Considering how vigorously the Kim regime is conducting missile testing this estimate sounds about right if conditions don’t change:
Former U.S. Forces Korea Commander Gen. Curtis M. Scaparrotti has expressed strong concern that North Korea could have proven intercontinental ballistic missile capability in three to four years.
“I think we need to continue in every way we can to put pressure on this country to bring them to follow the United Nations Security Council resolutions,” Scaparrotti said during the Aspen Security Forum in Washington on Thursday, according to the Defense Department news.
“I am very concerned about what he has today, but I am more concerned about what he will have in three or four years — when he has a proven intercontinental capability, when he has perhaps figured out the submarine capability and when he has built more nuclear devices,” he said, referring to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
Scaparrotti, currently NATO’s supreme allied commander in Europe, also said that the sanctions brought against the North Korean leader were a good step and also expressed support for the planned deployment of the THAAD missile defense system in South Korea. [Yonhap]
Here we go again with another group of North Korean soldiers pillaging a Chinese town. This is not the first time this has happened and likely won’t be the last:
Five North Korean soldiers who deserted their posts with weapons engaged in a shootout with Chinese authorities on Thursday after armed robberies in Jilin Province, according to diplomatic sources.
The soldiers entered China through Hyesan city in North Korea on July 23 and committed an armed robbery in Changbai Korean Autonomous Prefecture in Jilin Province.
As the robbery spree intensified, the Chinese army and police formed a task force to catch the soldiers and a major shoot out ensued in a town inside the prefecture on Thursday.
Two of the soldiers were arrested but many of the Chinese were injured. Two Chinese police officers were rushed to a nearby hospital in a critical condition.
Chinese authorities have launched a manhunt for the three remaining soldiers.
“Authorities have issued a curfew to local residents until they arrest all the culprits,” a diplomatic source said. [Korea Times]
Fortunately no one has been killed yet by these thugs unlike what happened in 2014 when a rampaging North Korean soldier killed four elderly Chinese citizens.
Being responsible for managing overseas workers looks like a very undesirable job to have in North Korea considering the increasing number of prominent defections happening:
North Korea publicly executed six officials in charge of supervision of its workers overseas in May following the defection of 13 workers at a North Korean-run restaurant in China a month earlier, a local Pyongyang watcher said Friday.
“North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ordered six officials, including intelligence officials, to be executed publicly on May 5 due to their lack of control over overseas (North Korean) workers,” Choi Seong-yong, chairman of the Abductees’ Family Union, claimed, citing people familiar with the matter.
Eighty public officials and 100 people who have their family members working overseas were forced to watch the execution, he said.
In early April, a group of 12 women and one man fled from a North Korea-run restaurant in China’s eastern port city of Ningbo and defected to South Korea. In the following month, three female workers at a North Korean restaurant in the midwest city of Shanxi reportedly defected to the South.
“North Korea locked the families of the defectors up and forced them to take ideological education at a training facility in Myohyang Mountain, in the northern part of the communist country,” Choi said. [Yonhap]
The Korea Times has an article that explains how an increasing number of prominent defections are happening:
More and more North Koreans from various social backgrounds are fleeing their country in pursuit of better lives in South Korea, the United States and other countries.
A teenage math prodigy refused to return home and has sought asylum at the South Korean consulate in Hong Kong after participating in the International Mathematics Olympiad there in early July, media outlets there reported Thursday.
Diplomatic sources said Friday that a top military officer and three diplomats fled from North Korea this month and are on their way to third countries via China.
Some other sources claimed a construction worker and two employees at a North Korean restaurant in Malta presumably defected to South Korea after deserting their respective workplaces between 2015 and early this year.
Noting that those defectors are from the middle- and upper-classes, analysts speculated that a growing number of North Koreans regardless of their backgrounds are unhappy with their country’s young leader Kim Jong-un in the wake of sanctions and the country’s accelerated isolation. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but it makes me wonder if this is being caused by a combination of the sanctions, disillusionment with the Kim regime and the subversive media entering into North Korea challenging the constant propaganda that North Koreans have to deal with every day.
This just goes to show that all the aid money and tourism dollars that people give to North Korea helps provide the necessary funding to continue these programs:
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is believed to have spent at least 110 billion won ($97 million) firing a total of 31 ballistic missiles over the past five years, according to data from the Ministry of National Defense, Wednesday.
Kim has fired 16 Scud short-range ballistic missiles, six Rodong medium-range ballistic missiles, six Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) and three submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) since he inherited the totalitarian state from his father Kim Jong-il in late 2011, the data showed.
The number of missiles the young leader has launched over the last five years nearly doubled compared to the 16 fired during his father’s 18-year rule.
Ministry and military observers believe that Kim has apparently spent at least 110 billion won on the launches, based on the estimated prices of each missile.
The price of a Scud or a Rodong is estimated at about 1 billion won to 2 billion won each, while a Musudan is estimated to cost about 3 billion won to 6 billion won. The price of an SLBM, which is still under development, is estimated at about 5 billion won to 10 billion won.
The ministry said the total expenses for the missile launches would have exceeded 110 billion won if labor costs had been added.
If the two nuclear tests conducted under the younger Kim’s leadership are taken into consideration, the estimated expenses would be in the hundreds of billions of won, the ministry added. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but like I have always said; anyone that is pro-engagement with North Korea also must support Kim Jong-un’s nuclear and missile programs because the two are not exclusive of each other.
Considering how China is now angered at the ROK for allowing the THAAD deployment they could retaliate by not allowing this teenage defector to leave the embassy:
A North Korean teenager sought refuge in the South Korean consulate in Hong Kong after attending an international math competition, local newspapers in Hong Kong reported Thursday.
The 18-year-old boy was in Hong Kong to attend the International Mathematical Olympiad at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, the newspaper Ming Pao reported. According to the report, the student was one of the six North Korean official delegates of the competition.
According to South China Morning Post, all six members of the North’s team and the two supervisors attended the closing dinner of the competition on July 15.
At some point after that, the report said quoting a diplomatic source, one of the students vanished and later sought refuge at the South Korean diplomatic mission.
The mission asked for strengthened security protection from the Hong Kong government, fearing a possible North Korean retaliation, and armed anti-terrorist troops are now guarding the consulate around the clock.
“The South Korean government requested the Hong Kong government to allow the student’s departure, but no definite answer was given,” a Hong Kong source told the JoongAng Ilbo. “The Chinese Foreign Ministry is apparently reviewing the issue.” [Joong Ang Ilbo]
You can read more at the link, but it is going to be very interesting to see how this turns out.
It looks like the Kim regime is setting conditions for their next provocation cycle next month during the US-ROK Ulchi Freedom Guardian exercise:
North Korea’s top diplomat for U.S. affairs told The Associated Press on Thursday that Washington “crossed the red line” and effectively declared war by putting leader Kim Jong Un on its list of sanctioned individuals, and said a vicious showdown could erupt if the U.S. and South Korea hold annual war games as planned next month.
Han Song Ryol, director-general of the U.S. affairs department at the North’s Foreign Ministry, said in an interview that recent U.S. actions have put the situation on the Korean Peninsula on a war footing.
The United States and South Korea regularly conduct joint military exercises south of the Demilitarized Zone, and Pyongyang typically responds to them with tough talk and threats of retaliation.
Han said North Korea believes the nature of the maneuvers has become openly aggressive because they reportedly now include training designed to prepare troops for the invasion of the North’s capital and “decapitation strikes” aimed at killing its top leadership.
Han says designating Kim himself for sanctions was the final straw. [Associated Press]
This is the first time I have seen the North Koreans try and spread propaganda messages via a river:
In this photo provided by the South Korean military on July, 27, 2016, vinyl bags carrying North Korean leaflets are displayed on a table. (Yonhap)
South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said Wednesday they found strongly worded North Korean leaflets in the Han River, the first distribution of such propaganda materials via a waterway.
On July 22, the Korean military collected scores of tightly air-filled vinyl bags carrying North Korean leaflets which contained threats of the North’s possible attacks on the South using the intermediate-range Musudan ballistic missile, a spokesman for Seoul’s JCS said in a press briefing.
“North Korea intentionally floated the leaflets toward the mouth of the Han River and were picked up by guard troops near Gimpo,” the spokesman said, citing an analysis by relevant government officials. The river flows through Seoul, South Korea’s capital city, although sources said it is not clear where the leaflets originated from. [Yonhap]
