Considering how powerful their latest nuclear test was the North Koreans may not need to conduct another nuclear test under this mountain which is now at risk of collapsing and releasing deadly radiation:
A mountain in North Korea believed to have served as the site of five of the rogue regime’s nuclear tests — including Sunday’s supposed hydrogen bomb explosion — is at risk of collapsing and leaking radiation into the region, a Chinese scientist said Monday.
Researchers at the University of Science and Technology of China in Hefei, Anhui province, examined the Punggye-ri site and said they “were confident” underground detonations were occurring underneath the mountain, South China Morning Post reported. Wang Naiyan, a former chairman of the China Nuclear Society and a researcher on China’s own nuclear weapons program, said another test underneath the mountain can cause an “environmental disaster” if the site caves in on itself, allowing radiation to escape and “drift across the region,” including into China. [Fox News via a reader tip]
As I have said before, despite all the provocations and deadly aggressive behavior over the past few years by Kim Jong-un, some how South Koreans are more fearful of President Trump:
Citizens in Seoul Station watch news showing a North Korean newsreader announcing that Pyongyang successfully carried out a hydrogen bomb test, Sunday. / Yonhap
“My firm belief is that war will not happen. The general consensus among my friends is that war won’t break out since the U.S. and China are involved,” Choi Yong-kwan, a 20-year-old college student, said as he read an article on his mobile phone.”But I definitely do feel a sense of growing tension and fear ― it’s their sixth nuclear test and they are on their way to refining their nukes.”
“I’ll leave Korea and head for Canada or something” was the initial response from Park, an elementary school teacher. But as she went on, she dismissed the idea of war. “To be honest I don’t put too much thought into this because it’s always been this way. War does not come easily,” she said. “And we shouldn’t be worried. Fear is what leads to war.”
For the public in the South, North Korea’s provocations are not treated as something new. Although most stuck to this instinct, some added U.S. President Donald Trump as a new, unpredictable and perhaps even more frightening variable.
“This is nothing new. Just another provocation by the North as I see it and it’s been worse before but still did not lead to war. I don’t think any South Korean male who has been in the military is scared,” 29-year-old Yoon Tae-jun from Busan said, adding “But then again I’m not sure this time because of Trump.
“I’m not keeping an eye on this ― maybe this is the problem. But this time, maybe Trump will take some sort of action,” Kwon Suk-in, 27, said. “There must be no war.” [Korea Times]
This statement from North Korea’s ambassador is said in way in which the Kim regime wants to blame the US for them conducting an ICBM test:
North Korea has warned it is ready to send “more gift packages” to the US if it continues to put pressure on the regime.
Han Tae Song, ambassador of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) to the UN in Geneva, was addressing the UN-sponsored Conference on Disarmament two days after his country detonated its sixth and largest nuclear test.
“I am proud of saying that just two days ago on the 3rd of September, DPRK succcessfully carried out a hydrogen bomb test for intercontinental ballistic rocket under its plan for building a strategic nuclear force,” Mr Han said.
He told the Geneva forum: “The recent self-defence measures by my country, DPRK, are a gift package addressed to none other than the US.
“The US will receive more gift packages from my country as long as it relies on reckless provocations and futile attempts to put pressure on the DPRK,” he added.
The next logical thing for the Kim regime to test would be an ICBM over Japan to complete this current provocation period:
North Korea may fire an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on a standard trajectory toward the North Pacific around its key anniversary following its sixth nuclear test, South Korea’s spy agency said Monday.
The National Intelligence Service (NIS) told lawmakers in a closed session that Pyongyang may lob the missile around the anniversary of the regime’s foundation slated for Saturday or the establishment of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea on Oct. 10.
North Korea fired ballistic missiles, including two ICBMs fired in July, at a lofted angle to prevent them from crossing over other countries including Japan. But Pyongyang lobbed a Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile that flew over Japan last week.
“There is a possibility that the North would fire an ICBM on a standard trajectory,” the NIS was quoted as saying by lawmakers. [Yonhap]
Considering that the Blue House cannot even get the remaining four THAAD launchers to the site at Seongju blockaded by protesters, could you imagine the size of the blockade that would happen to any location hosting tactical nuclear weapons? However if the US and the ROK wanted to get China and North Korea’s attention reintroducing tactical nuclear weapons would be one way doing it:
Two B-1B Lancer bombers from Guam and four F-35B stealth fighter jets from U.S. bases in Japan fly over Japan’s air space on Thursday after the United States deployed its strategic assets to South Korea for a live firing exercise near the inter-Korean border, in response to the North’s intermediate-range ballistic missile launch Tuesday. [YONHAP]The Blue House dismissed the possibility of bringing U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea after reports got out that Korean Defense Minister Song Young-moo mentioned the idea in a meeting with his counterparts in Washington.
“We have not discussed anything related to the tactical nuclear weapons in this administration,” said a senior government official of the Blue House. “The Korean government respects the international efforts on nonproliferation and its policies have been and will be in line with these efforts. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
So what is South Korean President Moon Jae-in going to do after this latest provocation? Just last month he said a red line for him would be if North Korea developed a nuclear weapon that could be outfitted on an ICBM and that is what the Kim regime is claiming they have done:
North Korea said Sunday that it has successfully conducted a test of a hydrogen bomb that can be loaded into its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in what could be the most powerful detonation.
In an “important” announcement, North Korea said that it carried out the sixth nuclear test at 12:00 p.m. (Pyongyang Time), calling it a “perfect” success.
The announcement came hours after an artificial earthquake with a 5.7 magnitude was detected near North Korea’s nuclear site in the northeastern area. [Yonhap]
Here is what Moon Jae-in’s response is to crossing a “red line”, more sanctions:
South Korea strongly condemned North Korea’s latest nuclear test Sunday, vowing to push for fresh and the most powerful sanctions by the U.N. Security Council to completely isolate the communist state.
“President Moon Jae-in said the country will never allow North Korea to continue advancing its nuclear and missile technologies,” Moon’s key security adviser Chung Eui-yong said at a press briefing on the outcome of the National Security Council (NSC) meeting held earlier in the day. [Yonhap]
The Japanese Prime Minister’s word are in line with Moon’s in regards to taking North Korea to the UN Security Council:
The nuclear test was confirmed by the Japanese government, which said the North had conducted the blast, but criticism of the test was rife around the globe.
In Tokyo, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe slammed the test as “absolutely unacceptable” and vowed a tough response at the United Nations. [Japan Times]
Some how I doubt the Kim regime is impressed by threats of taking them to the UN Security Council. I guess we will see if the nuclear test will be enough to get the ROK government to move the blockade preventing the installment of the remaining four THAAD launchers in Seongju.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un reportedly inspecting the loading of a hydrogen bomb onto a new intercontinental ballistic missile, according to North Korea’s state media, a claim that some outside experts doubt but one that intensifies already high levels of concern on the Korean Peninsula. [AP/YONHAP]It appears this and other issues are reaching a boiling point with President Trump who heavily criticized President Moon over Twitter:
South Korea is finding, as I have told them, that their talk of appeasement with North Korea will not work, they only understand one thing!
It appears that President Trump is about to put significant pressure on South Korea over the US-ROK Free Trade Agreement despite the nuclear test:
On trade, the president’s top economic advisers remain deeply divided over a possible withdrawal from the United States-Korea Free Trade Agreement, as negotiators from both countries struggle to rewrite the five-year-old deal.
In recent days, a frustrated Mr. Trump has pushed his staff to take bold action against a host of governments, including the one in Seoul, that he has accused of unfair trade practices. But many of his more moderate advisers, including the chairman of the National Economic Council, Gary D. Cohn, believe that such a move could prompt a trade war that could hurt the United States economy.
An industry publication, Inside U.S. Trade, first reported late Friday that the administration was considering withdrawing from the treaty as early as next week.
“Discussions are ongoing, but we have no announcements at this time,” a White House spokeswoman said in an email.
But Mr. Trump, asked during a trip to the Gulf Coast on Saturday whether he was talking with his advisers about the trade deal, said: “I am. It’s very much on my mind.”
The idea of potentially withdrawing seems to have been prompted by the breakdown in negotiations between South Korean officials and the United States Trade Representative, Robert E. Lighthizer, an American official with knowledge of the situation said. [New York Times]
I think a country that should be concerned about US economic retaliation is China if President Trump follows through on a threat to cut all trade with nations doing business with North Korea:
In recent days, the president has said more sanctions, coupled with implied and explicit threats of military action, would motivate Pyongyang to change its behavior.
The Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, said on Sunday that he planned to draft a new sanctions package that would cut economic ties with anyone who did business with North Korea.
“There’s a lot we can do to cut them off economically, much more than we’ve done,” Mr. Mnuchin said, speaking on “Fox News Sunday.” He called Pyongyang’s actions “unacceptable” and stressed the need for stronger steps.
Mr. Trump went so far on Sunday as to threaten to stop “all trade with any country doing business with North Korea,” an extremely unlikely prospect that, if carried out, would have cataclysmic consequences for the global economy. China is just one of the dozens of countries that trade with the North. [New York Times]
With 90% of trade into North Korea going through China it is pretty obvious the only way for sanctions to work is to focus on China. However, the consequences of an embargo on Chinese made products would have significant repercussions on the US economy until manufacturers could reestablish product lines in other countries. Because of this it seems the sanctions on China need to be incremental to give manufacturers enough time to move out of China.
The United States is considering, in addition to other options, stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea.
Here is what China had to say about the nuclear test:
China urged North Korea to stop its “wrong” actions, after the reclusive said it had a successful test of hydrogen bomb that can be mounted onto its inter-continental ballistic missiles on Sunday.
In a statement on its website, China’s Foreign Ministry said China resolutely opposed and strongly condemned North Korea’s actions, and urged the country to respect U.N. Security Council resolutions.
North Korea “has ignored the international community’s widespread opposition, again carrying out a nuclear test. China’s government expresses resolute opposition and strong condemnation toward this,” the ministry said in the statement. [Korea Times]
Judging by this statement it doesn’t appear China is prepared to do much against North Korea in response to the nuclear test. The coming days should be interesting to see how the Trump administration responds. It is pretty clear increased sanctions are going to happen, but will there be any military response as well?
North Korea has decided to pile on in regards to the US Navy’s recent high-profile collisions:
The U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyer USS John S. McCain is seen after a collision, in Singapore waters August 21, 2017. North Korea mocked the deadly incident in its latest threats. Ahmad Masood/Reuters
North Korea has used the recent fatal incidents involving two U.S. warships in its latest anti-American diatribe.
An article published in several state-controlled North Korean publications on Thursday derided the collisions involving the USS John S. McCain and USS Fitzgerald, which resulted in a combined death toll of 17 U.S. Navy sailors, and described them as a foreshadowing of America’s own destruction.
“When the American empire is sinking into the bottom of sea with the Aegis ship, strategic rockets soared into the space in the East, shaking the world with great thunder and spouting grenadine fire,” the article read, attempting to draw a link between Pyongyang’s missile tests and the accidents. (………….)
The article goes on to lecture the U.S. on philosophy, quoting an Ancient Greek aphorism about wisdom being derived from the acknowledgment of one’s ignorance.
“‘Know thyself,’” the article read, before adding: “The U.S. should realize that if it disregards this warning of history and behaves recklessly, threatening peace in the Korean peninsula and Northeast Asia, the U.S. mainland will be wrecked tomorrow just like the Aegis destroyer wrecked today.” [Newsweek]
