Both the Unification and the Defense Ministries believe that North Korea will not execute a high level provocation before the U.S. presidential election; instead they will display a new missile:
South Korean Unification Minister Lee In-young answers lawmakers’ questions at a parliamentary audit hearing on Thursday. [YONHAP]
North Korea appears to be preparing a measured show of force at an upcoming military parade marking the 75th anniversary of its ruling Workers’ Party, South Korea’s top inter-Korean official said Thursday.
During a parliamentary audit hearing at the National Assembly, Minister of Unification Lee In-young presented a somewhat different forecast from Seoul’s military officials — as well as his own ministry — of what lay in store during Pyongyang’s big event Saturday, for which the regime has been preparing for months.
“In the past, ahead of a U.S. presidential election, and to show off its nuclear or missile capacities, [the North] would actually fire or test [missiles],” Lee said. “But this time, we are getting indications that [Pyongyang] will conduct something on the level of lower intensity acts or shows of force.”
Lee did not elaborate on what he meant by “lower intensity,” but according to his own ministry’s report to the National Assembly, Pyongyang was likely to unveil a new “strategic weapon” it has warned about for months, which could range from a new form of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) to a submarine-launched ballistic missile.
A similar prediction was made a day earlier by Seoul’s Minister of National Defense Suh Wook, who expressed agreement with a lawmaker’s assertion that the North was more likely to display a new missile than conduct an active provocation in the form of a weapons test.
You can read more at the link, but I think this shows that the North Koreans believe if they behave it will improve their chances of a deal to reduce sanctions with the next President.
Not the best apology, but I guess it is something:
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un presides over an enlarged meeting of the political bureau of the Workers’ Party’s central committee in Pyongyang on Aug. 25, 2020, to discuss issues involving COVID-19 and the approaching Typhoon Bavi, in this photo released by the Korean Central News Agency.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has offered an apology to the South Korean people for the killing of a fellow citizen by its military earlier this week, Cheong Wa Dae announced Friday.
In a formal notice sent to the South, the North conveyed Kim’s message that he feels “very sorry” for greatly “disappointing” President Moon Jae-in and other South Koreans with the occurrence of the “unsavory” case in its waters, instead of helping them amid their suffering from the new coronavirus, according to Suh Hoon, director of national security at Cheong Wa Dae.
Notice how he still takes a shot at South Korea as being some kind of coronavirus hotbed. What makes this apology even worse is that they are apparently lying about what happened if you believe what the South Korean military is saying:
South Korean authorities have said the 47-year-old official surnamed Lee went missing at 11:30 a.m., Monday, while on duty on a patrol ship off the west coast, and was found by North Korean military personnel in the sea off Yeonpyeong Island near the maritime border at around 3:30 p.m., Tuesday.
According to the South Korean version of the story, Lee was on an unidentified floating item and expressed his willingness to defect to the North Koreans, who questioned him from a distance while leaving him in the water. About six hours later, the North Koreans shot him to death, then doused the body with oil and burned it.
Pyongyang’s account, however, differed in many crucial parts of the story.
In a notice it sent to the South, Friday, the North said an “unidentified man” who illegally intruded into its territorial waters on a floating item failed to properly respond to their verbal security checks when he was about 80 meters away. Approaching the man, the North Koreans shot two blanks, and he was seen as attempting to flee. They then fired more than 10 gunshots at a distance of 40 to 50 meters as allowed under the related rules of maritime border security.
When they approached for closer inspection, they were unable to find any trace of the body other than a large pool of blood, which led them to believe he had died from bullet wounds and sunk into the water. They subsequently set the floating item ― not the body ― on fire following the quarantine rules, according to the North’s account.
According to the notice, Lee did not express his willingness to defect.
Just think the Korean left will probably still advocate for opening the Kumgang Resort in North Korea even after this latest travesty:
Ahn Young-ho, chief directorate of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, reads a statement in Seoul on Sept. 24, 2020, on North Korea’s killing of a South Korean citizen. (Yonhap)
North Korea shot and killed a South Korean official drifting at sea before dousing his body with oil and setting it on fire, the defense ministry said Thursday, prompting the country to erupt in outrage and casting a pall over the already frayed inter-Korean ties.
The 47-year-old official affiliated with the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries disappeared from the 499-ton boat before noon Monday while on duty aboard an inspection boat in waters off the western border island of Yeonpyeong.
“North Korea found the man in its waters and committed an act of brutality by shooting at him and burning his body, according to our military’s thorough analysis of diverse intelligence,” the defense ministry said in a statement.
You can read more at the link, but one theory is that the fisheries official was trying to defect and the North Koreans shot and killed him then burned the body to prevent the spread of coronavirus.
I guess we will see if there will be an upcoming North Korean missile launch, but it seems like the timing for one make no sense right now:
In this undated photo provided Saturday, Sept. 12, 2020, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspects a construction site in Taechong-ri, North Korea, in a recovery effort from recent flood and typhoon damage. Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP
Analysts and security officials say they are watching for signs that North Korea may use an upcoming holiday to unveil new weapons or test fire a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), after a flurry of activity was detected at a key base.
Formations of troops have been seen practicing for what is expected to be a major military parade Oct. 10, the 75th anniversary of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea. Some observers say North Korea may showcase its largest missiles for the first time since 2018.
Meanwhile, imagery analysts and security officials caution that so far there is no conclusive evidence of an impending launch. But after several typhoons lashed North Korea in early September, satellite photos have shown a flurry of activity at the Sinpo South Shipyard, including in a secure basin where a barge used in previous underwater missile launches is docked.
You can tell that President Trump loves taking shots the intellectual elites in the U.S. government:
The photo, released by North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency, shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (front, second from L) speaking to former NBA star Dennis Rodman (front, R) while watching a friendly basketball game between North Korean players and ex-NBA players in Pyongyang on Jan. 8, 2014.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday acknowledged that he had considered sending former Chicago Bulls basketball player Dennis Rodman to North Korea to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
“He really does like Dennis Rodman, I will tell you. It’s sort of great. I always said Dennis would be better than some of these staffs that they used to send over to get to know him (Kim),” Trump said in an interview with Fox Sports Radio.
The sudden revelation came after the show’s host asked if Trump and Kim had ever talked about basketball.
Trump and Kim held three meeting between June 2018 and June 2019.
“He really did like Dennis Rodman. And they said we should maybe use him instead of somebody that graduated No. 1 at Harvard. Maybe we should use that and so I thought about that,” said Trump.
Here is what USFK Commander General Abrams had to say lately about North Korea’s coronavirus prevention methods:
A woman wearing a face mask exits an underpass before a poster commemorating the 72nd anniversary of the founding of North Korea, in Pyongyang, Sept. 9, 2020. AFP
North Korean authorities have issued shoot-to-kill orders to prevent the coronavirus entering the country from China, according to the commander of US forces in the South.
The impoverished North ― whose crumbling health system would struggle to cope with a major virus outbreak ― has not confirmed a single case of the disease that has swept the world since first emerging in China, the North’s key ally.
Pyongyang closed its border with China in January to try to prevent contamination, and in July state media said it had raised its state of emergency to the maximum level.
US Forces Korea (USFK) commander Robert Abrams said that the border shutdown had increased demand for smuggled goods, prompting authorities to intervene.
The North introduced a new “buffer zone, one or two kilometers up on the Chinese border,” Abrams told an online conference organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington on Thursday.
“They’ve got North Korean SOF (Special Operations Forces) out there. … Strike forces, they’ve got shoot-to-kill orders in place.”
The border closure had effectively “accelerated the effects” of economic sanctions imposed on the North over its nuclear programs, he added, with imports from China plunging 85 percent.
It looks like the gulags will have a few local Wonsan party officials added to it, regardless of if the flooding was really their fault or not:
State broadcaster KCTV showed footage of flooded streets in Wonsan
North Korea has vowed to punish local officials over a typhoon that hit the eastern coast on Wednesday.
A Workers’ Party newspaper blamed authorities in the coastal city of Wonsan for failing to prepare for Typhoon Maysak, and accused them of having an “irresponsible attitude”.
The paper did not say how many were missing, injured or dead, but said there were “dozens of casualties”.
It claimed officials failed to follow orders given by the ruling party.
Local authorities in Wonsan had been instructed to “immediately organise a project to thoroughly identify properties at risk and evacuate all residents”, Saturday’s Rodong Sinmun newspaper said.
“A decision was made to impose severe party, administrative, and legal punishment to those responsible for the casualties.”
Ruling party's rep Shin Hyun-young introduced a "forced sending" of doctors & nurses to North Korea upon prez Moon Jae-in's order. South Korea is not Cuba. The govt can't force private citizens to North Korea. Docs say to Shin, "why don't you go?"https://t.co/WxxAQev404
North Korean spy operations have entered the 21st century:
A computer-generated image of North Korea’s broadcast of mysterious numbers, presumed to be an encrypted message to its spies, on YouTube, provided by Yonhap News TV
North Korea on Saturday broadcast a series of mysterious numbers, presumed to be an encrypted message to its spies in the South, for the first time on YouTube.
A video clip was posted on the state-run Radio Pyongyang’s YouTube account, in which a female announcer read what she described as “an information technology review assignment of the remote education university for No. 719 expedition agents.”
She repeated phrases such as “No. 23 on Page 564, No. -19 on Page 479” for about one minute in the posting, which had been viewed 2,500 times as of 11 a.m. The numbers were not broadcast on the radio.
North Korea has broadcast such seemingly random numbers via radio since the Cold War era, as recently as March 7 and 13.