Tag: North Korea

Here is the latest on the follow up actions from the Trump administration after North Korea’s weekend nuclear test:

President Donald Trump left war with North Korea on the table as an option if Pyongyang doesn’t behave after a call with China’s Xi Jinping on Wednesday that the the U.S. leader described as ‘very, very frank.’

Trump told reporters as he was leaving the White House for a tax speech outside Washington, ‘We will not be putting up with what’s happening in North Korea.’

War is ‘certainly not our first choice,’ he said in response to a shouted question, ‘but we will see what happens.’

The administration has repeatedly said it is keeping every option on the table as it grapples with the threat from North Korea. The president’s remark is likely to stir new worries, however, that Trump is actually mulling military action. [Daily Mail]

You can read more at the link, but why shouldn’t the President consider all options available to him?  It is pretty clear the Chinese option is the one he is pursuing and giving a chance to work before even contemplating a military response.

Via a reader tip comes this article from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute that describes the possible perils of a pre-emptive strike on North Korea:

First, conflict on the Korean peninsula could result in a momentous change in China’s role in the region and ultimately the globe. That could range from absolute regional dominance to collapse and disintegration into internal instability.

Regardless of the outcome of the conflict, South Korea could reject a self-interested, value-less, America-first approach to the region and choose to accept China’s dominance as the price to be paid for unification. For most South Koreans, China’s current steady position of reiterating the need for de-escalation, multilateral dialogue, and ultimately denuclearisation—essentially, diplomacy—stands in stark contrast to the incoherence and fecklessness of Donald Trump’s bluster. Throughout history, when China was weak, external states or greater independence came to the Korean peninsula. When China was strong, the Korean peninsula fell under its influence. It was from this point that China’s regional influence grew. China’s dominance on the Korean peninsula could again be a launching pad for dominance in East Asia.

Alternatively, unification could spread dissatisfaction and opposition to authoritarian rule across the region, leading to internal instability in China. Political disruption, economic dislocation and descent into instability are possible outcomes. Even in the most favourable unification scenario, North Koreans with direct or indirect experience of the momentous human rights abuses that China implicitly supported could act as a powerful constraint to China’s long-term influence in a unified Korea. China’s current policies aimed at maintaining the status quo are founded on the fears of such potential outcomes. Regardless of which way the dice fall, China’s regional role will change. A pre-emptive strike in Korea would precipitate that change.  [The Strategist]

You can read more at the link, but I don’t think anyone denies that China will have a major role in after a conflict with North Korea.  That is why I think the US government is giving China the maximum opportunity to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue without a military confrontation.  I also think if the price of a unified Korea after a military conflict is one with China with primary hegemony over the peninsula many policy makers may actually think that may be a good deal to get rid of the Kim regime and their nuclear weapons.

Here's what's driving North Korea's nuclear program — and it might be more than self-defense https://t.co/Ibbn5sHda2

— Joshua Stanton (@freekorea_us) September 4, 2017

Considering how powerful their latest nuclear test was the North Koreans may not need to conduct another nuclear test under this mountain which is now at risk of collapsing and releasing deadly radiation:

A mountain in North Korea believed to have served as the site of five of the rogue regime’s nuclear tests — including Sunday’s supposed hydrogen bomb explosion — is at risk of collapsing and leaking radiation into the region, a Chinese scientist said Monday.

Researchers at the University of Science and Technology of China in Hefei, Anhui province, examined the Punggye-ri site and said they “were confident” underground detonations were occurring underneath the mountain, South China Morning Post reported. Wang Naiyan, a former chairman of the China Nuclear Society and a researcher on China’s own nuclear weapons program, said another test underneath the mountain can cause an “environmental disaster” if the site caves in on itself, allowing radiation to escape and “drift across the region,” including into China.  [Fox News via a reader tip]

You can read more at the link.

As I have said before, despite all the provocations and deadly aggressive behavior over the past few years by Kim Jong-un, some how South Koreans are more fearful of President Trump:

“My firm belief is that war will not happen. The general consensus among my friends is that war won’t break out since the U.S. and China are involved,” Choi Yong-kwan, a 20-year-old college student, said as he read an article on his mobile phone.”But I definitely do feel a sense of growing tension and fear ― it’s their sixth nuclear test and they are on their way to refining their nukes.”

“I’ll leave Korea and head for Canada or something” was the initial response from Park, an elementary school teacher. But as she went on, she dismissed the idea of war. “To be honest I don’t put too much thought into this because it’s always been this way. War does not come easily,” she said. “And we shouldn’t be worried. Fear is what leads to war.”

For the public in the South, North Korea’s provocations are not treated as something new. Although most stuck to this instinct, some added U.S. President Donald Trump as a new, unpredictable and perhaps even more frightening variable.

“This is nothing new. Just another provocation by the North as I see it and it’s been worse before but still did not lead to war. I don’t think any South Korean male who has been in the military is scared,” 29-year-old Yoon Tae-jun from Busan said, adding “But then again I’m not sure this time because of Trump.

“I’m not keeping an eye on this ― maybe this is the problem. But this time, maybe Trump will take some sort of action,” Kwon Suk-in, 27, said. “There must be no war.”  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.

This statement from North Korea’s ambassador is said in way in which the Kim regime wants to blame the US for them conducting an ICBM test:

North Korea has warned it is ready to send “more gift packages” to the US if it continues to put pressure on the regime.

Han Tae Song, ambassador of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) to the UN in Geneva, was addressing the UN-sponsored Conference on Disarmament two days after his country detonated its sixth and largest nuclear test.

“I am proud of saying that just two days ago on the 3rd of September, DPRK succcessfully carried out a hydrogen bomb test for intercontinental ballistic rocket under its plan for building a strategic nuclear force,” Mr Han said.

He told the Geneva forum: “The recent self-defence measures by my country, DPRK, are a gift package addressed to none other than the US.

“The US will receive more gift packages from my country as long as it relies on reckless provocations and futile attempts to put pressure on the DPRK,” he added.

It came after South Korean media citing an unidentified intelligence source said North Korea had been observed moving what appeared to be an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) towards its west coast.  [The Independent]

You can read more at the link.

Japanese politician & former pro wrestler Antonio Inoki heading to Pyongyang Sep. 7 (he's a frequent visitor) https://t.co/q2yAf04WU6

— Alastair Gale (@AlastairGale) September 4, 2017

The next logical thing for the Kim regime to test would be an ICBM over Japan to complete this current provocation period:

North Korea may fire an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on a standard trajectory toward the North Pacific around its key anniversary following its sixth nuclear test, South Korea’s spy agency said Monday.

The National Intelligence Service (NIS) told lawmakers in a closed session that Pyongyang may lob the missile around the anniversary of the regime’s foundation slated for Saturday or the establishment of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea on Oct. 10.

North Korea fired ballistic missiles, including two ICBMs fired in July, at a lofted angle to prevent them from crossing over other countries including Japan. But Pyongyang lobbed a Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile that flew over Japan last week.

“There is a possibility that the North would fire an ICBM on a standard trajectory,” the NIS was quoted as saying by lawmakers.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

Considering that the Blue House cannot even get the remaining four THAAD launchers to the site at Seongju blockaded by protesters, could you imagine the size of the blockade that would happen to any location hosting tactical nuclear weapons?  However if the US and the ROK wanted to get China and North Korea’s attention reintroducing tactical nuclear weapons would be one way doing it:

The Blue House dismissed the possibility of bringing U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea after reports got out that Korean Defense Minister Song Young-moo mentioned the idea in a meeting with his counterparts in Washington.

“We have not discussed anything related to the tactical nuclear weapons in this administration,” said a senior government official of the Blue House. “The Korean government respects the international efforts on nonproliferation and its policies have been and will be in line with these efforts.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link.

Stiffening alliance response to North Korea https://t.co/fE6cLBvBQY

— Patrick Cronin (@PMCroninCNAS) September 3, 2017