the Korean peninsula would meet this goal. However, the Kim regime making demands to end security guarantees to Japan I think is really Beijing talking.
