Tag: North Korea

Here is one theory on what the Kim regime is attempting accomplish with its offer of talks with South Korea over its attendance at the upcoming Winter Olympic games:

But perhaps Kim is a smarter student of the cutthroat game of geopolitics than we give him credit for—seeking to delay a showdown on terms more favorable to him. What if Kim keeps the talks focused on his nation’s participation at the games—and asks for nothing in return?

If talks go smoothly and North Korea does indeed join the games he appears like a winner back home, having secured his nation’s place at the Winter Games. He could even send his sister, Kim Yo Jong, as the lead representative.

Kim could even score another PR victory: imagine athletes from a divided Korea marching into the Olympic stadium together under a unified flag—with members of the Trump family sitting in the same stadium looking on. With there being almost no downside to this for Kim, I would argue this is very likely what North Korea is banking on.

And here is where Kim could get quite slick. He could leverage the positive nature of the talks to propose many other sweeteners to enhance inter-Korean ties—restarting joint development projects, offering family reunifications and even going so far to propose an inter-Korean summit between the two heads of state. This would occur of course while not talking to the Trump Administration—and quite on purpose, dodging key questions about Kim’s nuclear weapons and missile programs. Negotiations would move slowly—with North Korea adding to its list of demands over time, but not quite sabotaging the talks. Negotiations seem to start to drag on, but overall, there is hope—just what Kim is wants.  [Harry J. Kazianis – Center for the National Interest]

You can read the rest at the link, but the analysis continues that eventually the Kim regime will restart missile tests while the negotiations continue.  The restarting of the missile tests is to perfect the reentry technology they have yet to master.  The talks will buy them time to do this which they may otherwise not have under the current dynamic of possible military action from the US.  With ongoing negotiations the ROK may not support any US military action in response to continued testing.  This has the potential of driving a wedge in the US-ROK alliance if the two allies do not agree with how to respond to renewed testing.

Here is what will be discussed and who will be discussing it at this week’s inter-Korean talks:

South Korea will seek to discuss ways to ease military tensions and reunite divided families during this week’s high-level talks with North Korea, Seoul’s chief delegate said Monday.

Unification Minister Cho Myoung-gyon made the remarks one day before South and North Korea will hold their first formal talks in more than two years to discuss the North’s potential participation in the PyeongChang Winter Olympics and ways to improve their ties.

“Basically, the two sides will focus on the Olympics. When discussing inter-Korean relations, the government will seek to raise the issue of war-torn families and ways to ease military tensions,” Cho told a group of reporters.

Cho will lead a five-member government delegation to the first inter-Korean dialogue since December 2015. The North’s chief negotiator is Ri Son-gwon, the chairman of North Korea’s state agency in charge of affairs with the South.

The South’s delegation also includes Vice Unification Minister Chun Hae-sung, who has a range of experience in inter-Korean talks. It will be the first time that the country’s top point man on unification and the vice minister are included together in a delegation.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but what is interesting is that the North Korean lead representative Ri Son-gwon is the long time aid of North Korean General Kim Yong-chol.  Kim is believed to have been the person who planned the sinking of the ROK Naval vessel the Cheonan and shelled Yeonpyeong island in 2010.

The selection of RI as a negotiator makes me wonder if he was specifically chosen to remind the ROK negotiators that if the Kim regime does not get what they want from the talks more Cheonan and Yeonpyeong island attacks could happen during the Winter Olympics.

Here is what President Trump had to say about the planned talks between North and South Korea in regards to the upcoming Winter Olympics:

Kim “knows I’m not messing around. I’m not messing around, not even a little bit, not even 1 percent. He understands that,” Trump said.

The Washington Post is not happy that the US is not participating in talks with North Korea and the ROK and has thus declared that the President is now irrelevant:

But whatever happens, it does look like U.S. policy on North Korea is rubbing up against the limitations of Trump’s unilateralist view of the world — what Evan Osnos of the New Yorker recently dubbed “retreating from the front.” When Seoul-Pyongyang talks go ahead next week, Trump will be in an unusual position — watching from afar, having capitulated on one key North Korean demand.

The Trump administration had hoped to further isolate North Korea on the world stage. Thanks to Trump’s brash tactics, though, it may be the United States that ends up on the outside.  [Washington Post]

First of all, President Trump did not capitulate on the delay of the Key Resolve exercise.  North Korea wants joint exercises cancelled and so does the Chinese.  The US did not cancel the exercise, they delayed the exercise at the request of the ROK who did not want it to overlap with the Winter Olympics especially if the North Koreans decide to attend.  The exercise is still going to happen just like it does every year and thus there has been no capitulation.

As far as “retreating from the front” and claims of unilateralism, these critics of the President must be living in an alternate reality.  The Trump administration has arguably pursued more multilateral measures than past Presidents.  The Trump administration has aggressively pursued and implemented United Nations sanctions on North Korea.  The Treasury Department has aggressively worked with international partners to target the Kim regimes finances through the global banking system.  They have also worked with other countries to kick out North Korean diplomats often responsible for bringing in foreign currency to the regime.  Unprecedented pressure has also been put on China by the US to faithfully implement sanctions on North Korea.  US intelligence has worked with the ROK to seize ships smuggling oil into North Korea.

Just because the US is not sitting at the table with the ROKs and the North Koreans to discuss a delegation attending the Olympics does not mean US policy is unilateral and the Trump administration has made themselves irrelevant.

I am glad to see someone else is bringing up the long held viewpoint I have shared in regards to North Korean participation in the Olympics:

In the 1960s through the ‘80s, the international community was appalled by South Africa’s apartheid regime and thus banned the country from participating in Olympics.

But in response to North Korea’s far more egregious human rights violations—which the United Nations has ruled to be “crimes against humanity”—the world allows and even encourages Pyongyang to participate.

Why the double standard?

The international community has long tried, and failed, to moderate North Korean behavior and bring about political and economic reform by asking Pyongyang to participate in sporting and other cultural events. Yet with each new attempt, optimists breathlessly anticipate that this time, the appeasement will work.

The 2000 Sydney Olympics was one such example. Taking place only six months after the historic first inter-Korean summit, the sight of North and South Korean athletes walking together behind a non-national unification flag was uplifting and a sign of hope.

Yet behind the scenes, North Korea had demanded and received a secret payment from Seoul, along with payment for the North’s uniforms, and agreement that the North’s delegation would not be outnumbered by the South’s. This prevented many South Korean athletes and coaches from marching into the stadium as part of the Korean entourage.

An inspiring sight to be sure, but as with visits by symphonies and other cultural and sporting envoys, this gesture failed to alter North Korea’s policies and real-world behavior.

Similarly, other attempts at sports diplomacy at events in South Korea—including the 2002 Asian Games, the 2003 University Games, the 2005 Asian Athletics Championship, and the 2014 Asian Games—all failed to improve inter-Korean relations. In 1987, Pyongyang downed a civilian airliner in an attempt to disrupt the 1988 Seoul Olympics.

But as the world seeks to isolate and pressure North Korea for its repeated violations of United Nations resolutions, it should ask itself: Why is Pyongyang still allowed to participate in the Olympics, but South Africa was shunned?  [Bruce Klingner]

You can read much more at the link, but most of the world and the IOC fought to keep Apartheid South Africa out of the Olympics, but North Korea a country with a far worse human rights record and a threat to world peace has South Korea and the IOC literally begging them to participate.

This double standard is something that I wish President Trump would Tweet about.

China says it will limit oil, refined product exports to North Korea https://t.co/qqdET2SPDi

— NorthKoreaRealTime (@BuckTurgidson79) January 5, 2018

This photo taken from North Korea’s Central TV Station on Jan. 4, 2018, shows Pyongyangites holding a mass rally at Kim Il-sung Square to express their resolution to carry out the important tasks advanced by respected leader Kim Jong-un in his New Year’s Day address. (Yonhap)

It looks like US National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster has been reading analysis on One Free Korea in regards to why North Korea is really developing their nuclear weapons and currently pursuing talks with South Korea:

U.S. President Donald Trump’s National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster said Tuesday the purpose of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s New Year address was to “try to drive a wedge” between Seoul and Washington.

That assessment of Kim’s 40-minute speech was in stark contrast to that of the Blue House. President Moon Jae-in’s Spokesman Park Soo-hyun said Monday his office “welcomed” Kim’s overture about sending a delegation to the PyeongChang Winter Olympics, set to kick off next month in Gangwon.

Park made no mention of Kim’s threatening the United States with a nuclear attack in the address.

U.S. Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley said Tuesday in New York that her country is “not going to recognize” or “acknowledge” any talks other countries have with the North unless the regime agrees to foreswear its nuclear weapons program.

Asked by Greta Van Susteren, a contributor for the Voice of America (VOA), about Kim’s Olympic gesture to South Korea, McMaster replied: “Anybody who thought that the speech was reassuring was drinking too much champagne over the holidays…..he is building a hair-trigger nuclear force that can place the world at risk.”

McMaster continued that it was “pretty clear” Kim was trying to separate Seoul and Washington, but, “Of course, that’s not going [to] happen. His provocative actions, what he’s been doing, is driving our alliances closer together.”

The security adviser explained that the “only reason” why North Korea was developing weapons was to “coerce or blackmail or extort the United States to leave the peninsula and Northeast Asia.”

Beyond that, he continued, it wants to unify the two Koreas under its own “failed system.”  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link, but there is a false belief that North Korea is solely pursuing nuclear weapons for regime survival when the regime has survived just fine for decades with the threat of a massive artillery strike on Seoul.  It is very arguable that the ultimate goal of the North’s nuclear weapons program is to co-opt the ROK into a confederation on North Korean terms.

We won’t get fooled again
Me: Wanna bet? https://t.co/8pf8QOkzQV

— Joshua Stanton (@freekorea_us) January 3, 2018

Here is what the USFK commander General Brooks had to say about North Korea’s recent overtures:

The commanding general of the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) on Thursday stressed the importance of combat readiness and unity among regional powers to cope with North Korea’s recent peace offensive.

“We can be generally pleased by the recent overtures that happened. But we must keep our expectations at the appropriate level,” Gen. Vincent K. Brooks, who leads the 28,500-strong U.S. Forces Korea (USFK), said at a lecture in Seoul.

He was referring to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s New Year’s Day statement that his country is willing to join the Winter Olympics that will open in the South Korean town of PyeongChang next month. He proposed immediate inter-Korean dialogue to discuss the issue.

In a follow-up move, the two Koreas reconnected a cross-border communication channel Wednesday, two years after it was severed, and are preparing to hold high-level talks.

It represents Pyongyang’s “sincere” pursuit of reconciliation, but it may be in line with its typical strategy to keep apart five countries — South Korea, the U.S., China, Japan and Russia — aimed at weakening their power against the regime trying to win the status of a “nuclear capable” nation.

“We can’t ignore that reality,” the command emphasized during the session at Seoul Cyber University, organized by the National Unification Advisory Council, a presidential consultative body mainly on long-term inter-Korean ties.

In the face of the North’s peace gesture, he said, it’s important for South Korea and the U.S. to maintain an “ironclad and razor sharp” alliance and joint combat readiness in the event that it leads to a “negative outcome, not a positive outcome.”

He likened North Korea to the center of a palm and the five regional powers to five fingers, showing his right hand.

The North wants these five fingers to be separated but they should operate in “harmony and closely connected to one another” as a fist to create necessary pressure to cause a change in its course, he added. [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but I think the problem with General Brooks analogy is that two of the fingers have no intention of being part of the fist, Russia and China.  It is arguable they share the same strategic objective of the Kim regime to separate the US from the ROK.