Tag: North Korea

The Patriot PAC-3 is designed to shootdown short range ballistic missiles not an intermediate range missile which the category the Musudan falls under.  That is what the THAAD system is for:

A medium-range ballistic missile launched Wednesday by North Korea flew at an average speed of Mach 11.3, or 11.3 times faster than the speed of sound, according to an analysis of a timeline seen on a monitor at the launch site.

The hypersonic speed of Mach 11.3 has sharply raised concerns about the capabilities of the Patriotic Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missile defense system that the South Korean military has purchased to upgrade its existing PAC-2 missile defense system. The PAC-3 flies at Mach 3.5 to 5 and intercepts incoming missiles at altitudes of up to 40 kilometers (25 miles).   [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link, but a professor at the Korea National Defense University explains in the article that THAAD can shoot down the Musudan.  This is all the more reason why both Japan and the ROK should look at either purchasing their own THAAD system or deploying one into theater from the US.

If North Korea continues with their heavy flight testing schedule this seems like it could be a realistic estimate:

North Korea’s missile launch was a “partial success” that suggests the provocative country could have a road-mobile ICBM capable of reaching the U.S. mainland by early next decade, a U.S. think tank says.

After failing in four previous tries, the North fired back-to-back Musudan missiles in just over two hours Wednesday. The first was considered another failure, but the second flew 620 to 880 miles high before falling into the Sea of Japan.

The actual distance traveled — 250 miles — was well short of its potential range that would put it within range of Japan and U.S. bases in the region. Experts said the missile was fired at a high angle to avoid provoking Japan, but the ability to achieve that altitude shows that the North Koreans are making technical progress.

The U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University, in its 38north.org blog, called the test a “partial success.” But it noted that six tests since mid-April despite repeated failures suggest the Musudan is not the North’s long-term focus.

“This isn’t so much an engineering program so much as an exercise in tossing a coin or rolling a die until it comes up with the result they like,” analyst John Schilling wrote in Thursday’s post.

However, he said, it was the first time the Musudan’s engine, which is shared by North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missiles, was flight tested. Previous tests either crashed or exploded prematurely.

“This partial success increases the likelihood that North Korea’s KN-08 and KN-14 road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) will reach operational status early in the next decade,” he said.
“We still don’t expect them to have those missiles operational before 2020, but early flight testing by that date is increasingly likely,” he added.  [Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link.

South Korean president says nuclear North Korea not sustainable as nuclear power https://t.co/NqZ6jSbeTO

— Elizabeth Shim (@GlobalAsianista) June 24, 2016

This could be taken as a sign that the sanctions are working at strangling the Kim regime if they are resorting to counterfeiting US dollars that are not as of high quality as the ones seen in the past:

Image via the Asia Sentinel.

Following initial reports last week that a North Korean agent was arrested in the border city of Dandong in Liaoning Province, northeastern China, multiple sources confirmed Wednesday that the official had been involved in distributing counterfeit U.S. dollars.

After years of circulating counterfeit $100 banknotes, North Korea’s so-called supernotes seemed to have disappeared in recent years. Pyongyang’s forged $100 bills, considered nearly flawless, were a major source of slush funds for the regime and date back to the 1970s. But a major crackdown by U.S. authorities and new security features on banknotes led to a decline in the trade.

The recent arrest indicates their possible resurgence.

One source familiar with Beijing-Pyongyang relations told the JoongAng Ilbo that the agent captured by Chinese officials earlier this month brought $5 million in cash into China from North Korea in order to make payments for household goods and home appliances.
These goods were supposedly distributed to the North Korean people during the April 15 celebration of the birthday of the country’s late founder, Kim Il Sung, as well as during its ruling Workers’ Party’s seventh congress held in early May, the first of its kind in nearly four decades.

Because of international sanctions on North Korea, including those in UN Security Council Resolution 2270 passed in March, Pyongyang is being blocked from financial transactions giving it access to U.S. cash.

“The $5 million was exchanged at the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and the Agricultural Bank of China for some 30 million yuan [$4.6 million] and then deposited,” the source said.

“But a number of the notes were found to be counterfeit $100 bills when they were run through the banknote counter by a bank employee, so Chinese authorities ordered the relevant account be frozen and arrested the North Korean agent.”  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link, but this does make me wonder if North Korea is the only country that traffics in state sponsored counterfeiting?

https://twitter.com/pearswick/status/745903052712976384

North Korea’s top leader Kim Jong-un (seated) and military officials are elated after watching what the country claimed as a successful launch of its ballistic missile Hwasong-10 in this photo released by the North’s ruling party newspaper Rodong Sinmun on June 23, 2016. The North claimed success in the June 22 launch of the missile, known as the intermediate-range Musudan in the outside world, saying it flew the targeted 400 km and re-entered the atmosphere after soaring to an altitude of 1,413.6 km. If true, it would mark significant progress in the North’s missile technology. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

I would like to see him try because Japan and Okinawa already have Patriot and Aegis missile defenses while THAAD was deployed to Guam specifically to defend against the Musudan missile threat.  I will be more concerned if they successfully develop an submarine launched ballistic missile capability:

Leader Kim Jong-Un threatened US military bases across the Pacific after North Korea’s test of a powerful new missile triggered emergency UN Security Council talks on curbing Pyongyang’s nuclear programme.

Kim, who personally monitored Wednesday’s Musudan missile test, applauded a “great event” that significantly bolstered the North’s pre-emptive nuclear attack capability, the official KCNA news agency reported.

“We have the sure capability to attack in an overall and practical way the Americans in the Pacific operation theatre,” Kim was quoted as saying.

A Korean-language version of the same report had Kim referring to “the American bastards.”

The Musudan has a theoretical range of anywhere between 2,500 and 4,000 kilometres (1,550 to 2,500 miles), with the upper estimate covering US military bases as far away as Guam.

After a string of failures in recent months, North Korea tested two Musudans on Wednesday, one of which flew 400 kilometres into the Sea of Japan (East Sea).

KCNA said the missile had been fired at a high angle to simulate its full range, and had reached a maximum height of more than 1,400 kilometres.

The test “marked an important occasion in further strengthening the nuclear attack capacity of our state,” Kim said.  [AFP]

You can read more at the link, but this picture released by North Korea shows how much Kim Jong-un had invested in the successful development of the Musudan:

These two looked happier than Lebron James winning the NBA Championship.

This announcement by North Korea makes it pretty clear that they are deliberately organizing the Chinese fishing boats to intrude into South Korea as a form of asymmetric warfare against the South:

North Korea on Monday slammed South Korea for its operation with the United Nations Command (UNC) to repel Chinese fishing boats operating illegally in neutral waters between the two Koreas, calling the move a “military provocation.”

This marks the North’s first official reaction to South Korea and the UNC’s joint crackdown on Chinese fishing vessels operating in the neutral waters of the Han River estuary.

Fishing vessels that are officially registered with either South or North Korea are allowed into the neutral waters. Each side could send military police officers into the no man’s land to enforce rules under the armistice agreement.

South Korea’s move is aimed at “escalating the intrusion into the hotspot waters in the West Sea of Korea into the inland to secure a chance for military provocation,” the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said in an English dispatch.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but I continue to believe if the ROK seizes the illegal Chinese fishing boats and then auctions them off and gives jail time to the crew members that would end the incentive for these people to illegally fish in South Korean waters.

https://twitter.com/pearswick/status/744693726249791488

North Korea as expected fired off two more Musudan missiles.  The first one was considered a failure after it blew up shortly after launch.  However, the second launch analysts have not determined if it was successful or not:

North Korea launched what appeared to be two Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) from its east coast early Wednesday morning, with the first test-firing assumed to have been unsuccessful, the Joint Chiefs of Staff said.

At around 5:58 a.m., North Korea fired off what is presumed to be a Musudan missile from near Wonsan along the east coast, but it seems to have ended in failure, the JCS said, without further details

About two hours later at 8:05 a.m., the North launched another missile presumed to be the same type of IRBM from the same area, the JCS noted.

Whether the second missile’s launch was successful was not immediately known. All previous launches of the missile ended in failure, dealing a blow to the credibility of North Korea’s missile program.

On April 15, North Korea first test-fired the Musudan missile as the country kickstarted its ballistic missile tests and development following North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s much-published orders to accelerate the country’s nuclear and missile sophistication the previous month.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but the Joong Ang Ilbo is reporting the first one traveled 150 kilometers before exploding and the second one traveled 400 kilometers:

North Korea launched back-to-back Musudan missiles Wednesday, one of which flew 400 kilometers (250 miles), South Korean military officials said.

While 400 kilometers fell far short of the Musudan’s 3,500-kilometer capability, which puts U.S. military bases in the Pacific within range, South Korea was alarmed at the technological progress shown.

Pyongyang carried out its fifth and sixth intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) tests at 5:58 a.m. and 8:05 a.m. Wednesday from the eastern coast city of Wonsan in Kangwon Province, the Joint Chiefs of Staff reported.

“The first one disappeared after it was detected by radar while the second one flew about 400 kilometers,” said a Joint Chiefs of Staff official who asked not to be named.  (……..)

The South Korean military believes the first missile exploded in midair after flying about 150 kilometers. The second missile fired two hours later appeared to have exploded or crashed into the sea after flying 400 kilometers.

The exact causes of the failures are still being determined by Seoul and Washington.

It is possible that North Korea intended its sixth Musudan missile to fall after flying 400 kilometers to prevent it from going over Japan, which would have prompted the country to respond militarily.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link, but I doubt North Korea would try and fly a Musudan over Japan without being very confident that the missile would work.  They have fired over Japan before, but never with a missile under development like the Musudan is.  I don’t think Kim Jong-un would want to deal with a potential retaliatory military response if a failed missile landed in Japan.  It is pretty clear though that Kim Jong-un is committed to testing the Musudan until his scientists perfect the technology.  These latest missile tests seem to indicate they are getting closer to that goal.