Tag: North Korea

"Jang Sung-taek was too close to China for Kim Jong-un’s taste; the same may have been true of Kim Jong-nam." https://t.co/pM2G8GX1QD #DPRK pic.twitter.com/3LcAB6FG8U

— KEI (@KoreaEconInst) February 14, 2017

Kim Jong-un was finally able to kill his older brother and he had his agents resort to using poison needles again.  Long time readers may remember that the Kim regime tried to kill ROK Drop favorite Park Sang-hak with a poison needle as well:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s half-brother has been killed in Malaysia, a government source said Tuesday.

Kim Jong-nam was assassinated on Monday in Malaysia, the source said without revealing details.

Cable TV broadcaster TV Chosun reported that Kim was killed at an airport in Malaysia after being attacked by two unidentified female agents with “poisoned needles.” The suspects fled the scene and Malaysian police suspected North Korea was behind the killing.

If confirmed, Kim’s case would mark the most high-profile death under the Kim Jong-un regime since the execution of Jang Song-thaek in December 2013, the once-powerful uncle of the current leader.

Kim Jong-nam is the eldest son of late former leader Kim Jong-il and is living in a foreign country without holding any official title. He was born from his father’s nonmarital relationship with Sung Hae-rim, a South Korean-born actress who died in Moscow.  [Yonhap]

For those that don’t know it has long been believed that Kim Jong-nam was China’s preferred back up plan if the North Korean regime was to collapse.  With Kim Jong-nam now dead the only Kim’s left to rule North Korea are Kim Jong-nam’s other brother Kim Jong-chul who is considered too lady like to rule the country and his sister Kim Yo-jong is female and thus not a threat either.  Plus both of them are part of his close inner circle where he can closely watch them.

That left Kim Jong-nam as a possible threat for someone looking to replace Kim Jong-un with another Kim and he is now gone.  The only other possible replacement to Kim Jong-un that is not under his control is Kim Jong-nam’s son, Kim Han-sol who has been living in Europe.  I would imagine he is some deep hiding right now after seeing his father executed because he could be next.

This is a pretty significant development because a solid fuel missile on a mobile launcher would allow the North Koreans to launch with little to no indications or warning against targets in Japan with this missile:

South Korea’s military said Monday that North Korea appears to have employed technologies used in submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) to develop a new type of intermediate-range rocket, citing its analysis of a launch test carried out by Pyongyang a day earlier.

“North Korean leader Kim Jong-un likely ordered the task of developing a surface-to-surface Pukguksong-2 missile based on the successful SLBM test carried out in August. We have reached an assessment that the North is in the process of developing a ballistic missile with a greatly extended strike range,” an official from Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said.

Pyongyang called the new missile Pukguksong-2. The SLBM launched in August carried the name Pukguksong-1, a name which translates as the “North Star.”

The remark came after the JCS initially identified the type of missile fired from Bangyon air base in the western province of North Pyongan Province at 7:55 a.m. as a medium-range Rodong or modified Rodong, and then changed their assessment to a modified Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM).

The missile reached a height of 550 kilometers after being fired at a high angle and flew about 500 km before splashing down into the East Sea.

As the launch was conducted in a “lofted” style, it put the missile into a high trajectory rather than a lower one that would allow it to fly much farther.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

Thae Yong Ho: unrealistic to preemptively strike NK hoping no consequence when 25k US troops in SK as cannon fodderhttps://t.co/7Vtq3b4Aps

— Noon in Korea (@NoonInKorea) February 11, 2017

This photo shows a satellite image seen on Google Earth of the Banghyon air base in North Korea’s North Pyongyan Province from which Pyongyang fired a ballistic missile presumed to be a medium-range Rodong or a modified version of it on Feb. 12, 2017. (Yonhap)

I think it is more than coincidence that the Kim regime decided to interfere with President Trump’s and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s golf game this weekend by firing off this missile:

Pyongyang fired a missile into waters off its eastern coast Sunday morning, the first test-firing by North Korea this year and since U.S. President Donald Trump took office, according to the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Launched from Banghyon Air Base in North Pyongyan Province at 7:55 a.m., the missile reached an altitude of about 550 kilometers (342 miles) and flew 500 kilometers before splashing into the East Sea, both figures which indicate that it wasn’t an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), said an official from the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

It appears that the missile was a Rodong medium-range class meant to target Japan, according to another South Korean military source who spoke on the condition of anonymity.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

The Rodong or Nodong missile is a missile developed primarily to target Japan which is further evidence that the Trump-Abe meeting this week is why they fired the missile when they did.  With that said it is important to keep things in perspective.  The Nodong is a missile they have fired plenty of times in the past and this test firing was on a known test trajectory that safely impacted in the Sea of Japan.  If it wasn’t for the fact that it was North Korea test firing this missile most people would not care.

Here is how President Trump and Prime Minister Abe responded during a hastily called news conference at Trump’s golf club:

United States President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe have condemned North Korea’s latest missile launch.

Trump and Abe issued their statements on the North’s surprise ballistic missile launch on Sunday during an unscheduled joint news conference in Florida.

Abe said that North Korea’s most recent missile launch is absolutely intolerable, urging the North to fully comply with relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions.

Trump said that he wants everybody to understand and fully know that the United States stands behind its great ally Japan 100 percent.  [KBS World]

Here is how the ROK has responded:

The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) denounced North Korea for its latest ballistic missile launch.

Following North Korea’s missile launch Sunday morning, the JCS issued a statement, calling the military action a “grave threat to peace and safety of South Korea and the international community.”

The JCS warned that the Kim Jong-un regime will only see its collapse unless it wakes up from the delusion of nuclear and missile provocations.

The JCS said the missile launch is unacceptable and the military is prepared to immediately respond to any North Korean provocation.

The South Korean military stressed that the missile launch came in violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions.  [KBS World]

I think the response was handled well by everyone because on the scale of North Korean provocations this is very low and people should not over react to it in my opinion which so far no one is appearing to do.

I find it hard to feel sorry for this businesses that knew what they were getting themselves into in order to take advantage of near slave labor to make profits.  Their gamble ultimately did not pay off so why should the South Korean taxpayer be on the hook to completely bail them out of their losses?:

It will have been a year since they were forced to leave their workplace in North Korea’s border town of Kaesong this week, but nearly half of the firms that were once celebrated as symbols of reconciliation with the communist North are now struggling just to stay alive.

The 124 South Korean firms were told by their own government to leave the joint industrial complex a year ago Friday.

The unexpected shutdown of the joint complex followed a series of military provocations from the North that included a nuclear test in January 2016.  (……..)

He said the total damage suffered by all 124 firms came to at least 1.5 trillion won (US$1.31 billion).

The amount includes some 840 billion won in fixed and floating assets left behind in Kaesong, such as equipment and raw materials, as well as 150 billion won the firms had to pay in penalties or damage to their contractors and buyers for breached contracts.

Their combined losses stemming from reduced sales also came to 314.7 billion won in 2016 alone, the committee said.

The government, however, has compensated them 483.8 billion won, only 32 percent of the damage suffered by the firms, it added.

“The government has only provided some 359 billion won in compensation for investment assets in Kaesong and 125 billion won for floating assets, but refuses to provide any support for loss of business, the penalties the firms had to pay or any other damage stemming from the shutdown,” an official from the emergency committee said, speaking on the condition of anonymity.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

The State Department’s travel warning seems pretty pointless to me.  Anyone willing to go to North Korea has to have knowledge of all the Americans detained over the past decade and still people keep going there:

The U.S. State Department on Tuesday issued a new warning against traveling to North Korea.

“The Department of State strongly urges U.S. citizens to avoid all travel to North Korea/the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) due to the serious risk of arrest and long-term detention under North Korea’s system of law enforcement,” the department said.

“This system imposes unduly harsh sentences for actions that would not be considered crimes in the United States and threatens U.S. citizen detainees with being treated in accordance with ‘wartime law of the DPRK,'” it said.

At least 14 U.S. citizens have been detained in North Korea in the past 10 years, it said.  [Yonhap]

Of those 14 citizens detained all of them did something stupid to get detained on top of being stupid enough to travel to North Korea in the first place.

A ROK Drop favorite Nicholas Eberstadt has an article published on the Fox News website that discusses his viewpoint in regards to what to do about the North Korean nuclear program:

As bizarre and satire-prone as the North Korean regime’s buffoonish-looking Kim Jong-Un and his servile courtiers may be, Pyongyang’s leadership is neither irrational nor suicidal. The rationale behind this confrontation would actually be to achieve a maximum of strategic gain with a minimum of actual destruction and violence.

The basic idea is to force Washington to blink in an escalating crisis on the Korean peninsula—a crisis of Pyongyang’s own making, at a time and under circumstances of Pyongyang’s own choosing.

If America hesitates or climbs down in the face of a future, stage-managed exercise in tactical North Korean aggression, Pyongyang will have undermined the credibility of the U.S. military alliance with South Korea.

The formal end to that alliance, and the exit of American troops from Korea, could quickly follow.  (…….)

Likewise more and better missile defense: the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems against ballistic missiles that the U.S. has offered  South Korea and Japan is a good step, and so is moving forward in earnest on missile defense for the USA.

As for weakening the DPRK’s military economy, the foundation for all its offensive capabilities: we should put Pyongyang back on the State Sponsors of Terrorism list—it never should have been removed in 2008. Sanctions with genuine bite should be implemented—the dysfunctional DPRK economy is uniquely susceptible to them.

The United Nations has already gotten a comprehensive report on North Korea’s grisly human rights record from its Commission of Inquiry on the situation in the DPRK: let governments of conscience now seek international criminal accountability for North Korea’s leadership.

Then there is the China question. It is by no means impossible for America and her allies to pressure the DPRK if China does not cooperate. That said: it is time for Beijing to pay a penalty for its support for the most odious regime on the planet today. [Fox News]

You can read more at the link, but I fully agree with Eberstadt’s statement that people need to understand that the Kim regime is not irrational or suicidal.  From their perspective everything they have been doing makes sense.  A nuclear deterrent ensures regime survival; their provocation cycles have historically been successful in getting concessions from South Korea and the US.  Why stop now?

I mostly agree with Victor Cha’s assessment, however I think they will conduct short-range missile firings during the Key Resolve exercise in March like they have historically done in the past.  Larger provocations such as an ICBM or nuclear test I think will be done post-election in order to avoid helping elect a ROK conservative.  Plus by the end of the ROK election period, North Korea will have a better idea of what the Trump administration’s policy toward North Korea will be:

North Korea is exercising restraint from nuclear and missile tests to avoid galvanizing conservatives in South Korea ahead of a presidential election, and is certain to resume provocations once the leadership crisis in the South is resolved, a top U.S. expert on Korea said Tuesday.

The assessment from Victor Cha, a Georgetown University professor and Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, breaks with more common perceptions that Pyongyang is holding off on action until the new administration of U.S. President Donald Trump puts together its North Korea policy.

“Pyongyang carried out two (failed) medium-range ballistic missiles tests prior to President Trump’s election on October 15 and 20, 2016. The only reason they have not followed the election with an action, we believe, is because of the domestic political crisis in South Korea,” Cha said during a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing, referring to the North’s failed Musudan missile launches.

“That is, President Park Geun-hye’s political downfall and the potential for a progressive, pro-DPRK government coming to power in the South has complicated Pyongyang’s calculations as they do not want to take actions that might create ballast for the conservatives,” he said. “However, once this crisis of leadership in the South is resolved (or even before then), ballistic missile and nuclear tests are sure to follow.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.