Tag: North Korea

Here is an interesting analysis by a North Korean defectors on how the Kim regime is using propaganda to influence their domestic audience that the recent provocation cycle was a success.  Also of note is how the defectors believe that the ROK propaganda speakers were of great concern to the Kim regime:

One of the most notable aspects about the joint statement issued by South and North Korea is that Pyongyang expressed regret over the land mine incident that maimed two South Korean soldiers. It’s not unprecedented, but it’s certainly not common for the North to do so. Today we sat down with our reporters Choi Song Min and Kang Mi Jin, who both are from North Korea, to get some more insight about the matter. 

My first question goes to Choi Song Min. Pyongyang has failed to apologize for its many previous provocations in the past. Why do you think it took such a different path this time? 

CHOI: It’s because the loudspeaker propaganda broadcasts on the border can do much more harm to Kim Jong Un’s leadership than any other weapons of mass destruction. Just as Kim Jong Il said, ‘You may not be able to gain surrender with bullets and shells, but propaganda broadcasts can change the hearts of ten million.’ He himself knows just how powerful broadcasts can be. It’s because it exposes the many atrocities committed over the three-generation leadership, and it could lead to discontent and resistance against the current leader.

In expressing its regret, Pyongyang specifically referred to itself as ‘the North’. By doing so, it in some ways claimed responsibility — completely different from the many times in the past when it denied its involvement. How are we to interpret this action? 

KANG: That’s right. Just until a few days ago, the North was out with its ambassador to the UN, its General Reconnaissance Bureau chief Kim Yong Chol, and its diplomats all over the world to publicly deny its involvement in the land mine incident that occurred on the southern side of the demilitarized zone. Having been so stubborn about this matter but then going along to express its regret over it and admitting to it is akin to bowing in front of the world.

What I think is more interesting is not the use of the word ‘the North’ but the word ‘regret’, which even to the smallest extent expresses its acknowledgement of wrongdoing. As mentioned earlier, in the past, North Korea has always denied its involvement, so for it to express regret shows just how desperate it was to get those loudspeakers to stop, as they could play a role in changing people’s perceptions.

The joint statement was also made public to people in the North through state-run media. What do you think people there are making of this? 

CHOI: Based on the fact that the North’s media reported on the joint statement very quickly, it’s very likely it has branded this whole incident as one of ‘Kim Jong Un’s great achievements’ and a ‘grand victory in a fight against the South’. It will play it up through public lectures and broadcast propaganda and paint it as a victory ahead of the 70th anniversary of the Party Foundation. Casting aside its regret over the land mine victory, it will promote the fact that the South halted propaganda broadcasts and agreed to hold reunions for separated families. But, North Koreans all know the typical methods used by Pyongyang, so they will have a bitter smile for themselves. [Daily NK]

You can read more at the link.

In this photo taken from an observatory on South Korea’s Ganghwa Island on Aug. 26, 2015, a North Korean soldier takes a nap at a sentry post in Kaepung on the North’s western front-line bordering South Korea, one day after North Korea lifted the quasi-war state of its armed forces. The two Koreas’ reached an agreement the previous day on defusing tensions after four days of intensive inter-Korean talks. (Yonhap)

Senior North Korean officials hold a national meeting at the April 25 House of Culture in Pyongyang on Aug. 24, 2015, to mark the 55th anniversary the next day of the day of “songun,” or the North’s military-first policy, in this photo released on Aug. 25, 2015, by the North’s Korean Central News Agency. (Yonhap)

Like I suspected the ROK offered the North Koreans some significant financial rewards if they apologized for the landmine attack.  basically what his comes down to is that two ROK soldiers had to have their legs blown off so the ROK could pay off the North Koreans to apologize.  This is another example of why the North Koreans commit provocations, because they work:

A landmark inter-Korean deal to resolve heightened cross-border tensions could give fresh momentum to bilateral economic cooperation that has been stalled due to strained relations between the archrivals, analysts said Tuesday.

The agreement, reached early Tuesday after marathon negotiations, defused the military standoff triggered by a land-mine explosion that maimed two South Korean soldiers on Aug. 4, and an artillery exchange on Thursday.

Excluding the joint industrial complex in Kaesong North Korea, inter-Korean economic projects have been in limbo since South Korea imposed a blanket ban on economic cooperation and personnel exchanges in March 2010, in retaliation for the North’s sinking of a South Korean naval vessel near the western maritime border.

Observers said the overnight breakthrough could make it possible for the two sides to restart negotiations on suspended economic cooperation projects and possibly lifting the sanctions.

The latest deal does not mention lifting Seoul’s comprehensive sanctions although it calls for high-level talks to take place as soon as possible which can touch on broader outstanding issues.

North Korea watchers speculated that Pyongyang raised the issue of lifting sanctions and the resumption of tours to the Mount Kumgang resort on its southeast coast, which were halted in July 2008 when a South Korean female tourist was shot dead by a North Korean soldier.

Seoul demanded Pyongyang allow a renewed on-site probe into the death of the tourist and take measures to ensure the safety of its citizens. Pyongyang, however, claimed it had done everything it could, including a verbal promise by then leader Kim Jong-il to make sure no such tragedy would happen again.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

Not much really since the ROK is trying to balance showing action to their domestic audience and not broadcasting things that would upset the Kim regime to where it would make it very difficult for them to deescalate.  The propaganda speakers are also a bargaining chip because the ROK right now is broadcasting little propaganda, but could threaten to broadcast more if things do not deescalate:

The loudspeakers that the military is using consist of 40 or so high-output 500 watt digital speakers that are around 4m by 3m in size. During the day, the broadcasts can be heard more than 10km away in the Kaesong Industrial Complex. At night, the sound carries as far as 24km. At the moment, the messages are broadcast intermittently. North Korea also began broadcasting propaganda into South Korea on Aug. 17. Since North Korea is using antiquated analogue loudspeakers, its broadcasts are reportedly hard to even understand in South Korea. The broadcasts that the South Korean military is sending into North Korea typically are not very political, focusing more on news in North and South Korea, world affairs, and the weather. One female defector from North Korea also takes part in the broadcasts, telling the story of how she defected and talking about her life in South Korea. But the fact that South Korea could use the broadcasts to criticize the North Korean regime if it so chose appears to be putting pressure on North Korea.  [Hankyoreh]

You can read more at the link.

I don’t see anything surprising about North Korea pushing out its forces.  The Kim regime needs its population to feel that it is in a constant state of near war with the US and only the military genius of the Kim regime is keeping the “Imperialist Yankees” at bay.  Plus it is just a good training exercise to keep his military busy:

More than 50 North Korean submarines are apparently away from their bases for operations, a sign that the North is gearing up for combat while participating in high-level talks aimed at easing tension, an official here said Sunday.

“Seventy percent of North Korea’s submarines left their bases, and their locations are not confirmed,” the South Korean military official told reporters.

The North is known to have around 70 submarines.

The unpredictable communist nation has also doubled the number of its artillery troops on the border, with the command to be combat ready, according to the official.

Top government officials from the two Koreas were supposed to resume their talks at the truce village of Panmunjom at 3 p.m. Sunday. It has not been confirmed yet whether they began the meeting as scheduled.  [Yonhap]

South Korean President Park Geun-hye has dropped everything on her schedule to meet and encourage the ROK military in the wake of the recent exchange of fire on the DMZ with the North Koreans:

Following the exchange of fire, Kim presided over an emergency meeting of the ruling Workers’ Party’s Central Military Commission, instructing frontline units to switch to a “wartime state” and fully arm themselves starting from 5 p.m. on Thursday, state media said.

The North last made the “quasi-state of war” declaration in November 2010 when it shelled a South Korean border island in the West Sea.

“Military commanders were urgently appointed and dispatched for operations to strike the enemy’s means of psychological warfare and quell possible counteraction if it did not stop the propaganda broadcasts,” the official Korean Central Television reported.

President Park Geun-hye urged the South Korean military to stay ready to react immediately to any further provocation and blasted Pyongyang for churning out security threats during her visit to a field army command in Yongin, Gyeonggi Province.

The trip, which came after she shelved her scheduled tour to southern parts of the country, was designed to examine its readiness posture and encourage soldiers, Cheong Wa Dae spokesman Min Kyung-wook said. She was briefed by commanders there on their plans to respond to potential attacks and the current movements by the North Korean military.

Presiding over a video conference with operational commanders later in the day, Defense Minister Han Min-koo also called for airtight readiness and effective situation management, saying that after the deadline the North may stage a provocation “in any way.”  [Korea Herald]

The ROK has no plans to give into North Korean demands which the Kim regime assuredly knew they would not.  The demand is just being made to justify a future provocation.  It appears the leading theory is that they will fire missiles into the Sea of Japan or a cyberattack of some kind in the near term.  It will probably be both since it appears the North Koreans are already gearing up to fire missiles:

Separately, North Korea seems to be gearing up to fire missiles, an official said, a move that could be seen as a show of force against South Korea amid escalating tensions.

“The North is showing signs of shooting off a Scud missile near Wonsan and a Rodong missile in North Pyongan Province,” the official said, citing detection results of its joint radar system with the United States.  [Yonhap]

Besides launching another DMZ provocation, a naval engagement in the Yellow Sea is always a possibility, but I don’t think they would try this now because the ROK military’s guard is way up right now.  However, they could try and fire an anti-ship missile from their mainland somewhere into the Yellow Sea near at ROK vessel.  I don’t think they would actually try and sink a ROK ship like they did the Cheonan because it would be too easy to pin the blame on them.  Remember they have never admitted to sinking the Cheonan.  They have fired these anti-ship missiles into the Sea of Japan before so firing them into the congested waters of the Yellow Sea would be a pretty good provocation.  Another, but unlikely provocation is to detain someone at the Kaesong Industrial Complex.  They have done this before and have set conditions to do it again, but I think at this point another provocation using Kaesong would probably lead to its closure which has been a cash cow for the Kim regime:

Meanwhile, South Korea said it has measures to ensure the safety of its nationals who are temporarily staying in the North.

It said it has put a partial ban on the entry of its nationals into an inter-Korean joint factory park in the North’s western border city of Kaesong.

The factory park, the last remaining symbol of inter-Korean cooperation, is home to 120 small South Korean factories producing garments, shoes, watches and other labor-intensive goods. More than 54,000 North Koreans work in the complex. [Yonhap]

I think this is all leading to the bigger provocation coming up which is when they try and do their expected October space launch.  The launch would once again violate United Nations sanctions and be a major media event where once again North Korea will be dominating the headlines.  The bottom line is that I don’t expect to see North Korea out of the news anytime soon; what they plan to do to dominate the headlines is still open to debate.

What does everyone else think the Kim regime will try to do in the coming weeks?

Russia invites two Koreas to discuss trilateral cooperation on cross-border economic zone http://t.co/7wcmllAVhJ

— KEI (@KoreaEconInst) August 19, 2015

As it turns out the North Koreans did not fire artillery at the loudspeaker on the ROK side of the DMZ and instead used an anti-aircraft weapon:

The two Koreas traded fire on Thursday after the North launched artillery shells apparently targeting propaganda loudspeakers installed across the border, threatening additional military action against the broadcasts and further heightening tension on the peninsula.

The North fired a 14.5-milimeter anti-aircraft gun once at around 3:53 p.m. at a town in Yeoncheon County, Gyeonggi Province, and then a 76.2-mm direct fire weapon “several times” at 4:15 p.m. within the Demilitarized Zone, military officials here said. Shortly after detection, the Army discharged a 155-milimeter self-propelled gun at 5:04 p.m.

The Army reported no damage. Casualties in the North were not immediately known.

Coincidentally with the exchange of fire, Pyongyang sent two separate letters to the South, calling for a withdrawal of the loudspeakers and threatening military action.

In the letter sent from the General Staff of the North Korean People’s Army to South Korea’s Defense Ministry through a border telephone channel at around 4:50 p.m., Pyongyang warned that it would initiate “military action” unless Seoul stops the propaganda broadcasts within 48 hours from 5 p.m.

In a separate letter by Kim Yang-gon, director of the United Front Department in charge of cross-border affairs, to National Security Office chief Kim Kwan-jin, Pyongyang said the broadcasts constitute a “declaration of war” but it is willing to resolve the current situation and “open a way out for the improvement of the relationship.”

Seoul said it has no plan to dismantle the speakers at this point.  (………….)

The North’s anti-aircraft gun ammunition appeared to have hit an uninhabited hill located several kilometers away from a loudspeaker set, an official at Seoul’s Defense Ministry said. Yet the North did not appear to have aimed at the equipment, he noted, without elaborating.

“We detected signs that the North Korean military staged two rounds of firearm provocation in the southern part of the Military Demarcation Line, and fired dozens of rounds of a 155-millimeter self-propelled gun as warning shots,” Joint Chief of Staff spokesman Col. Jeon Ha-kyu said at a news briefing.  [Korea Herald]

You can read more at the link.

judging by the quick reaction by the ROK forces they were likely ready for what was a pretty predictable action by the North Koreans to try and destroy one of the propaganda loudspeakers:

South Korea fired tens of artillery rounds towards North Korea on Thursday after the North fired a projectile towards a South Korean loudspeaker that had been blaring anti-Pyongyang broadcasts, the defense ministry in Seoul said.

North Korea did not immediately respond to the South’s shots, it said, as tensions rose on the peninsula.

South Korea said its detection equipment had spotted the trajectory of a suspected North Korean projectile launched at around 3:52 pm (0252 EDT), which did not appear to have damaged the loudspeaker or caused any injuries.

“Our military has stepped up monitoring and is closely watching North Korean military movements,” South Korea’s defense ministry said in a statement.

South Korea’s military raised its alert status to the highest level.

There was no mention of the firing in North Korean state media, which does not typically make immediate comment on events.

The suspected North Korean projectile landed in an area about 60 km (35 miles) north of Seoul in the western part of the border zone, the defense ministry said. South Korean residents in the area were ordered to evacuate, according to the South’s Yonhap news agency.

Yonhap reported that the projectile appeared to have landed in a mountainous area near a South Korean military base in the town of Yeoncheon.  [Reuters]

You can read more at the link, but this will not be the last of the tit-for-tat along the DMZ as the North Koreans have threatened more military action if the propaganda speakers are not taken down in 48 hours.  In preparation for more provocations civilians along the western DMZ are being evacuated.