Dennis Halpin at NK News has a long article about how the Chinese could turn to Kim Jong-un’s half brother, Kim Jong-nam to lead North Korea if they tire of Jong-un’s antics. It is a good read about Kim Jong-nam if you don’t know much about him, but it seems installing him with a palace coup would be tough to do in North Korea:
Kim Jong Nam, despite a globetrotting playboy image which has seen him periodically surface in Southeast Asian watering holes in Indonesia and Malaysia, has voiced criticisms of his younger brother similar to those espoused by his own student son. Kim Jong Nam reportedly emailed a Japanese journalist in 2012 a prediction that “the Kim Jong Un regime will not last long.” He has also voiced support for economic restructuring, stating that “without reforms, North Korea will collapse,” which would be music to the ears of the leadership in Beijing. Kim Jong Nam’s close familial ties to his purged uncle, Jang Song Thaek, who was widely seen as Beijing’s point man in Pyongyang, would also likely earn him kudos among the Chinese leadership facing a quandary of what to do about North Korea. The question is how to preserve a reliable buffer state against American influence in South Korea while curbing Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs which increasingly threaten regional stability. Kim Jong Nam, despite his bad boy image, would likely prove far more pliant than his disagreeable and defiant little brother. [NK News]
You can read the rest at the link, but I look at Kim Jong-nam more likely taking power if a regime collapse scenario was to happen and the Chinese intervened and needed to get a new leader quickly in place. Kim Jong-nam could then open up the country following the Chinese model becuase Kim Jong-nam does not have any human rights violation, crimes against humanity, or any other excess baggage hanging over his head if he decides to open up the country and the reality of the North Korean gulags becomes public. He can blame it all on the old regime and vow that he is working on fixing the problems the old regime created. This may be enough to get world leaders to except him and work to drop sanctions and offer financial assistance in exchange for ending their nuclear program.
Those are just some quick thoughts I have, does anyone else see any other scenario that Kim Jong-nam could take power?
It looks like ROK intelligence must have had some chatter warning them of a possible upcoming cyberattack:
South Korea has upgraded its military information surveillance status in response to growing threats of North Korean cyber attacks, a military official said Sunday.
“We believe there’s a larger possibility that North Korea may launch cyber attacks on the South, and recently upgraded our Information Operation Condition,” the official said, without elaborating further. [Korea Herald]
This just proves that the Chinese government is using North Korea to drive a wedge between the US and the ROK. Declaring peace with North Korea would mean an end to the reason for the existence of US Force Korea (USFK) which is what the Chinese and North Koreans both want. If China wants a more normal relationship how about they have North Korea stop threatening to nuke the US or turn South Korea into a Sea of Fire? Or how about they get them to stop launching deadly provocations against South Korea and comply with United Nations resolutions?
Chair for the foreign affairs committee of China’s National People’s Congress Fu Ying speaks at the Munich Security Conference.PHOTO: EPA
The US and North Korea need to formally declare an end to 76 years of hostility if the international community wants North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to stop developing nuclear weapons, a top Chinese foreign policy official said.
“North Korea and the US still have not made peace, they’ve been in an extended cease-fire,” said Fu Ying, who chairs the foreign affairs committee of China’s National People’s Congress.
“You need to think how to bring an end to the war and enter a more normal relationship.” [The Straits Times]
You can read more at the link, but in the fantasy land of peace in our time with North Korea does anyone really think the Kim regime would stop their provocations against South Korea? Without the backing of the US, the provocations would likely get worse and more threatening. The Kim regime has never accepted the legitimacy of the ROK and continue to be postured and train for the forceful reunification of the peninsula.
Over at One Free Korea there is a post up that discusses some of the inside baseball involved with the passing of the North Korea sanctions bill that is set to hit the President’s desk. I found it interesting that Senator Rubio had such an interest in North Korea that he read the entire bill and left his own track changes comments. Even Senator Feinstein has come out in strong support of the bill:
By now, most of you know that the North Korea Sanctions and Policy Enhancement Act, the Senate’s version of H.R. 757, passed the Senate unanimously Wednesday night. The House is expected to pass the Senate’s version this morning and send it to the President’s desk.
In an election year, when floor time is especially precious, it was remarkable and humbling that the Senate spent an entire day debating this bill. Senator after senator came to the floor to give supportive speeches. If you read only one of them, read the moving speech of Senator Diane Feinstein (D, CA) about human rights, but be warned — this is the stuff of nightmares, and not for children’s eyes.
The speeches should be available on video here within the next few days. [One Free Korea]
You can read the rest at the link, but the house approved the Senate’s bill with a vote of 408-2. It appears that how to deal with North Korea has more bipartisan support now then even how to deal with ISIS.
Jung Ki-sup, chief of the association of 124 South Korean firms at the Kaesong Industrial Complex in the North’s border city, speaks to reporters after meeting with lawmakers of the ruling Saenuri Party at the National Assembly in Seoul on Feb. 12, 2016. The Kaesong-based firms are expected to see huge losses, as the North expelled all South Korean nationals from the complex the previous day and froze the factory assets of South Korean firms in retaliation for Seoul’s decision to shut down the complex. (Yonhap)
