North Korea's "Flowers of the Sky" women fighter pilots mobbed by adoring officials at Wonsan air show #DPRK pic.twitter.com/tzzP8HAInv
— Giles Hewitt (@gileshewitt) September 30, 2016
Better a financial crisis in China than a nuclear war in Korea. https://t.co/9PIxjuQZ5W
— Joshua Stanton (@freekorea_us) October 1, 2016
That is what Mr. Richard Haas from the Council on Foreign Relations believes should be considered:
The U.S. should try to dispel China’s concern about potential negative effects on its national interests in the event of North Korea’s collapse in order to win Beijing’s help in pressuring Pyongyang to give up its nuclear programs, a U.S. expert said.
Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, also said in an article that should such persuasive efforts toward China fail, the U.S. would have to either live with a North Korea capable of striking the U.S. with nuclear missiles or launch military action to take out the North’s nuclear and missile facilities. (…….)
“One would be to live with a North Korea in possession of missiles that could bring nuclear bombs to U.S. soil,” he said. “The policy would become one of defense (deploying additional anti-missile systems) and deterrence, with North Korea understanding that any use or spread of nuclear weapons would lead to the end of the regime and possibly nuclear retaliation.”
The second option would be a military attack on the North’s nuclear and missile capabilities, he said.
“The danger is that such a strike might not achieve all of its objectives and trigger either a conventional military attack on South Korea (where nearly 30,000 US troops are based) or even a nuclear attack from the North,” he said.
The third option would be to launch such a conventional military attack only if intelligence showed North Korea was putting its missiles on alert and readying them for imminent use, but the danger in that option is the intelligence might not be sufficiently clear or come early enough, he said. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but I don’t believe we are at that point yet considering that other options such as aggressively sanctioning Chinese banks and businesses have not be used yet. Allowing South Korea to develop their own nuclear deterrent would be preferable to a preemptive military strike that could ignite a second Korean War.
Further Reading:
https://www.rokdrop.net/2016/09/nearly-60-of-south-koreans-want-country-to-develop-nuclear-weapons/
NK maths prodigy defector reportedly left Hong Kong for SKorea over the weekend after only a two month stay. https://t.co/aL0E2pE0LW
— Sokeel Park (@Sokeel) September 28, 2016
Over at One Free Korea there is a good posting up about how the Senate in a bi-partisan manner recently grilled State Department officials about the lack of sanctions against Chinese banks:
I’ve never worked in the Senate, so I wouldn’t know if that’s standard procedure there, but past hearings I’ve watched didn’t run this well. Gardner himself was in complete command of both the material and the room, and gave every appearance of being a man with limitless potential. Indeed, all of the senators were well-prepared. All, regardless of their party or tribal affiliations, asked good or excellent questions.
In the end, however, no one can hurt you more than the people who love you. At 58:17, Senator Menendez began questioning Fried by arguing for secondary sanctions against Chinese banks. He then embarked on a well-prepared, determined, and lawyerly cross-examination of Fried about this. Pressured by Menendez’s questioning and clearly unsure of his material, Fried told Menendez that Dandong Hongxiang was a bank (not true). I don’t think Fried was lying, but he didn’t have command of the facts, and when he got out of his depth, he swam into a rip current. Mendendez pinned Fried down on his answer. Then, when his time expired, he went back and pulled Treasury’s announcement, probably talked to his staff, and confirmed that this wasn’t true. At 1:35:30, Menendez returned, rearmed. This, ladies and gentlemen, is what it’s like to have a bad day in the United States Senate. [One Free Korea]
You can read the transcript at the link of the bad day Mr. Daniel Fried, the State Department’s Coordinator for Sanctions Policy had being grilled by the Senate. The fact that he did not immediately know that the Treasury Department has not sanctioned any Chinese banks is worrisome.
NK nuclear tests: 'There's always the risk conflict might break out by accident', https://t.co/f4OMbehngh via @talkRADIO
— John Nilsson-Wright (@JNilssonWright) September 26, 2016
This defection is actually pretty unusual since it is only the third defection of a North Korean soldiers in the past four years:
A North Korean soldier defected Thursday across the Demilitarized Zone dividing the peninsula, the South Korean military said.
The soldier crossed the military demarcation line at about 10 a.m. inside the 2.5-mile-wide DMZ, a military official confirmed, speaking on condition of anonymity according to department policy.
The military is investigating how and why the soldier defected, the official said, adding he could not provide more details.
South Korea has reported an increasing number of defectors from the North this year as the isolated country’s ruler Kim Jong Un seeks to tighten his grip on power. [Stars & Stripes]
You can read more at the link.
What I am wondering is why were these people allowed to operate in the U.K. in the first place considering North Korea’s long history of using insurance fraud to bring in foreign currency:
Britain has effectively deported two London-based officials of North Korea’s state insurance firm by refusing to renew their visas after the firm was slapped with sanctions in the wake of Pyongyang’s January nuclear test, a diplomatic source said.
In April, Britain blacklisted the North’s Korea National Insurance Corp. and its London office in line with European Union sanctions imposed after the North’s fourth nuclear test in January and a long-range rocket launch in February.
“It’s part of implementation of sanctions to deny visas for those working for a sanctioned entity,” a source said. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link.
Further reading:
https://www.rokdrop.net/2010/03/north-korea-reportedly-has-4-billion-in-european-banks/
If Donald Trump does become President I think he will find out the same frustrations many other people have had in regards to trying to get China to fix North Korea:
Donald Trump said during the first presidential debate that “China should go into North Korea” to halt that country’s nuclear program and control its unpredictable leader, Kim Jong Un.
“China should solve the problem for us,” Trump said in Monday night’s debate. “China is totally powerful when it comes to North Korea.”
While China does hold a lot of sway over its belligerent communist neighbor and ally, what the Republican candidate said is very unlikely to happen. Here’s why:
• China is North Korea’s protector, chief trading partner and economic lifeline.Although China condemned North Korea’s latest nuclear weapons test on Sept. 9 — and agreed to sanctions in response to a test in January — Beijing shows no signs that it will actually crack down on North Korea. [USA Today]
You can read the rest at the link, but from the Chinese perspective it makes perfect sense to back North Korea. There would have to be major strategic shifts in the region for China to remove the Kim regime.
I guess this makes sense considering how many soldiers are reportedly missing and the damage done to border checkpoints:
North Korea has hastily dispatched agents from its State Security Ministry to flood-damaged areas bordering China to block mass defections of residents there, a U.S. broadcaster, monitored in Seoul, reported Monday.
This summer, the North’s northeastern provinces adjacent to China were devastated by heavy rains accompanied by Typhoon Lionrock. The United Nations estimates that 138 North Koreans were killed and 400 others are missing in the country’s worst flooding in its history, with about 20,000 houses destroyed.
The North Korean authorities employed the step as defections have become easier as the heavy rains wrecked lots of border facilities, such as guard posts, and barbed-wire fences, the Radio Free Asia (RFA) said, citing a source in the North. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link.
