Tag: North Korea

I tend to agree with this analysis from Carl Schuster from Hawaii Pacific University:

But if U.S. forces were to enter North Korea, how China responds will depend largely on why, said Carl Schuster, a retired Navy captain who now lectures at Hawaii Pacific University.

“Let’s say North Korea does something stupid like launches a missile that lands in South Korea or hits a U.S. base, or North Korea suddenly fires some artillery rounds across the DMZ and Seoul, if North Korea does that, China will have no problem with us pounding North Korea’s government into the dirt,” he said.

But there is a difference between aerial strikes and troops on the ground, and how the Chinese regime will respond to either is uncertain. At the very least, Beijing will seek international pressure to stop a U.S. offensive.

But while crossing the 38th parallel may be tolerated under some circumstances, taking the North Korean capital will not be, he said.

“If it looks like we are going to go north of Pyongyang, in their minds, that will be a red line.”

China may tolerate U.S. forces crossing the border to crush the North Korean army, he said, but he expects Beijing would send forces to occupy Pyongyang. North Korea’s capital will remain a no-go zone, he said.

“If North Korea initiates the conflict, China will watch it closely, prepare for North Korea’s defeat, but they won’t intervene if we don’t go to far.”  [The Epoch Times]

You can read much more at the link, but I have always believed there is a strong possibility the Chinese would move in and occupy Pyongyang if they feared the US or ROK were going to occupy North Korea.  This would not be a repeat though of the massive Chinese intervention into the Korean War where they played a significant combat role.  Instead I believe the Chinese will rapidly, but openly move into Pyongyang under the guise of being peacekeepers.

If the US or the ROK were to attack the Chinese troops they would be initiating combat against peacekeepers.  I think this will likely prevent any action against the Chinese troops and give Beijing a strong negotiating hand to settle the conflict in a way favorable to Chinese interests.

I doubt the Kim regime is too concerned about new sanctions considering how they continue to evade sanctions through Chinese complicity:

Newly proposed sanctions on North Korea could have a significant effect on the isolated country’s already struggling economy, analysts said ahead of an expected U.N. Security Council vote on Friday, which will hinge on support from China and Russia.  (……)

The draft U.N. resolution, seen by Reuters on Thursday, seeks to ban nearly 90 percent of refined petroleum product exports to North Korea by capping them at 500,000 barrels a year and demand the repatriation of North Koreans working abroad within 12 months.

It would also cap crude oil supplies to North Korea at 4 million barrels a year, as well as ban a number of North Korean exports such as machinery, lumber, and other products and resources.

“If they were enforced, the cap on oil would be devastating for North Korea’s haulage industry, for North Koreans who use generators at home or for productive activities, and for (state-owned enterprises) that do the same,” said Peter Ward, a columnist for NK News, a website that tracks North Korea.

The forced repatriation of foreign workers would also cut off vital sources of foreign currency and investment not only for the government but also for North Korea’s emerging market economy, he said.

“If such sanctions were enforced, they would thus impede and endanger North Korea’s economic development.  [Business Insider]

You can read more at the link, but the big qualifier mentioned in the article is if they are enforced.

It will be interesting to see if through CCTV or witnesses that the US military investigators will be able to track down who left the propaganda on the US bases:

U.S. Forces Korea is warning servicemembers on the peninsula to stay alert to potential insider threats after North Korean propaganda appeared on American bases.

The 8th Army reported that propaganda leaflets were discovered at Seoul’s Yongsan Garrison Thursday, shortly after a North Korean soldier defected across the heavily fortified border just north of the South Korean capital.

In an alert posted later that day on USFK’s Facebook page, officials said a significant number of North Korean propaganda leaflets and CDs had been placed at strategic locations on multiple U.S. military installations in South Korea.  [Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link, but I would not be surprised if the propaganda was left by a sympathetic South Korean leftist with base access instead of a North Korean spy.

America Preparing "Bloody Nose" Military Attack On North Korea: Telegraph | Zero Hedge https://t.co/pxXpfOgv6d

— NorthKoreaRealTime (@BuckTurgidson79) December 20, 2017

Yet another North Korean soldier has defected across the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) and this time it was not as dramatic as the November defection at the JSA:

A North Korean soldier defected to South Korea across the mid-western border Thursday, according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS).

“A low-ranking soldier defected to our GP (guard post) across the mid-western border at 8:04 a.m.,” a JCS official said, asking not to be named.

The latest defection came about 40 days after another North Korean soldier fled to the South through the Joint Security Area (JSA) at the truce village of Panmunjeom.

The JCS said the GP occupants identified the soldier coming toward the South through surveillance equipment, adding that the soldier carried an AK-47 assault rifle.

“Relevant bodies will conduct an investigation into how and why the soldier defected to the South,” the official said.

No shots were exchanged between the two Koreas during the soldier’s defection; but South Korean troops fired 20 warning rounds from K-3 machine guns at 9:24 a.m. when North Korean border guards approached the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) while searching for the soldier who defected.

“The North’s border guards stopped approaching the MDL after our warning shots,” the official said.

At 10:13 a.m. and 10:16 a.m., shots were heard from the North, but there was no damage on the South Korean side, the official added.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but I would not be surprised if the shots heard from the North were executions of the officers responsible for the soldier who defected.  The same thing happened after the Russian student defected during the 1984 JSA Shootout.

This defection is the fourth this year by a North Korean soldier.  Prior to these defections there were four defections of North Korean soldiers in the past 5 years.

Coincidentally on the same day two North Korean fishermen defected across the East Sea as well.  They were picked up to the north of Dokdo.  That makes 15 North Korean defections this year across the DMZ or maritime border compared to 5 last year.  The numbers may be up this year of defecting across the border, but the numbers are still too low to draw any hard conclusions.  I guess we will see what happens in 2018.

The Venerable Pomnyun Sunim is a Buddhist monk who has done aid work inside of North Korea.  He believes based off his experience and history of North Korea that China is not the answer to resolving the current nuclear issue:

Today, the North Korean leadership considers China to be the primary threat to regime survival. Despite paying lip service to their alliance, the Kim dynasty cannot afford to have any forces within the regime answer to foreign governments, especially China with its huge influence on North Korea’s viability.

This has always been the case. In August 1956, Kim Il Sung purged people he suspected of seeking to overthrow him with backing from the Chinese Communist Party. Soon afterward, Kim forced Mao Zedong to remove all remaining Chinese military presence — which had saved him during the Korean War — from North Korea.

His son, Kim Jong-il, was also quoted as saying that the Chinese should never be trusted. This underlying mistrust seems to be the reason behind the death of Jang Song-thaek and Kim Jong-nam, both of whom were suspected as China’s potential alternatives to the current leadership.

As such, allowing Chinese pressure, whether economic or political, to dictate the terms of North Korea’s national security goes against the country’s fundamental nature and self-interest of the current regime. A nation founded on anti-imperialism simply cannot allow an imperial power, even a nominally friendly one, to interfere in its own affairs.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link, but I would say that most people that closely follow the North Korean nuclear issue know that China is not the answer because the status quo is in their national interest.  However, before other options are executed the US government has a responsibility to try all diplomatic angles which working with the Chinese is one of those options even if expectations are low of it working.

North Korea’s women national football team is congratulated in high fanfare on returning to Pyongyang on Dec. 19, 2017, after winning a regional championship in this photo from the North’s Korean Central News Agency. The team won the 2017 East Asian Football Federation E-1 Football Championship with a perfect record of three wins against South Korea, Japan and China. (Yonhap)

I expect the engagement crowd will say that the Kim regime doesn’t really mean what they say:

North Korea on Tuesday rejected U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s latest proposal for dialogue without preconditions, saying that it has no interest in Washington’s scheme to make it give up its nuclear program.

Tillerson said last week that the U.S. is ready to begin talks with North Korea “without preconditions” in a possible shift of U.S. policy. But days later, he said that the North should halt its “threatening behavior” before talks can begin, backpedaling on his previous remarks.

The Rodong Sinmun, the mouthpiece of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK), said that nothing has changed in its stance of pursuing nuclear weapons, regardless of whether Washington has offered talks without strings attached.

“The U.S. is trying to shift responsibility for tensions on the Korean Peninsula to us with its dialogue offensive,” the newspaper said in a commentary. “The move is seen as being intended to set the tone for manipulating new U.N. Security Council resolutions that may include a maritime blockade if we do not accept dialogue aimed at discussing the abandonment of our nuclear weapons.”

North Korea made it clear that it will not put its nuclear weapons and missiles on the negotiation table if the U.S. does not ditch its hostile policy toward Pyongyang.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but I believe in believing what the Kim regime says.  It is pretty clear they only want to talk if the US ditches its hostile policies.  What that means is that the Kim regime wants the sanctions to go away and a peace treaty to be offered as part of negotiations.  This basically rewards the regime for bad behavior before the talks have even begun.  From their perspective this strategy has worked in the past and I guess they figure at some point the Trump administration will reward them as well.

I guess we will see where this leads, but Key Resolve is the joint military exercise that typically happens every March which would be the month after the Pyeongchang Olympics held in February 2018:

South Korea and the United States may consider postponing their joint military exercise as part of efforts to reduce tension and invite North Korea to the Winter Olympic Games to be held in South Korea, South Korean President Moon Jae-in said Tuesday.

Moon, however, said the move really depends on the way North Korea behaves.

“It is possible for South Korea and the U.S. to review the possibility of postponing the exercises. I have made such a suggestion to the U.S. and the U.S is currently reviewing it. However, all this depends on how North Korea behaves,” he said in an interview with U.S. broadcaster NBC on Tuesday (local time).  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

The United States concludes that North Korea was behind the WannaCry computer worm that affected more than 230,000 computers in over 150 countries earlier this year. https://t.co/CaeeFgvohg

— Anna Fifield (@annafifield) December 19, 2017