Tag: North Korea

The deployment of THAAD has nothing to do with the radar being able to look into China, but more to do with trying to create a wedge between the US and the ROK according to analysts:

Analysts say China’s leadership is reluctant to impose tougher sanctions on North Korea because a sudden collapse of the regime could spark a refugee crisis at its border and lead to a pro-U.S., democratic Korea on its doorstep.

Kim Heung-kyu, head of the China Policy Institute at South Korea’s Ajou University, said relations between South Korea and China face a test because Beijing views the THAAD battery as a way of strengthening the alliance with Seoul, Washington and Tokyo.

“China does not regard the THAAD system as an issue of missile or radar, but a ‘regional alliance’ among South Korea, the U.S. and Japan,” Kim said. South Korean and U.S. officials made it clear that the THAAD battery, if deployed, “would be focused solely on North Korea.”

Still, there is a risk that the deployment of the THAAD battery in South Korea could make it difficult for Seoul to seek Beijing’s cooperation against Pyongyang, Kim said.

“With regard to the denuclearization of North Korea, I am not positive about whether the THAAD system is a useful option or not,” Kim said.  [Korea Herald]

You can read more at the link.

Both Kerry and Abe calling NK missile launch unacceptable. But what will they actually do? We'll see. https://t.co/IDo1vNMlD9

— Erik Slavin (@eslavin_stripes) February 7, 2016

This image, captured on Feb. 7, 2016 from the North’s Korean Central TV Broadcasting Station, shows a document signed the previous day by the country’s leader Kim Jong-un authorizing the launch of the “Kwangmyongsong-4” satellite. North Korea said in a special broadcast it has succeeded in placing the satellite into orbit. The rocket launch is widely viewed as a disguised ballistic missile test. (Yonhap)

The Chinese government is upset about the talks between the US and South Korea to deploy the THAAD missile defense system to the ROK and their complaints when looked at objectively pretty much justifies the deployment of THAAD to Korea:

China summoned South Korean Ambassador Kim Jang-soo to protest against Seoul and Washington’s agreement to begin talks on deploying a U.S. Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery in South Korea..

Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin called in the ambassador Sunday to protest.

It is the first time the Chinese government has called in Kim, a former defense minister, who assumed the post last March.

Earlier, the Chinese foreign ministry had expressed “deep concern,” about the THAAD discussions.

Hours after the North Korean rocket launch Sunday, South Korea and the U.S. said they would begin talks on deploying the THAAD battery. The launch is widely viewed as a covert ballistic missile test to develop delivery vehicles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

“China’s position on the issue of anti-missile is consistent and clear,” the Chinese foreign ministry said in a faxed statement, Yonhap News Agency reported. [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but here is the part of their complaint when looked at objectively pretty much justifies deploying THAAD to Korea:

“Countries, when pursuing their own security, should take into account others’ security interests as well as regional peace and stability.”

The Chinese should heed their own advice because their actions to allow the Kim regime to continuously destabilize regional security and threaten the security interests of South Korea is why THAAD looks like it will be deployed to Korea in the first place.

This photo, released by the North’s Korean Central TV Broadcasting Station on Feb. 7, 2016, shows North Korea’s “Kwangmyongsong-4” satellite being fired from the Dongchang-ri launch site in Cholsan, North Pyongan Province. The North launched the rocket in a move widely viewed as a disguised ballistic missile test in defiance of United Nations Security Council resolutions. (Yonhap)

Like I have been saying for months, official talks to deploy THAAD to Korea would probably happen once the ROK government had the political cover of a North Korean provocation which the latest rocket launch has given them:

South Korea and the United States have agreed to begin negotiations for the deployment of an advanced American air defense system on South Korean soil, officials said Sunday, despite opposition from China and Russia.

The announcement on the controversial defense system, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, was given just hours after North Korea launched a long-range missile as part of the continual push of its intercontinental ballistic missile tests.

“The U.S. and South Korea have decided to start official discussion on the possibility of U.S. Forces Korea’s deployment of THAAD as part of measures to upgrade the South Korea-U.S. alliance’s missile defense posture against North Korea’s advancing threats,” Yoo Jeh-seung, deputy minister for policy, said in a joint briefing with Lt. Gen. Thomas Vandal, the commander of USFK’s Eighth Army.

Vandal said the decision was made upon USFK Commander Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti’s recommendation, adding that “it is time to move forward on the issue.”  [Yonhap]

The North Koreans have provided the US with some pre-Super Bowl fireworks:

North Korea launched a long-range rocket on Sunday carrying what it has called a satellite, but its neighbors and Washington denounced the launch as a missile test, conducted in defiance of U.N. sanctions and just weeks after a nuclear bomb test.

The U.S. Strategic Command said it had detected a missile entering space and South Korea’s military said the rocket had put an object into orbit, quashing earlier media reports indicating the rocket might have failed in flight.

“Everything we have seen is consistent with a successful repeat of the 2012 (launch),” said U.S. missile technology expert John Schilling, referring to a previous launch of what the North said was a communications satellite.

“But it’s still too early to tell for sure,” said Schilling, who is involved in the “38 North” monitoring project at Johns Hopkins University.

The rocket was launched at around 9:30am Seoul time (7.30 p.m. ET/0030 GMT) in a southward trajectory. Japan’s Fuji Television Network showed a streak of light heading into the sky, taken from a camera at China’s border with North Korea.  [Reuters]

You can read more at the link, but I thought the North Koreans may try and launch this right after the Super Bowl or during halftime in an attempt to garner additional media attention in the US.  The timing today means they will dominate the media cycle until the Super Bowl starts and then this launch will be largely forgotten by most Americans.

Anyway something dangerous about the timing was that the North Koreans fired before their announced launch window by giving a last minute notification to the International Maritime Organization to get aircraft out of the area:

Japanese and South Korean airlines  altered flight paths to avoid possible falling rocket parts. Based on coordinates provided by North Korea to the IMO, the first stage and fairing of the rocket will drop off in waters between South Korea and China. Its second stage is expected to fall into waters off the Philippines’ northern coast.  [CNN]

The North Koreans apparently launched the rocket early because of favorable weather conditions.

But on Friday, North Korea informed United Nations agencies including the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that it will move up its expected launch window to between Feb. 7 and Feb. 10.

Seoul officials saw the move to reflect the good weather during that time frame. [Joong Ang Ilbo]

What is more important is how well did the rocket perform?  The ROK government is confirming that an object was put into orbit:

South Korea’s Defense Ministry has confirmed that the payload on North Korea’s long-range missile entered into orbit:

A ministry official said, however, that more analysis is needed to confirm if the alleged satellite is normally operating.

The North Korean long-range missile launch was first detected at 9:31 a.m. by the South Korean Air Force’s Peace Eye aircraft and identified by the Navy’s Aegis destroyer as a missile.

The defense ministry said that the missile was successful in its first-stage separation at around 9:32 a.m., with the first stage exploding in midair into about 270 pieces in the process.

It said the missile appears to have disappeared from the South Korean military’s surveillance radar right after the missile shed its fairing southwest of Jeju Island at 9:36 a.m.  [KBS Global]

What will next be interesting to see is if the object is tumbling or not within orbit which reportedly their 2012 satellite was doing.  This will be a big achievement for the North Koreans if they actually do have a functioning satellite in orbit.

World leaders for their part are giving their usual condemnations of the launch which violated UN sanctions once again to include ROK President Park Geun-hye:

As North Korea pushed ahead with a long-range rocket launch in defiance of international warnings, the South Korean president convened a meeting of her National Security Council. At the meeting, President Park Geun-hye called for joint action among the international community to deal with North Korea.
Our Kim Bum-soo reports.

Report: President Park Geun-hye has strongly condemned North Korea’s long-range missile launch, calling it a direct challenge to the international community.

Presiding over the National Security Council(NSC) meeting at the presidential office on Sunday, Park stressed that the global community must come up with strong sanction measures to penalize the North.

[Sound bite: President Park Geun-hye (Korean)]
“This long-range-missile launch is a direct challenge to the international community as it came whilst the UN Security Council is discussing sanctions against North Korea for its nuclear test… The move by the North is a direct violation of the UNSC resolutions that ban ballistic missile launches, and the Security Council must swiftly produce strong measures under the perception that Pyongyang’s missiles and nuclear weapons pose a real threat to the international community.”

Calling the launch an unacceptable provocation, the South Korean president stressed that the missile launch is aimed at advancing the nuclear delivery system alongside nuclear weapons development.

She said that the government should take all necessary measures to strengthen the response capabilities under the South Korea-U.S. alliance.  [KBS Global]

I guess we will see what happens, but I doubt any serious consequences will happen to the North Koreans because the Chinese will continue to block or circumvent any real sanctions against the regime.

As more details about the launch become available I will post them here on the ROK Drop.

Even if the North Koreans successfully put a satellite into orbit if they do launch their rocket, it still does not validate their ICBM technology since they haven’t tested a reentry vehicle:

It is believed that North Korea may launch a rocket with a range of 13,000 kilometers during its purported satellite launch scheduled for later this month, according to analysts and officials, Wednesday.

It will likely be a three-stage rocket capable of carrying a satellite weighing up to one ton. If the test succeeds, North Korea could load a nuclear warhead onto the rocket that could theoretically hit a city on the U.S. mainland.

It remains to be seen whether the rocket can withstand heat of up to 7,000 degrees Celsius caused if it re-enters the Earth’s atmosphere after making it into outer space.

The re-entry phase of a rocket to the Earth’s atmosphere is essential as part of the inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) technologies that Pyongyang has pursued.

It is also questionable whether North Korea’s ICBM can hit a targeted area, most likely one on the U.S. mainland, even after it successfully re-enters the Earth’s atmosphere. [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.

I guess all the Kim regime’s threats of turning South Korea into a “Sea of Fire” does not count:

North Korea said Friday it has never threatened to attack South Korea with its nuclear weapons, claiming that its possession of nuclear bombs is for self-defense against the United States.

The North has called on the U.S. to abandon its hostile policy toward North Korea, saying that its four nuclear tests were an act of deterrence against what it calls Washington’s attempt at nuclear attacks.

“The reason why we’ve had the nuclear deterrence is not for dropping nuclear bombs on people in the South,” the Rodong Sinmun, North Korea’s main newspaper, said in a commentary. “Our nuclear weapons program is aimed at crushing Washington’s bid to stage a nuclear war and securing peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

The Senate sets North Korea sanctions vote for next week – https://t.co/RnU28Ntcdy via @thehill

— KEI (@KoreaEconInst) February 5, 2016