North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspects a newly built bag factory in Pyongyang, his first public outing of the new year, in this photo released by the North’s ruling party organ Rodong Sinmun on Jan. 5, 2017. The plant is capable of producing over 242,000 school bags and 60,000 ordinary bags a year, according to the paper. (Yonhap)
This is what the North Korea experts are saying about President-Elect Trump’s emphasis on pressuring China to do something about the North Korean nuclear and missile programs:
“Trump will soon learn that he can’t just tweet away North Korea’s ICBM and nuclear programs,” said Robert Manning, a senior analyst at the Atlantic Council. “He is flat out wrong about North Korea not developing a nuclear weapon that can reach the U.S. The only question is when. But it is likely to acquire that capability during his first term.”
Since the election, Trump has repeatedly criticized China for not helping with the North, even raising questions why the U.S. should stick to the “one-China” policy of diplomatically recognizing only Beijing, not Taiwan, when China is uncooperative over the North.
That’s in line with Trump’s campaign remarks that the North is China’s problem to fix.
Experts, however, were skeptical about the idea of pressuring China to resolve the problem.
“He has unrealistic expectations about China’s ability and/or willingness to achieve outcomes in regard to North Korea. He has equally wrong and outdated assumptions about U.S. leverage with China and will learn that through making really dumb mistakes in his first year,” Manning said.
“Trump has already shown his profound ignorance by threatening to discard the One-China policy that is the foundation of US-China relations, threatening to impose 45% tariffs on Chines goods — and then asking Beijing to solve his North Korea problem. That is complete incoherence — and he hasn’t even taken office yet,” he said.
The expert noted that there is little the U.S. can do about the problem in the near term that does not risk a war, “other than strengthening deterrence, imposing tough sanctions that remove North Korea from the international financial system.”
Scott Snyder, a senior expert on Korea at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that Trump’s tweets show he thinks North Korea is a priority issue that is closely linked to China.
“For Trump, the issue is strongly connected to relations with China. However, at present there are few, if any, formal diplomatic channels by which Trump can communicate with the Chinese leadership, and the Chinese foreign ministry appears to have rejected diplomacy by tweet,” Snyder said.
“In addition, Trump appears to have rejected the idea that North Korea’s development of a preemptive strike capability will happen or that it provides Pyongyang with a basis for making demands such as an end annual US-ROK military exercises,” he said.
Joel Wit, a former State Department negotiator with North Korea and currently editor of the website 38 North specializing in North Korean affairs, expressed strong skepticism about Trump’s idea of resolving the problem by pressuring China.
“If he pursues the avenue of trying to get China to solve this problem for the U.S., then he is going to fail just like the Obama administration,” he said. [Yonhap]
Talk is growing in the United States of the possibility of using military strikes to take out North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities after the North’s leader, Kim Jong-un, threatened he’s close to testing a long-range missile apparently capable of hitting the U.S.
Kim said in his New Year’s Day address that the communist nation has reached the final stage of preparations to test-launch an intercontinental ballistic missile. The remark was seen as a thinly veiled threat that Pyongyang is close to developing a nuclear-tipped missile capable of striking the continental U.S.
The threat appears to have stoked genuine fears of security among Americans, with reporters bombarding the Defense Department with questions of what the U.S. is going to do about the North’s missile, including whether it’s going to shoot it down or even launch a preemptive strike before it’s fired.
It also prompted President-elect Donald Trump to send a tweet: “North Korea just stated that it is in the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the U.S. It won’t happen!”
On Wednesday, a private intelligence analysis firm, Stratfor, even laid out a list of potential targets in North Korea, including the Yongbyon nuclear complex, home to the North’s plutonium-producing reactor and reprocessing facility.
“When considering an attack on North Korea, there are two broad categories of strikes to deliberate. The first is a minimalist strike, specifically focused on dismantling the North’s nuclear weapons program. In this scenario, the United States would engage North Korean nuclear objectives only,” Stratfor said in an analysis piece carried by MarketWatch and, titled, “How the U.S. could derail North Korea’s nuclear program by force.”
“By not launching strikes on other North Korean targets, Washington leaves the door open, if only slightly, for de-escalation if Pyongyang can be convinced that the strike is not part of a regime change operation. What benefits Pentagon planners in this scenario is that a limited strike requires less resources and preparation, enhancing the element of surprise,”
Potential targets in the minimalist strike include the Yongbyon complex, including the 5-megawatt nuclear reactor and the reprocessing plant, as well as the Pyongsan uranium mine that provides fuel for the reactor, and the Pyongsong nuclear research and development facility, known as the North’s “Silicon Valley,” Stratfor said.
“These facilities form the heart of North Korean nuclear production infrastructure. If they were destroyed or disabled, the North Korean nuclear production network would be crippled, set back years at least,” it said. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but what anyone thinking of advocating for a limited strike on North Korea needs to answer is what is the response then when the Kim regime retaliates and launches a limited artillery strike on Seoul? Can you imagine what the reaction will be from the Korean public will be especially if a left-wing President is elected this year?
I guess we will see in the coming months what President-elect Trump means when he says the North Korean’s ICMB test “won’t happen”:
President-elect Donald Trump contended Monday night that North Korea would not be able to develop a nuclear weapon capable of reaching the United States, despite its claims to the contrary, and berated China for not doing enough to help stop the rogue state’s weapons program.
Trump’s declarations on Twitter came after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said in a New Year’s address that the country had reached the “final stages” of testing its first intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the United States.
It looks like Kim Jong-un is setting conditions for a Key Resolve fireworks show:
North Korea is likely to conduct missile provocations in the first half as the country announced that its preparation for test-firing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) has entered the final stage, experts said Sunday.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in his New Year’s message claimed the country is in the final stage of preparing to launch an ICBM, heralding the country’s intent to jack up tensions in coming months.
Pyongyang is known to be developing a road-mobile ICBM, known as KN-08, which has a range of more than 13,000 kilometers and may be capable of flying as far as the U.S. mainland. But the North has never conducted an actual test of that missile.
Experts said that North Korea will focus on advancing its nuclear and missile capability in the new year, raising the possibility it would be engage in more powerful provocations around its key anniversaries in the first half. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but for those unfamiliar with Key Resolve it is an annual US-ROK military exercise that happens every March that the North Koreans typically commit some kind of provocation in response to.
N.K. leader Kim Jong-un (4th from L) attends an art performance in Pyongyang for the participants of the conference of chairpersons of ruling party primary committees in this photo published by the North’s Korean Central News Agency on Dec. 29, 2016. It was Kim’s first appearance in 14 months to the performance by the Moranbong Band, an all girl band that he founded, who shared the stage with the State Merited Chorus. The Moranbong Band has been a source of interest for its lack for visibility, its last reported performance being in May this year. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
The cover of a North Korean calendar for 2017, obtained by Yonhap News Agency in Shenyang, China, on Dec. 29, 2016, features pilots and flight attendants of its flag carrier Air Koryo in what observers describe as a bold move considering that previous calendars mostly carried bland photos of scenic views and cultural sites. Next year’s calendar has photos of cabin crew at work during flights, such as giving safety instructions and pouring beer. The calendar marks as holidays the birthdays of the country’s former leaders but not that of current leader Kim Jong-un. (Yonhap)
