China and the United States agreed that efforts to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula should be “complete, verifiable and irreversible”, Chinese state media said on Saturday, reporting the results of high level talks in Washington this week.
“Both sides reaffirm that they will strive for the complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” a consensus document released by the official Xinhua news agency said.
U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had said on Thursday that the United States pressed China to ramp up economic and political pressure on North Korea, during his meeting with top Chinese diplomats and defense chiefs.
China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi and General Fang Fenghui met Tillerson and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis during the talks. Yang later met with U.S. President Donald Trump in the White House, where they also discussed North Korea, Xinhua reported.
The consensus document also highlighted the need to fully and strictly hold to U.N. Security Council resolutions and push for dialogue and negotiation, which has long been China’s position on the issue. [Reuters]
It looks like the Moon administration is still pushing for Sunshine Policy 2.0 and a peace treaty with North Korea:
Moon Chung-in, special presidential adviser for unification, foreign and security affairs. (Yonhap)
South Korea may consult with the United States about scaling back joint military exercises and deployment of American strategic weapons if North Korea suspends nuclear and missile activities, an adviser to President Moon Jae-in said Friday.
Moon Chung-in, a foreign affairs scholar and special presidential adviser, made the remark during a Wilson Center seminar in Washington, saying President Moon has proposed the idea.
“He proposed two things. One, if North Korea suspends its nuclear and missile activities, then we may consult with the United States to (on) scaling down ROK-US joint exercises and training. I think what he has in mind is we may scale down deployment of American strategic weapons over the Korean Peninsula,” the adviser said.
“Another one is linking North Korea’s denuclearization to creation of a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula,” he said. (……..)
During the seminar, the adviser said that President Moon pursues “incremental, comprehensive and fundamental” denuclearization with North Korea, beginning with a freeze on its nuclear and missile programs and a verifiable dismantlement of its nuclear facilities and materials. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but here is my view on a freeze deal. Any freeze deal should not include a peace treaty and only include the scaling down of US-ROK military exercises. A peace treaty should only be offered in return for the complete dismantlement of their nuclear and ICBM programs which we know they will never do.
The freeze deal should then have strong language in it that any non-compliance by North Korea opens them to a kinetic strike to ensure compliance. Including language that includes the use of force to ensure compliance gives the US world opinion on its side if it needs to strike North Korea. It additionally puts pressure on China to ensure that Pyongyang is complying with the deal to avoid the use of force being used against North Korea.
This AP article stresses what I have been saying for years, that the Kim regime is not crazy or suicidal, but rather quite rational in regards to their pursuit of ICBMs and nuclear weapons:
Four extended range Scud missiles lift off from their mobile launchers in Tongchang-ri in North Pyongan rovince, North Korea, on March 6, 2017. KCNA/KOREA NEWS SERVICE/AP
Early one winter morning, Kim Jong Un stood at a remote observation post overlooking a valley of rice paddies near the Chinese border.
The North Korean leader beamed with delight as he watched four extended range Scud missiles roar off their mobile launchers, comparing the sight to a team of acrobats performing in unison. Minutes later the projectiles splashed into the sea off the Japanese coast, 620 miles from where he was standing.
It was an unprecedented event. North Korea had just run its first simulated nuclear attack on an American military base.
This scene from March 6, described in government propaganda, shows how the North’s seemingly crazy, suicidal nuclear program “. Rather, this is North Korea’s very deliberate strategy to ensure the survival of its ruling regime.
Back in the days of Kim Il Sung, North Korea’s “eternal president” and Kim Jong Un’s grandfather, the ruling regime decided it needed two things to survive: reliable, long-range missiles and small, but potent, nuclear warheads. For a small and relatively poor country, that was, indeed, a distant and ambitious goal. But it detonated its first nuclear device on Oct. 9, 2006.
Today, North Korea is testing advanced ballistic missiles faster than ever — a record 24 last year and three in just the past month. With each missile and each nuclear device, it becomes a better equipped, better trained and better prepared adversary. Some experts believe it might be able to build a missile advanced enough to reach the United States’ mainland with a nuclear warhead in two to three years. [Associated Press]
You can read more at the link, including the scenarios that anyone against developing missile defense systems needs to consider.
Another example of the urgency the Trump administration has put on stopping North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:
The Central Intelligence Agency has created a special team dealing exclusively with North Korea in an unusual move underscoring the seriousness the United States attaches to the nuclear and missile threats from the communist nation.
The Korea Mission Center was established to “harness the full resources, capabilities, and authorities of the Agency in addressing the nuclear and ballistic missile threat posed by North Korea,” CIA said in a statement. “The new mission center draws on experienced officers from across the agency and integrates them in one entity to bring their expertise and creativity to bear against the North Korea target.”
A veteran CIA operations officer has been selected as the new assistant director for Korea and presides over the mission center, the statement said without identifying the officer, adding that the team will work closely with the intelligence community and the entire U.S. national security community.
“Creating the Korea Mission Center allows us to more purposefully integrate and direct CIA efforts against the serious threats to the United States and its allies emanating from North Korea,” CIA Director Mike Pompeo said. “It also reflects the dynamism and agility that CIA brings to evolving national security challenges.” [Yonhap]
North Korea could be planning an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) strike on the US with two satellites already orbiting above the Earth, an expert has claimed.
Dr Peter Vincent Pry claims that Pyongyang may be secretly developing the ability to detonate a high-altitude nuclear weapon in space which would set off the pulse, wiping out electrical systems below.
The secretive kingdom is believed to have started a satellite programme during the 1980s and successfully launched two observation satellites in 2012 and 2016, which take an estimated 94 minutes to complete an orbit of the earth.
Dr Pry, executive director of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security who sits a US Congress committee on EMPs, claimed North Korea is practising a “cyberage version” of battleship diplomacy so they can always have “one of [their satellites] very close to being over the United States”.
He said the North Koreans may use this as a bargaining chip if the US threatens to carry out military sanctions against the regime. [The Independent]
You can read more at the link, but North Korea in the recent months has actually claimed to have conducted a test run of using an electro magnetic pulse attack against US satellites.
While the US is busy trying to stop the North Koreans nuclear program, Vladimir Putin and the Russians are allegedly busy planting nuclear bombs off the US coast to create tidal waves:
A former Russian defence ministry spokesman has made an extraordinary claim that Russia is burying nuclear weapons off the coast of America.
Colonel Viktor Baranetz claims that the ‘mole nukes’ would be used to set off a tsunami which could swamp the American coast.
Baranetz made the claims in an interview with the Russian news outlet Komsomolskaya Pravda – claiming that the measures are a response to America’s vast military budget. [Yahoo News]
Maybe I should start a new daily posting here on the ROK Drop called “North Korean Threat of the Day”?:
North Korea warned Monday that it will carry out a nuclear test “at any time and at any location” set by its leadership, in the latest rhetoric to fuel jitters in the region.
Tensions on the Korean peninsula have been running high for weeks, with signs that the North might be preparing a long-range missile launch or a sixth nuclear test — and with Washington refusing to rule out a military strike in response.
A spokesman for the North’s foreign ministry said Pyongyang was “fully ready to respond to any option taken by the US”.
The regime will continue bolstering its “preemptive nuclear attack” capabilities unless Washington scrapped its hostile policies, he said in a statement carried by the state-run KCNA news agency.
“The DPRK’s measures for bolstering the nuclear force to the maximum will be taken in a consecutive and successive way at any moment and any place decided by its supreme leadership,” the spokesman added, apparently referring to a sixth nuclear test and using the North’s official name, the Democratic Republic of Korea. [AFP]
Does anyone think their nuclear program wasn’t already accelerated? I doubt the Trump administration is going to be too impressed with this claim:
North Korea pledged Monday to bolster its nuclear weapons program at maximum speed, issuing the country’s first official response to the recently released North Korea policy by the U.S. administration, which focuses on “maximum pressure and engagement.”
“Now that the U.S. is kicking up the overall racket for sanctions and pressure against the DPRK, pursuant to its new DPRK policy called ‘maximum pressure and engagement’, the DPRK will speed up at the maximum pace the measure for bolstering its nuclear deterrence,” a North Korean foreign ministry spokesman said in a statement.
DPRK is the abbreviation of the North’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
“The DPRK’s measures for bolstering the nuclear force to the maximum will be taken in a consecutive and successive way at any moment and any place decided by its supreme leadership,” according to the statement, carried by the state news wire Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). [Yonhap]
Professor John Delury from Yonsei University begins his opinion piece in the Washington Post by bringing up the old “Fireball Seoul™” scenario after any US strike on North Korea’s nuclear and missile program:
John Delury
President Trump’s missile strike on Syria won plaudits from commentators on the left and right, with some of the enthusiasm spilling over into the debate about a “military solution” when it comes to North Korea. The comparison, like much of the administration’s rhetoric about Korea, is dangerously misleading. There is no way to hit North Korea without being hit back harder. There is no military means to “preempt” its capabilities — nuclear and otherwise — with a “surgical” strike. Any use of force to degrade its weapons program would start a war, the costs of which would be staggering.
Maybe in the era of America First, we don’t care about death and destruction being visited on the 10 million people who live in Seoul, within North Korean artillery and short-range missile range.
First of all I am not advocating for a limited strike right now when there are other options still yet to be used. However, a limited strike like we saw in Syria that perhaps targets North Korea’s submarine base in Sinpo where they are developing submarine launched ballistic missiles in violation of United Nations resolution does not necessarily mean the Kim regime will destroy Seoul in response.
The first thing the Kim regime cares about is maintaining their power. Launching a massive artillery barrage on Seoul or destroying Incheon International Airport will cause a regime change war in response that they know they cannot win. The Fireball Seoul™ scenario only comes in to play if the Kim regime feels the intent of the strike is to remove the regime. There has been no talk of a strike to remove the regime, just talk of limit strikes against Kim’s nuclear and weapons programs.
Regardless here is what Professor Delury says the Trump administration should do:
Instead, the prudent move would be to open direct talks with Pyongyang that start by negotiating a freeze on the fissile-material production cycle, return of International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors, and moratorium on testing nuclear devices and long-range ballistic missiles (including satellite launches). In return, the United States should at least entertain Pyongyang’s standing request for suspension of joint military exercises with South Korea. Kim may be willing to accept something less, such as an adjustment in scale. Or he may be open to a different kind of trade — initiating talks to convert the 1953 Armistice Agreement into a proper peace treaty to end the Korean War, for example. The only way to probe these options is to get to the table. With two months of large-scale exercises coming to a close, now is a good time to do so. [Washington Post]
You can read more at the link, but Professor Delury goes on to claim that Kim Jong-un ultimately wants economic development and actually calls him the “developmental dictator”. Unfortunately he provides no evidence to support this claim.
Anyway that is besides the point, the reason the Kim regime has been persistent about seeking a peace treaty with the US is because it would then call into question the continued existence of the US-ROK alliance. The North Koreans have tried for decades to drive a wedge between the ROK and the US and a peace treaty is one way they try and do this. It is the same rationale of why they try to get joint US-ROK military exercises cancelled, to drive a wedge between the US and the ROK.
The Kim regime knows that any chance of reunification on North Korean terms is dependent on separating the US from the ROK and ultimately the withdrawal of the US military from South Korea. Without the US military backing South Korea then Professor Delury’s Fireball Seoul™ scenario becomes much more real.
