Tag: North Korea

It looks like the Kim regime is probing to see what free goodies it can get from the US for little to nothing in return:

A ranking North Korean official arrived in Beijing on Tuesday before possibly traveling to Malaysia for informal talks with former U.S. officials or experts, a Japanese news report said.

North Korea’s deputy foreign minister Han Song-ryol was seen at Beijing’s international airport, according to Kyodo News.

“He could be set to meet former U.S. officials or experts on North Korean issues, and the discussions will most likely be held completely behind-the-scenes under the informal, unofficial track II format,” Kyodo reported, citing the source.

An official at Seoul’s foreign ministry said he cannot confirm anything at the moment.

Han’s possible trip to Malaysia, if confirmed, comes after North Korea conducted its fifth and most powerful nuclear test in September, just eight months after its previous nuke test.

The U.N. Security Council (UNSC) is working on a fresh sanctions resolution to punish Pyongyang for its latest nuclear provocation. In March, the UNSC slapped tougher sanctions on the North for its nuclear and long-range rocket launches early in the year.

Until recently, Han served as director-general handling U.S. affairs at North Korea’s foreign ministry, the report said.

Han met with a private U.S. delegation, which made a rare visit to North Korea in late September, the New York Times reported on Oct. 9.

During the Sept. 24-27 visit, the delegation discussed a U.S. student detained in the communist nation, recovering the remains of American soldiers killed in the 1950-53 Korean War and possible flood assistance for the North, it said.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but I would be surprised if anything comes out of this considering the upcoming change in the Presidency.  Would President Obama want his legacy to be a last minute deal with the North Koreans that they would inevitably violate?

Under pressure: Can Beijing really change Pyongyang’s mind? https://t.co/yf50i22wJK

— NK NEWS (@nknewsorg) October 18, 2016

If I was the Prime Minister of the UK, I would send more forces to participate in the exercise with the ROK in response to such threats:

North Korea has said it is “close to the brink of war” with its southern neighbor – and Britain has been warned to stay out of the fight.

The regime’s foreign affairs representative for northern Europe, Pak Yun Sik, was speaking after the UK announced it would take part in joint military drills with South Korea and the US.

The war games will be played out in November as a training exercise in case there is ever a need for real thing in the region.

Mr Pak said angrily: “The situation on the Korean peninsula is close to the brink of war because of endless military exercises by American and South Korean forces targeting us.

“Now, Britain has decided to send its Typhoon fighter jets to take part in joint US-South Korean military drills, in the south of Korea, from 4 to 10 November.

“This is a hostile act, openly joining the US and South Korean forces in moves for a new war against us.

“Britain claims that this military exercise is not targeting us, but the US and South Korea openly say that these military exercises are aimed at launching a strike against our military facilities and our command structure.”  [Fox News]

Further Reading:

https://www.rokdrop.net/2016/10/united-kingdom-to-take-part-in-invincible-shield-exercise-with-us-and-rok/

I wonder what the Chinese response would be to someone threatening to launch a preemptive nuclear attack on them?:

North Korea is prepared to launch the big one.

A top North Korean official is warning that the isolated nation is ready to launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike on the US if necessary, NBC News reported Monday.

“The US has nuclear weapons off our coast, targeting our country, our capital and our dear leader, Kim Jong Un,” Lee Yong Pil, director of the Foreign Ministry’s Institute for American Studies, told NBC News. “We will not step back as long as there’s a nuclear threat to us from the United States.”

Lee said the US does not have a “monopoly” on pre-emptive nuclear strikes.

“If we see that the US would do it to us, we would do it first,” Lee said. “We have the technology.”

North Korea may also conduct more nuclear tests, including a “sixth, a seventh or an eighth” trial, Lee said, adding that the hardened stance comes amid “increasingly aggressive” drills by the US and South Korea.  [New York Post]

You can read more at the link.

North Korea’s State Merited Chorus performs in Pyongyang in a celebration of the 71st founding anniversary of the country’s ruling Workers’ Party of Korea in this photo released by the North’s Korean Central News Agency on Oct. 12, 2016.  (Yonhap)

For people familiar with the Roh Moo-hyun years of the Korean government, this latest revelation should not come as any surprise:

Presidential candidate Moon Jae-in has been embroiled in a controversy over an ex-foreign minister’s claim that he supported a recommendation to seek Pyongyang’s opinion on a 2007 U.N. resolution on North Korea’s human rights situation ahead of a vote.

Song Min-soon, who served as foreign minister for President Roh Moo-hyun, said in his memoir published last week that South Korea abstained from the vote after listening to Pyongyang’s opposition.

Song claimed that the proposal to seek the North’s opinion was backed by Moon, then Roh’s presidential chief of staff, amid divided opinions among Cabinet members.

The recently surfaced claim soon instigated political sparring between rival parties. The ruling Saenuri Party called for an investigation to get to the bottom of the issue, accusing Moon of having virtually been “in league with” the North. [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.

N. Korea lambasts Russel for his 'immediately die' comment https://t.co/7zgWzH0R6F

— Yonhap News Agency (@YonhapNews) October 15, 2016

North Korea over the weekend tried to conduct a seventh Musudan missile test and it blew up shortly after launch:

North Korea test-fired an intermediate-range missile Saturday in its latest military provocation, but the missile exploded seconds after its launch, the South Korean military reported Sunday.

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff reported that the North launched what appeared to have been a Musudan missile from the northwestern city of Kusong in North Pyongan Province at around 12:33 p.m. Saturday. A Musudan missile has a range between 3,000 and 4,000 kilometers (1,864 and 2,485 miles), long enough to reach U.S. military installations in Guam.

“The missile exploded in the air just seconds after launch. We are now looking into the cause of the failure,” said a military official on condition of anonymity. The official said South Korea and the United States had closely cooperated in analyzing Saturday’s failed launch and assessed it was a Musudan missile launch. The official added that South Korea’s military analyzed the failed launch by sharing surveillance data provided by the U.S. military obtained by its intelligence assets including satellites.   [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link, but this failure means that in seven test launches they have had one successful firing of the Musudan missile.

MoU confirms nine or possibly more S.Koreans will be charged for making illegal contact with N.Koreans https://t.co/Q6PIcnsqOh pic.twitter.com/xYfeY4rxr1

— NK NEWS (@nknewsorg) October 13, 2016

I agree with the concept that a “grand bargain” with China is the only way to end the Kim regime’s nuclear weapons program, but I don’t think what the professor is recommending that the US offers in return would cause the Chinese to turn on the Kim regime:

The United States should seek a grand bargain with China that commits Beijing to use its leverage over North Korea to end its nuclear program in exchange for American concessions like the scrapping of a decision to deploy the THAAD missile defense system in South Korea, a U.S. expert said Wednesday.

Amitai Etzioni, a George Washington University professor, made the point in an article in the National Interest, stressing that the “greatest threat” to U.S. security that the new American president will have to confront is North Korea.

The professor said that efforts to simply “urge” or “shame” China into acting won’t work.

“The costs to China if it were to move to rein in North Korea are considerable. China views living with a Communist-ruled nuclear-armed state on its border as preferable to the chaos of its collapse,” he said.

Instead, China should be offered a deal based on “differential salience,” which means that each side should get what’s important to its national interests from the other side by giving up what’s less important.

“China might well have a high interest in gaining assurances that if the North Korean regime collapses and the two Koreas are unified, the United States will not move its troops to the border with China,” the professor said. “This is a no- or low-cost proposition for the United States, because once the North Korean nuke program folds or the regime collapses, the United States should be quite content not to move its troops north.”

He also said that the U.S. could offer not to deploy THAAD because once the North’s s nuclear missile program is no longer an acute threat, the United States should be quite willing not to place THAAD in South Korea.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but for the Chinese to turn on the Kim regime I think they would want something extremely significant in return that meets their security interests.  North Korea is a buffer state for them that can also be counted on as a third actor if conflict with Taiwan for example was to occur to tie up US forces.  This is a huge strategic benefit from the Chinese perspective.  That is why I think the complete removal of USFK from the peninsula is the only thing that would get the Chinese attention.

From the Chinese perspective if the Kim regime is removed and the Koreas are united what other reason would the US have to keep troops in Korea other than to threaten China?  I don’t think the Chinese would even go for this proposal and would push for more US concessions in regards to Taiwan to really strike a deal, but I think any proposal would have to include the removal of US troops from Korea.

Maybe I am wrong, does anyone else have any differing opinions on what it would take to strike a deal with China?