Tag: North Korea

Not happy with their successful satellite launch, the North Koreans apparently decided to increase tensions further by firing a ballistic missile that failed:

A photo released by the official North Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) shows the test firing of a new solid-fuel Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at an undisclosed location in North Korea, April 13. Yonhap

North Korea fired an unspecified ballistic missile toward the East Sea, but the launch appears to have failed, the South Korean military said Thursday.

The North fired the missile from the Sunan area in Pyongyang at 11:05 p.m. Wednesday, according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

It did not provide other details, adding that South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities are conducting an analysis into the launch.

The latest launch came after South Korea suspended part of the 2018 inter-Korean military tension reduction agreement in response to the North’s latest launch of a military spy satellite.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

The South Korean military has confirmed that the North Koreans did put a satellite into space, they just don’t know yet if it actually is transmitting anything:

This photo released by North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency shows the launch of a rocket carrying a spy satellite, Malligyong-1, at Tongchang-ri, North Pyongan Province, North Korea, Tuesday. Yonhap

North Korea’s military spy satellite appears to have entered into orbit, but more time would be needed to determine if it is operating properly, Seoul’s military said Wednesday.

The North launched the Malligyong-1 satellite from the country’s west coast late Tuesday in its third attempt this year, claiming it has successfully entered into orbit.

“After a comprehensive analysis of its flight track data and other signs, the satellite is assessed to have entered into orbit,” the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said in a text message sent to reporters.

“However, determining whether the satellite is working properly will take time as additional analysis is required under coordination between South Korea and the United States and relevant agencies.”

Yonhap

In response to the satellite launch the ROK announced that it is suspending part of the 2018 Inter-Korean Military Pact they have with North Korea:

Seoul on Wednesday partially suspended an inter-Korean military agreement designed to ease tensions and decided to resume surveillance operations along the border with North Korea in response to Pyongyang’s launch of a spy satellite. The South Korean government said it was a “necessary measure” for self-defense.

At an extraordinary Cabinet meeting, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo said North Korea’s latest provocation ― and violation of the agreement ― shows it has no intention to comply with it.

“A partial suspension of the agreement is a necessary measure for national security and the minimum action for self-defense,” he said after endorsing the proposal. It was subsequently approved in less than an hour by President Yoon Suk Yeol, who is on a state visit to Britain.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but there are a few good reasons why the ROK has not completely scrapped the Inter-Korean Military Pact..

It looks like the Russian assistance has paid off with the North Koreans apparently successfully placing a satellite into orbit:

North Korea said Wednesday it has successfully placed a spy satellite into orbit and will launch several more satellites “in a short span of time” to step up its surveillance capability on South Korea. 

The state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said that the North launched a reconnaissance satellite called Malligyong-1 on a Chollima-1 rocket from a launch site in Tongchang-ri on the country’s west coast at 10:42 p.m. Tuesday.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un observed the launch at the site and congratulated officials, scientists and technicians associated with the launch preparations, according to KCNA.

“The carrier rocket ‘Chollima-1’ flew normally along the preset flight track and accurately put the reconnaissance satellite ‘Malligyong-1’ on its orbit at 22:54:13, 705s after the launch,” KCNA said in an English-language report.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but according to the Joong Ang Ilbo the rocket did fly on the typical southern trajectory that North Korea has used in the past for rocket launches. A J-Alert was issued in Japan’s Okinawan islands, but was lifted after the rocket passed over the islands.

The North Koreans have repeatedly violated the Inter-Korean military agreement signed in 2018. However, experts have cautioned Seoul from ending the agreement for the following reasons:

South Korean Defense Minister Song Young-moo, front row left and North Korean Minister of the People’s Armed Forces No Kwang-chol, front row right, shake hands after signing an inter-Korean military agreement during the inter-Korean summit between South Korean President Moon Jae-in, back row left, and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang, Sept. 19, 2018. Joint Press Corps

“The agreement establishes guardrails that could prevent incidents from escalating into crises, however imperfect they may be. There is some utility in having buffer zones,” said Naoko Aoki, an associate political scientist at the RAND Corporation who specializes in East Asian security issues.

The CMA has instituted buffer zones between the two Koreas by prohibiting hostility on land, sea and air near the border. Specifically, the two sides are restricted from conducting live-fire artillery drills within five kilometers of the Military Demarcation Line (MDL). Plus, no-fly zones have been implemented along the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), along with a ban on the operation of unmanned aerial vehicles, helicopters and other aircraft within 40 kilometers of the MDL.

“Given the current tensions (between the two Koreas), it is unlikely that another agreement like this can be drawn up in the foreseeable future, so that should be taken into consideration,” she added.

Terence Roehrig, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College, echoed this sentiment, stating, “Though North Korea has violated the agreement on several occasions and is not adhering to the spirit of the CMA, South Korea is better off with the agreement in place than walking away from it.”

Roehrig added that security concerns regarding North Korea’s non-compliance with the CMA are relatively minor compared to the security and political costs of ending the agreement, which would undercut the broader goal of promoting long-term stability on the Korean Peninsula.

The absence of the military agreement would lead to increased belligerence from North Korea, analysts believe.

“Pyongyang would craft a narrative portraying Seoul as the aggressor, using South Korea’s suspension of the military agreement to justify its military provocations,” Roehrig said. 

In that sense, Aoki suggested that South Korea should further use the idea of suspending the CMA as political leverage against North Korea, instead of actually taking actions to scrap it, saying, “North Korea’s violation of the agreement makes it a problematic actor, so South Korea has the moral high ground.”

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

Bloomberg News takes a crack at explaining why Kim Jong-un’s daughter has been used to heavily in state propaganda over the past year:

The role of Kim’s daughter in state propaganda appears to be showing the public there is another generation waiting to run the family dynasty forged in the Cold War and it will rely on nuclear weapons for its survival. She humanizes Kim as a father, with the possible intent of conveying a message to North Korean parents that supporting an arms program means protecting their children from a U.S. invasion and a loss of the “unique” socialist state forged by the Kim family.

“The preservation of the Kim family rule is, of course, inextricably tied to the country’s weapons program,” said Soo Kim, a former Korea analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency, who now works at U.S.-based management consulting firm LMI. 

She added while the intent may be to soften the image of Kim Jong Un, that could be a hard sell. “The North Korean people are still starving and living under Draconian repression – missiles or not. And unless Kim takes dramatic steps to improve the living conditions of his people and give them true freedom, their perceptions of Kim are unlikely to change fundamentally.”

But that has not stopped North Korea from using the daughter for political purposes. She has appeared 16 times in public over the past year — with 13 of the events related to the military, two for sports and one for the economy, according to information from the South Korean government.

Bloomberg

You can read more at the link.

Since the North Koreans will probably try and launch their rocket on a southern trajectory is will likely pass over Japan’s southern Ryuku Islands thus the reason for the notification:

North Korea has notified Japan of a plan to launch a space rocket between Wednesday and Dec. 1, Reuters reported Monday, as the recalcitrant regime is preparing for what would be its third attempt to put a military spy satellite into orbit.

The North apprised Japan’s Coast Guard of the planned launch in the direction of the Yellow Sea and East China Sea, according to Reuters. 

South Korea has said Pyongyang may go ahead with the launch as early as “this week or so,” while urging the regime to “immediately” stop the launch preparations.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

I guess we will see if the third time is the charm for the North Koreans to get rocket to work, this time with Russian assistance:

 North Korea may launch its military spy satellite as early as “within a week or so,” South Korea’s defense minister said Sunday, citing intelligence of the North’s preparations.

Defense Minister Shin Won-sik said the launch could take place before South Korea launches its first indigenous reconnaissance satellite on Falcon 9, U.S. aerospace company SpaceX’s two-stage rocket, from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California on Nov. 30.

“South Korea and the United States are monitoring North Korea’s movements. North Korea’s preparations are under way for a launch to take place within a week or so,” Shin said in an interview aired on public broadcaster KBS earlier in the day.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

I doubt North Korea cares at all about this Joint statment because they know no one is actually going to take any real measures to stop their ballistic missile and nuclear programs:

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin (L) and South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik (R) attend the inaugural defense ministerial meeting of South Korea and the United Nations Command member states at Seoul’s defense ministry on Nov. 14, 2023. (Pool photo) (Yonhap)

South Korea and the United Nations Command (UNC) member states adopted a joint statement Tuesday condemning North Korea’s “unlawful” nuclear and missile program and vowed a united response in the case of Pyongyang’s aggression.

South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik and his U.S. counterpart, Lloyd Austin, as well as senior defense officials and representatives from 16 other UNC member states, gathered for their first meeting at the defense ministry to evaluate its role and explore ways to deepen their security cooperation.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

This is a good thought experiment, would all these university students and other anti-Israeli activists come out in defense of North Korea if South Korea responded to a Hamas like attack from the Kim regime?:

Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, right, shakes hands with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin at the presidential residence in Hannam-dong, central Seoul during a dinner meeting Sunday. 

“Even if North Korea miscalculates and commits any provocation, including a Hamas-style surprise attack, we will maintain a South Korea-U.S. combined defense posture that can immediately and resolutely punish it,” Yoon was quoted as saying, referring to the militant group’s attack on Israel last month.   
  
Austin conveyed U.S. President Joe Biden’s firm intent to further strengthen the robust South Korea-U.S. alliance more than ever, according to the presidential office.   
  
He reaffirmed his firm commitment to defend the South Korea by deploying the full spectrum of U.S. military capabilities.   

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link.