I think this should end the pipe dream anyone may still be holding that China would put real pressure on the Kim regime to end their nuclear and missile programs:
Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said it was not his country that was threatening North Korea and the answer to the problems did not lie with Beijing.
Mr Geng said: “Recently, certain people, talking about the Korean peninsula nuclear issue, have been exaggerating and giving prominence to the so-called ‘China responsibility theory’.
“I think this either shows lack of a full, correct knowledge of the issue, or there are ulterior motives for it, trying to shift responsibility.”
The spokesman reiterated that China had been making a concerted effort to play a constructive role in the conflict.
He added: “Asking others to do work, but doing nothing themselves is not OK. Being stabbed in the back is really not OK.” [Daily Express]
This is another example of the momentum building towards a freeze deal with North Korea:
A pro-North Korean newspaper in Japan said Tuesday that President Moon Jae-in should not expect a positive response from Pyongyang to his latest reconciliatory proposal, as Seoul is still not giving up its submission to the United States.
The Chosun Sinbo also called on South Korea to end its joint annual military exercises with the U.S. if it hopes to prove its willingness to improve ties.
Moon unveiled a broad vision for bringing peace to the Korean Peninsula during his speech in Berlin last Thursday, two days after the North test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
“If the proposal is based on South Korea’s subversion to the U.S. and hostility toward the North, Seoul cannot expect Pyongyang’s positive response,” the newspaper said.
The paper serves as an unofficial mouthpiece for Pyongyang. North Korea’s state media has yet to unveil its official response to Moon’s proposal. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but calls from the North Korean media to end US-ROK military drills will be ceased upon by the freeze deal advocates as a sign that the Kim regime is acceptable to such a deal. The Chinese and Russians have also come out in support of suspending US-ROK military drills in return for North Korea suspending their missile and nuclear programs.
John Wolfsthal a nuclear policy expert writes in Foreign Policy about how the United States needs to accept North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and learn to live it like we have China and other countries:
At the same time, we have to accept that the game has changed. The dangers of a military conflict between the United States and North Korea have global implications. This means the United States and North Korea must begin immediate talks to avoid such conflicts, and to communicate directly to North Korea’s leaders exactly what actions would require a direct U.S. military response. We have had to do this as other states gained nuclear capabilities, because failure to do so left too much to chance. This is no concession, but self-preservation.
This list is not exhaustive, but the president, his cabinet and advisors, and our leaders in Congress need to begin the long-overdue conversation about what North Korean actions we seek to prevent. Unlike Trump’s tweets, our conclusions need to be specific and we need to back them up, lest confidence in U.S. commitments — to deter our enemies and protect our allies — gets even weaker. [Foreign Policy]
You can read the rest at the link, but his recommendations include communicating to the Kim regime that proliferation will lead to a “direct response” whatever that means. North Korea has already tried to proliferate nuclear technology to Syria and nothing happened to them then. So would the US be willing to attack North Korea in future if it tries to proliferate again? I am skeptical. He also recommends that the US respond to proliferating missile technology. They have already done this with little consequence as well. He also thinks that North Korea needs to be engaged at the sub strategic level when they commit bad acts such as cyber attacks.
As we have seen with North Korea’s missile program it is only a matter of time before they develop the reentry technology:
North Korea has yet to fully secure the development of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) as it remains unknown whether the country’s recently fired ballistic missile successfully re-entered the atmosphere, lawmakers said Tuesday quoting the spy agency.
On July 4, North Korea fired a ballistic missile called Hwasong-14 which reached an altitude of 2,802 kilometers and flew 933 km for 39 minutes. The North touted it as the country’s first successful ICBM launch.
But South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) concluded that the latest missile still lacked re-entry technology although it flew as far as an ICBM does, Rep. Yi Wan-young of the Liberty Korea Party and Rep. Kim Byung-kee of the ruling Democratic Party said following the spy agency’s parliamentary report on the July 4 launch.
“Although North Korea claimed that (the missile’s) heat resistance was verified, whether it re-entered (the atmosphere safely) was not confirmed and the country has no relevant test facility, making it look like it has not secured the technology,” the NIS was quoted as reporting to the parliamentary intelligence committee. [Yonhap]
Here is an interesting historical analysis of the Chinese, Russian, and North Korean relationship during the early years of the Kim Il-sung regime. This historical analysis does have some interesting parallels on why the Chinese government continues to support the Kim Jong-un regime today:
From left to right: Mao Zedong, Nikita Khrushchev, Nikolai Bulganin, Anastas Mikoyan, Mikhail Suslov, Kim Il-sung, V Shiroky, and Enver Khohgha, At the celebration of the 40th anniversary of the October Socialist Revolution, 1957.
But for all the frustration, North Korea is an important piece on Beijing’s diplomatic board. If played incorrectly, it could backfire on China to the detriment of its bid for global leadership. Bringing Kim to his knees on behalf of the international community does nothing to advance Xi’s vision of a China-centered order in East Asia.
This is not new. Beijing has played this game before—most disastrously in 1956, when then North Korean leader Kim Il Sung brutally purged his political opponents suspected of ties to China and the Soviet Union. Moscow and Beijing intervened on their behalf, but Kim outplayed his allies with Machiavellian guile.
The crisis was also a turning point for China’s relations with North Korea. It was in 1956 that Beijing realized it had to go easy on Pyongyang, despite Kim’s maddening obstinacy, because the alternative was to surrender the country to the Soviet influence. As difficult as Kim was, he kept his distance from Moscow, and he could be an important ally in Beijing’s bid for leadership in the socialist bloc. Overnight, North Korea became an issue in China’s relationship with the Soviet Union, much as today it complicates China’s relationship with the United States. [China File]
Here is some interesting dialogue between Chinese premier Mao Zedong and the Soviets based off of records released from the Soviet archives:
Mao agreed with Mikoyan that there were serious problems in Pyongyang. Himself a ruthless dictator, Mao claimed Kim, who “still does the Stalin thing,” appalled him. “He brooks no word of disagreement and kills all who tries to oppose him,” Mao said.
But he claimed that China had no influence on the North Koreans. “This time we have to mainly rely on you,” he told Mikoyan. “They won’t listen to China!” Mikoyan retorted that Moscow’s leverage was hardly any better, but Mao disagreed: “They won’t listen to China 100 percent of the time. They won’t listen to you 70 percent of the time.”
Mikoyan said he simply did not understand why Kim was acting this way. Mao knew why: “He is afraid that our two parties are digging under the wall [of his house].”
And Mao, sensing, rightly or wrongly, that Moscow was plotting Kim’s ouster, warned the Soviet envoy they should not try to topple him. The Chinese leader opposed the Soviet practice of overthrowing recalcitrant tyrants. Nor did he think Kim’s regime was as bad as the Soviets claimed. After all, Mao’s own regime was not exactly democratic either. If he helped bring down Kim’s house, he would set a precedent that could one day be used against him.
There was another reason for Mao’s hesitation. He was beginning to challenge Moscow for leadership in the socialist camp. He accused the Soviets of arrogance, and of trying to impose their will on other countries. Much as he feared letting Kim get away with brutalities would lead to North Korea’s collapse, he did not want the Soviets to use him as a proxy.
You look at what is happening today and you see the parallel that the Chinese do not want the Kim regime toppled and have continued to oppose attempts by the US to impose its will on other countries around the world to include North Korea.
It is worth reading the whole article at the link.
The big take away for Korea watchers from this successful flight test of the THAAD missile defense system is that the threat target was an Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) which is the same class of missile as North Korea’s Musudan. A THAAD battery was deployed to Guam back in 2013 to defend against the Musudan threat to Guam and this flight test validates its capability to defend against this threat:
The United States said on Tuesday it shot down a simulated, incoming intermediate-range ballistic missile similar the ones being developed by countries like North Korea, in a new test of the nation’s defences.
Planned months ago, the U.S. missile defence test over the Pacific Ocean has gained significance after North Korea’s July 4 launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile heightened concerns about the threat from Pyongyang.
The test was the first-ever of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system against an incoming IRBM, which experts say is a faster and more difficult target to hit than shorter-range missiles.
The U.S. Missile Defense Agency said the IRBM was designed to behave similarly to the kinds of missiles that could threaten the United States.
“The successful demonstration of THAAD against an IRBM-range missile threat bolsters the country’s defensive capability against developing missile threats in North Korea and other countries,” the Missile Defense Agency said in a statement. [Reuters]
You can read more at the link, but the THAAD system has now had 14 of 14 successful intercepts during flight tests.
Here is what Senior Colonel Zhou Bo from China’s Ministry of National Defense had to say about the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) contact with North Korea:
What sort of relations does the Chinese military have with its North Korean counterparts? Are you in regular contact with them?
No not at all. We have zero contact with them right now.
Why is that the case when China – at least some officials – refer to North Korea as neighbours, sometimes even as a good neighbour? So you have no contact with the military of a close neighbour?
No, currently we do not have any contact or ties with the DPRK militarily. In the past we did, we had a lot of contact and exchanges. I think this reflect a kind of change in our relationship for the reasons known to all.
China and DPRK are definitely neighbors, and we fought a war on Korean soil a long, long time ago. But what I would say is China is right now united with the international community to seriously honour UN resolutions, and we hope we eventually may find a solution to these problems. [Channel News Asia]
I find it hard to believe they have no contact with North Korea. So there is no PLA defense attache at the Chinese embassy in Pyongyang?
