Tag: North Korea

Maybe I missed it, but I don’t remember any lawmakers asking questions about how many casualties there would be in Libya and Syria before the Obama administration promoted conflicts in those two countries:

The only way to locate and destroy with complete certainty all components of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program is through a ground invasion. That blunt assessment from the Pentagon is in response to a letter from two Democratic congressmen asking about casualty assessments in a conflict with North Korea.

Rear Adm. Michael J. Dumont of the Joint Staff offered the assessment in response to a letter from Reps. Ted Lieu of California and Ruben Gallego of Arizona.

Dumont noted that the U.S. is evaluating North Korea’s ability to target heavily populated areas of South Korea with long-range artillery, rockets and ballistic missiles. He also pointed out that Seoul, the South’s capital with a population of 25 million, is just 35 miles from the demilitarized zone. The amount of casualties would differ depending on the advance warning and the ability of U.S. and South Korea forces to counter these attacks, he said.

“A classified briefing would be the best place to discuss in detail the capability of the U.S. and its allies to discuss capabilities to counter North Korea’s ability to respond with a nuclear weapon and eliminate North Korea’s nuclear weapons located in deeply buried, underground facilities,” he said. He also mentioned the possibility that chemical and biological weapons might be used by the North in case of a conflict.

Military officials would be happy to join “the intelligence community to address these issues in a classified briefing,” he said.

In a joint statement issued Saturday, 15 Democratic lawmakers and one Republican— all military veterans — called the assessment that a ground invasion would be required to destroy the North’s nuclear arsenal “deeply disturbing” and that such an action “could result in hundreds of thousands, or even millions of deaths in just the first few days of fighting.”

“It is our intent to have a full public accounting of the potential cost of war, so the American people understand the commitment we would be making as a nation if we were to pursue military action,” the lawmakers said.

They also said the Trump administration “has failed to articulate any plans to prevent the military conflict from expanding beyond the Korean Peninsula and to manage what happens after the conflict is over.”

“With that in mind, the thought of sending troops into harm’s way and expending resources on another potentially unwinnable war is chilling. The President needs to stop making provocative statements that hinder diplomatic options and put American troops further at risk,” they said.  [Associated Press]

I think the assessment that needs to be made is not a ground invasion, but what would happen in the aftermath of a limited bombing strike on their strategic facilities?  Would the Kim regime respond with a ground war that would lead to regime change and them getting the Muammar Gaddafi treatment?

First time I have seen a North Korean publication "censor" a picture of the Kims: pic.twitter.com/vXCQjZB2Pv

— Curtis Melvin 커티스 멜빈 (@CurtisMelvin) November 2, 2017

Can someone please explain to me what the success of the Sunshine Policy was that warrants it to be reimplemented?:

To mediate two volatile partners ― Washington and Pyongyang ― Kim called for Seoul to revisit the 20-year-old Sunshine Policy. “Some people blast the policy, saying it’s only devoted to showering North Korea with rice. However, the essence of the Sunshine Policy is constantly making efforts to take the helm in shaping the nation’s future.

“Given the characteristics of the incumbent U.S. administration, Seoul should be more proactive in addressing its needs. For example, the U.S. has urged its allies to maximize pressure toward Pyongyang while it’s maintaining unofficial contact with the North.”

He cited former President George Bush’s message of peace at the Dorasan train station near the inter-Korean border in 2002 as fruit from the Sunshine Policy. Only a month after the hawkish president blasted North Korea by calling it the “axis of evil,” the older Kim successfully persuaded his U.S. counterpart to promise to talk with North Korea.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but a return to the Sunshine Policy means is that the Kim regime will arm themselves with nuclear weapons and ICBMs quicker.

This sounds more like business as usual in North Korea than an actual purge:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has resumed his purges, the National Intelligence Service here said Thursday.

In an audit by the National Assembly Intelligence Committee, NIS officials said Kim has stepped up surveillance of senior officials and resumed purges and executions to create a climate of fear.

Lawmakers quoted officials as saying Kim sent several senior editors of the Rodong Sinmun daily to a reeducatiom camp for failing to celebrate a missile launch on the front page, and executed a senior officer of an anti-aircraft battery in Pyongyang for corruption. [Chosun Ilbo]

You can read more at the link.

Democrat wants Trump to figure out how many would die in war with North Korea https://t.co/UCU8uSr5Yu

— NorthKoreaRealTime (@BuckTurgidson79) November 2, 2017

Former North Korean diplomat turned defector, Thae Yong-ho is calling for the US to increase its efforts to fight the information war within North Korea:

The North Korean leader does not have a full grasp of the strength and might of U.S. military power, Thae said, leading him to believe that if he can get Washington to accept Pyongyang’s possession of ballistic missiles capable of reaching the U.S., all sanctions against his regime will be lifted.

The former diplomat is in Washington at a time of heightened tension over Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile testing. U.S. President Donald Trump is set to travel to Asia on Friday in part to rally further support behind his administration’s sanctions and pressure campaign.

But Thae appeared to question the U.S. policy.

“We can educate the North Korean population to stand up by disseminating outside information,” he said. “However, is the United States really doing enough in this regard? The U.S. is spending billions of dollars to cope with the military threat. Yet how much does the U.S. spend each year on information activities involving North Korea in a year? Unfortunately, it may be a tiny fraction.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but this is something I have been saying for years is that fighting the information campaign inside of North Korea should be aggressively pursued.  Something else Thae discussed was the world coming together against the Kim regime like it did to end Apartheid in South Africa.  This is another viewpoint I have advocated for is that why is North Korea welcomed at international venues like the Olympics when Apartheid South Africa was shunned?  Apartheid South Africa had no where near the human rights abuses or was a threat to world peace as the Kim regime currently is.

Over at One Free Korea he has videos of Thae’s speech available which should be required viewing for those interested in this topic.  OFK also has some great analysis I recommend everyone read as well.

Here is what another so called North Korea expert says should be done to resolve the ongoing nuclear crisis which is basically more of the same that has led to the slow motion acquisition of North Korean nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles:

Diplomacy is the only way to achieve a peaceful resolution of the North Korea nuclear crisis, according to Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association.

She said that in order to bring North Korea back to negotiations, U.S.President Donald Trump and his administration should send a sincere, consistent message that the offer of engagement is real.

“Diplomacy is the only path forward to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis,” Davenport said in a recent interview.

“The Trump administration purports to advance a strategy of maximum pressure and engagement but U.S. actions and rhetoric expose a serious diplomacy deficit,” she added.

She pointed out that mixed messages from Trump and top administration officials about U.S.intentions to engage in talks further complicate the environment.

“The Trump administration can and must signal to North Korea that it is willing to engage in talks without preconditions,” she said.

“Direct talks would give the U.S. an opportunity to discuss a path forward with North Korea to reduce tension.”

Davenport stressed that the U.S. Congress should also refrain from activities that heighten tension and muddy the waters regarding the prospects of diplomacy.

“That may require putting denuclearization on the back burner, voicing support for shorter-term, more manageable goals, and giving existing sanctions time to work before pushing new measures,” she said.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but all I read was more of the same strategy used for the past 25 years that has led to where we are at today.

Ms. Davenport’s strategy is to once again reward the North Koreans for their bad behavior by limiting US-ROK military drills.  She says it would not impact military readiness, how would she know that?  In my opinion cancelling a UFG or Key Resolve exercise would impact readiness considering the constant change over of personnel in Korea and the amount of off-Pen augmentees that participate in the training.

Ms. Davenport believes offering up a military exercise will lead to the “freeze deal” that many in the academic world are calling for.  I think if any freeze deal is pursued it should include robust inspections and the risk of a retaliatory bombing strike if it is not complied with.  However, I am doubtful the Kim regime will ever sign up for vigorous inspections when they know the so called experts are more interested in making a deal than actually denuclearizing North Korea.

KJU order all NK laborers in China, including restaurant workers, to start packing & leave China by year-end 2017.https://t.co/SAH1OUtDtR

— Noon in Korea (@NoonInKorea) October 30, 2017

This is not surprising to people who have been following this issue, but stopping the foreign parts supply to North Korea is hopefully a major effort being taken by the US government:

So far this year, North Korea has conducted 16 test launches of missiles, virtually each one personally approved by the country’s young dictator, Kim Jong-un. With every test, North Korea takes a step toward its ultimate goal: an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of hitting the United states with a thermonuclear warhead.

This week on 60 Minutes, correspondent David Martin and producer Mary Walsh report just how close the North Koreans are to that goal — and how they get their hands on the parts to do it.

Martin and Walsh interviewed Hugh Griffiths, head of the team that monitors the North Korean missile program and their compliance with sanctions for the U.N. Security Council. During the interview, Griffiths showed the 60 Minutes team a series of stunning photos of rocket debris, which revealed the the inner workings of a North Korean missile.

“What makes this rocket fly was in those photos,” Walsh tells 60 Minutes Overtime in the video above. “And that’s what made them so valuable to the U.N. inspectors, but also to 60 Minutes.”

The recovery of North Korean rocket debris is highly unusual, says Griffiths. In February 2016, North Korea launched a satellite into orbit, and while the satellite wasn’t very serious, the rocket that launched it was. “I think most people around the world agree, the point of this test was not to put a satellite into orbit,” Martin says. “The point of this test was to try out technologies for an intercontinental ballistic missile.”

Before launch, North Korea filed a Notice to Airmen and Mariners, warning them that debris may fall from the sky in a designated area. The South Koreans, in turn, knew exactly where to go in an attempt to recover the debris for intelligence purposes.

To block the South Koreans from collecting their debris, the North Koreans rigged the rocket with explosives that were supposed to detonate after boosting the satellite into orbit, Griffiths says. The rocket was meant to self-destruct, rendering its parts unrecognizable. But that system failed, says Griffiths, leaving the South Koreans with a debris field to collect and analyze.

“This was a gold mine,” correspondent David Martin says. “You just get this in-depth, excruciatingly detailed understanding of how these missiles work.”  [60 Minutes]

You can read more at the link, but considering the North Koreans may be planning to launch another ICBM disguised as a space launch it will be interesting to see if they put out a notice beforehand again?  Considering the intelligence value the ROK received from the recovered debris from the last launch it will be interesting to see what the regime decides to do.

https://www.rokdrop.net/2017/11/153783/

If this report is true, the fact these workers were tunneling shows that the Kim regime has future plans for more nuclear tests:

More than 200 people are believed to have died in underground tunnels after a collapse at North Korea’s Punggye-ri nuclear facility.

The test site was reportedly badly shaken by the aftermath of the country’s sixth nuclear test, a 100-kiloton hydrogen bomb roughly seven times more powerful than the atomic bomb the U.S. dropped on Hiroshima in 1945.

North Korean sources told Japanese television channel Asahi TV that the collapse occurred in October during the construction of an underground tunnel at the facility.

Around 100 workers were stuck underground and a group that was sent to their rescue were also buried after another collapse, causing a total death toll of around 200.

A series of small-scale earthquakes that followed the September 3 test indicated the facility, built south of the Mantapsan mountain, may no longer be stable enough to conduct further tests.  [Newsweek]

You can read more at the link, but I wonder how many of the workers killed were just forced laborers from the regime’s system of gulags?