Tag: North Korea

This announcement may be an attempt by the Kim regime to set conditions to test an ICBM over Japan and claim it is a space launch. This gives their defenders in Moscow and Beijing a reason to defend them after they conduct a thinly veiled ICBM test at a nominal trajectory unlike their prior tests which were all lofted trajectories:

North Korea has conducted an “important final-stage” test at its rocket launching facility on putting a military reconnaissance satellite into orbit, with a plan to complete preparations for the project by April next year, according to its state media Monday.

The test was conducted at the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground on Sunday mainly to “evaluate the capabilities of satellite photography and data transmission system and ground control system,” according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

The country fired a vehicle carrying a “test-piece satellite” at a lofted angle to an altitude of 500 kilometers, an unnamed spokesperson at the National Aerospace Development Administration said in a statement carried by the KCNA.

North Korea will “finish the preparations for the first military reconnaissance satellite by April, 2023,” the official said, adding the results of the test were immediately reported to the central military committee of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

It looks like Kim Jong-un decided to remember his deceased father the best way he knows how, firing missiles:

North Korea fired two ballistic missiles on Sunday morning, South Korea’s military said, days after the regime said it successfully tested a solid-fuel engine for a new weapons system.  
   
Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) told reporters it detected the launch of two medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM) from Tongchang-ri, North Pyongan Province at 11.13 a.m. and 12.05 p.m., and that the missiles landed in the East Sea.  
   
According to the Japanese Defense Ministry, which also detected the launches, the missiles peaked at an altitude of 550 kilometers (342 miles) and flew approximately 250 kilometers before splashing down outside of Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ).  (…….)

The test came a day after regime leader Kim Jong-un attended a ceremony marking the anniversary of the death of his father and previous leader Kim Jong-il at the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun in Pyongyang, according to the North’s state-controlled Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). 

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link.

It seems like North Korea has been ready to do a nuclear test for a few months. However, it appears they are waiting for the right moment to justify them conducting the nuclear test to mitigate international condemnation. The fact that the ROK has not unilaterally cancelled the Inter-Korean military agreement despite all the provocations in recent months has denied them one of their justifications for the nuclear test:

 Prime Minister Han Duck-soo has said North Korea is ready to conduct a nuclear bomb test, but South Korea and its allies have always been prepared for the North’s major provocation.

“We gather that they are ready,” Han told Britain’s Sky News in an interview, “although we do not know exactly when” a nuclear test would happen.

North Korea has launched a flurry of short- to long-range missile tests so far this year and has widely been expected to carry out what would be its seventh nuclear test.

Han said South Korea and its allies have been on alert over the possibility of North Korea’s nuclear test.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, the Kim regime will eventually find something to justify their test. The real question is what does the U.S. and the ROK do in response?

The North Koreans are still trying to get the ROK to cancel the Inter-Korean military agreement signed under the previous Moon administration with their provocations:

North Korea fired some 130 artillery shells into eastern and western maritime “buffer zones” Monday, in what Seoul called a violation of a 2018 bilateral military agreement, amid the South Korea-U.S. live-fire drills in a border region.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said that it detected the artillery firings, thought to involve multiple rocket launchers, from Kumgang County in Kangwon Province and Jangsan Cape in South Hwanghae Province, from 2:59 p.m.

The shells splashed into the maritime buffer zones north of the Northern Limit Line (NLL), a de facto sea border, which were set under an inter-Korean military accord signed on Sept. 19, 2018, to reduce border tensions.

The JCS communicated warnings to the North multiple times, pointing out the violation of the military accord and calling for the immediate cessation of the provocation, the JCS said in a text message sent to reporters.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but if the ROK was to cancel the agreement the Kim regime could claim this as a “hostile act” as part of a justification for their long anticipated nuclear test.

I mean really what is South Korea going to do in response to a nuclear test that hasn’t already been done in the past? The only thing I see getting the Kim regime’s attention and more importantly President Emperor Xi’s attention, is if the ROK develops their own nuclear capability, which I doubt the U.S. will support. That leaves the ROK with its usual response options of show of forces which has not deterred the North Koreans:

President Yoon Suk-yeol said any new nuclear test by North Korea will be met with an international response “not seen in the past” and called on China to play a greater role to deter the North’s provocations.

Yoon made the remarks in an interview with Reuters, released Tuesday, amid growing concerns the North could conduct its seventh nuclear test after a series of recent missile launches.

Should the North forge ahead with a test, Yoon vowed a response “not seen in the past” by South Korea and its partners.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

Little Kim was recently out with her father Big Kim again:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un made a second public appearance with his daughter during a photo session with officials involved in this month’s intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch, state media said Sunday.

Photos published by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) showed the daughter, presumed to be Kim’s second child, Ju-ae, dressed in a long black winter coat with a fur collar and with her hair partially tied back, as she walked hand in hand or linking arms with her father.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but some of the speculation I have read is that Kim Jong-un is show casing his daughter now to set her up for succession. She is believed to be 10 years old so I find it hard to believe she is being set up for succession at that age.

I think it is more likely that Kim is using his daughter to soften his image in preparation for any future negotiations. His sister has long been playing the bad cop with bombastic language and threats while Kim Jong-un is the good cop where he speaks more measured and is mostly smiling in photo ops.