Tag: nuclear weapons

If North Korea was to conduct an above ground nuclear test it would be interesting to see what the Chinese reaction to it would be since they would be affected by the fallout:

A Japanese daily says North Korea could go ahead with a nuclear test in the atmosphere as its final means of a threat to hold direct talks with the United States.

The Nihon Keizai Shimbun said in a Thursday column that there are skeptical views of North Korea conducting an anachronistic atmospheric nuclear test. However, it noted the North’s past behavior such as the shelling of South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island, torpedoing of the South’s Cheonan vessel and infiltration of special forces into the South using a submarine.

The paper argued the North will find it necessary to bring forth something even more shocking to draw U.S. attention, and quoted expert opinions that the possibility of an atmospheric nuke test can no longer be excluded.

At atmospheric nuclear explosion causes radioactive fallout in all directions and poses a devastating impact on the environment.

No country in the world has conducted such a test since China in 1980.  [KBS World Radio]

Could North Korea be showing off its nuclear and ICBM weapon tests to simply make people think they have more capability than they really have?  That is what some researchers think:

 

Ahead of a rare ruling party Congress next month, secretive North Korea is revealing details of its weapons development program for the first time, showcasing its push to develop long-range nuclear missiles despite international sanctions.

Until recently, information on the North’s weapons program was hard to come by, with foreign governments and experts relying on satellite imagery, tiny samples of atomic particles collected after nuclear tests and mangled parts and materials recovered from long-range rocket launches.

No longer. In just over a month, the North has published articles with technicolor photographic detail on a range of tests and other activities that point to fast-paced efforts to build a nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

The reason for the revelations, many analysts say, is that Pyongyang believes convincing the world, and its own people, of its nuclear prowess is as important as the prowess itself. Nevertheless, isolated North Korea’s true capabilities and intentions remain unknown.

“Close-up pictures of ground test activities are almost unprecedented from the DPRK,” John Schilling, an aerospace engineer specializing in satellite and launch vehicle propulsion systems, told Reuters.

DPRK stands for Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the North’s official name. The reclusive state has conducted four nuclear tests in the past 10 years, the last in January.

“The openness suggests that the underlying strategy is as much diplomatic as military: it is important to Pyongyang not only that they have these capabilities, but that we believe they have these capabilities,” Schilling said.  [Reuters]

You can read more at the link.

Here is the latest intelligence assessment provided by 38 North using commercial satellite data on when they think North Korea will conduct another nuclear test:

Activities detected at North Korea’s main nuclear complex in Yongbyon are increasing speculation that Pyongyang is preparing to conduct a fifth nuclear test.

Citing satellite images showing exhaust plumes that were uploaded Monday by 38 North ― a U.S. website on North Korea issues ― analysts here said Tuesday that Pyongyang may be taking preparatory steps for another nuclear test.

The analysts predict that the fifth test could be conducted on the occasion of the seventh Workers’ Party Congress, a rare congressional meeting scheduled to take place in May for the first time since 1980.

“North Korean leader Kim Jong-un apparently wants to run a big event to publicize his leadership at the Workers’ Party Congress,” said An Chan-il, head of the World Institute for North Korea Studies. “And it’s possible North Korea could test a nuclear bomb using one of the three materials ― plutonium, uranium or hydrogen.” [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link or over at 38 North.

With the nuclear threat North Korea is building and the continued territorial aggressiveness of the Chinese developing nuclear weapons in both South Korea and Japan may happen eventually anyway:

Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump has reiterated that he is open to allowing South Korea and Japan to have nuclear weapons so as to defend themselves against threats from North Korea.

Trump made the remark during a town hall meeting televised on CNN Tuesday night, stressing that the North has nuclear weapons and the U.S. is no longer rich enough to defend other wealthy nations, like Japan, South Korea and Saudi Arabia.

“Can I be honest are you? Maybe it’s going to have to be time to change, because so many people, you have Pakistan has it, you have China has it. You have so many other countries are now having it,” Trump said, referring to nuclear weapons.

“At some point we have to say, you know what, we’re better off if Japan protects itself against this maniac in North Korea. We’re better off, frankly, if South Korea is going to start to protect itself,” Trump said, referring to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

Asked again if he means it’s OK for Japan, South Korea and even Saudi Arabia to have nuclear weapons, Trump said, “It’s going to happen anyway. It’s going to happen anyway. It’s only a question of time. They’re going to start having them or we have to get rid of them entirely.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

North Korea cites @reddit comments for the prowess of its nuclear weapons. pic.twitter.com/j5yqqCOqJT

— Alastair Gale (@AlastairGale) March 22, 2016

According to civilian satellite imagery it appears that the Kim regime is preparing the Pungye Nuclear Test Site for future nuclear tests:

North Korea’s Punggye-ri site in Kilju County, North Hamgyong Province, is active and could be ready for new nuclear tests, according to 38 North, as Pyongyang continues to ignore United Nations resolutions and threaten further nuclear and ballistic missile tests.

The website 38 North, which specializes in North Korean affairs and is run by the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), said Friday that satellite imagery from March 6 and March 14 show active maintenance at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site.

The activity “does not appear directed at further tunnel excavation,” it said, but rather to maintain existing tunnels as well as to clean up after the nuclear test in January.

“It is highly likely that site is capable of supporting additional tests at any time,” the website continued.   [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read the rest at the link, but just because they are cleaning up the test site I would think does not necessarily mean there will be a test in the near term.  However, I do have to wonder who in North Korea cleans up these test sites?  Do they send some of their political prisoners into the tunnels to do the work?

Not that I endorse this, but if there ever was a case for regime change North Korea is making the strongest case for such to happen.  How would China for instance react if a country was threatening to nuke Beijing and other cities in China?  Probably not with the restraint the US is constantly told to keep:

North Korea claimed Sunday that it could wipe out Manhattan by sending a hydrogen bomb on a ballistic missile to the heart of New York City, the latest in a string of brazen threats.

Although there are many reasons to believe that Kim Jong Un’s regime is exaggerating its technical capabilities, the near-daily drumbeat of boasts and warnings from North Korea underlines its anger at efforts to thwart its ambitions.

“Our hydrogen bomb is much bigger than the one developed by the Soviet Union,” DPRK Today, a state-run outlet, reported Sunday. DPRK stands for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, North Korea’s official name.

“If this H-bomb were to be mounted on an intercontinental ballistic missile and fall on Manhattan in New York City, all the people there would be killed immediately and the city would burn down to ashes,” the report said, citing a nuclear scientist named Cho Hyong Il.  [Washington Post]

You can read more at the link.

I would not be surprised if this is a mock up intentionally published to get the international reaction it is getting:

North Korea on Wednesday caused a new stir by publicizing a purported mock-up of a nuclear warhead for the first time, with leader Kim Jong Un saying his country has developed miniaturized atomic bombs to be placed on missiles.

The North’s Rodong Sinmun newspaper carried photos on its front page that showed Kim and nuclear scientists standing beside what outside analysts say appears to be the model warhead — a small, silverish globe presented on a low table in a hangar with a ballistic missile or a model ballistic missile in the background.

The newspaper said Kim met his nuclear scientists for a briefing on the status of their work and declared he was greatly pleased that warheads had been standardized and miniaturized for use on ballistic missiles.  [US News & World Report]

You can read more at the link.

I wonder what China would be saying if another country threatened to nuke Beijing?

BEIJING, March 4 (Yonhap) — China called for calm and restraint on Friday after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ordered his military to be ready to use its atomic weapons at any time.
The order by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un marked a further escalation of tensions, a day after the North fired short-range projectiles into the East Sea in an apparent show of defiance following the U.N. Security Council’s adoption of new sanctions against Pyongyang over its fourth nuclear test and rocket launch.

“We hope that relevant countries can exercise restraint, speak and act prudently,” China’s foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei said. [Yonhap]

How Kim Jong Un bankrolls his nuclear ambitions https://t.co/v8nQUhYe9I

— Victor Cha (@VictorDCha) February 26, 2016