Also, how can anyone describe an admirer of Kim Il-sung as a "democracy activist?" https://t.co/YWy2IWpUKS It would be accurate to say he sought to replace an authoritarian system with a totalitarian one. Left unsaid is whether he still supports the totalitarian system.
Here is what ROK Drop favorite Bruce Klingner says should happen after the conclusion of the Winter Olympics:
Kim Yo Jong, sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s nominal head of state Kim Yong Nam, Thomas Bach, President of the International Olympic Committee, and South Korean President Moon Jae-in watch an Olympic hockey game in Gangneung, South Korea on Feb. 10, 2018. (Felipe Dana / Associated Press)
Seoul worries that Washington won’t risk Los Angeles for Seoul, but that it would trade Seoul for Los Angeles. Concern is so acute in South Korea, in fact, that Moon thought it necessary to declare: “There cannot be any military action on the Korean Peninsula without a prior consent of the Republic of Korea.”
All this fear could lead to discord between the United States and South Korea, something that in turn could be exploitable by Pyongyang. The North’s participation in the Winter Olympics, which highlighted common Korean themes, is part of Kim’s campaign to drive a wedge between the allies.
If it plays a high-stakes game of brinkmanship, the United States will paint itself into a corner. By defining the completion of North Korea’s ICBM program as an intolerable and strike-inducing event, the Trump administration would be drawing a red line it is not necessarily prepared to hold.
Eventually, every poker player must deliver on their bet, or be revealed as a bluffer. If the United States comes out looking like a bluffer, American credibility will be gravely eroded.
We are now closer to a war on the Korean Peninsula than at any point since 1994. The Trump administration should avoid both a premature return to negotiations and a reckless preventive attack. Instead, it should respond to the growing threat by seriously pursuing its policy of “maximum pressure.” [LA Times]
You can read more at the link, but I think it is arguable that all the talk of a preemptive strike is part of the “maximum pressure” strategy. The US government is putting everyone on notice that if maximum pressure does not work because other countries are not complying than the preemptive strike is an option that will be used instead.
Pak Il-chol of North Korea competes in the men’s 15km cross-country skiing event of the PyeongChang Winter Olympics at Alpensia Cross-Country Skiing Centre in PyeongChang, east of Seoul, on Feb. 16, 2018. He finished 107th among 116 contestants who completed the race. (Yonhap)
The upcoming decision to me is pretty clear, what does the Moon administration value more, continued appeasement of the Kim regime or maintaining the readiness of US and ROK military forces?:
President Moon Jae-in is facing a growing dilemma over South Korea’s planned military exercises with the United States, with North Korea offering a rare gesture for warmer inter-Korean relations.
On Monday, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, in a meeting with its highest-ranking delegation which returned to Pyongyang Sunday after ending their three-day trip to the PyeongChang Winter Olympics, ordered the regime to elevate the ongoing peaceful bilateral relationship with the South,.
The uncommon sign for reconciliation is raising the likelihood for a possible inter-Korean summit this year.
This is in line with President Moon’s North Korean policy under which he has underlined the need for holding enough dialogue to stop Pyongyang’s provocative military threats.
However, the South Korean government is likely to face a bumpy road ahead on the matter, as Seoul and Washington plan to resume their annual joint military exercise sometime in April. They delayed the drills – which normally take place around late February to early March – until after the Winter Olympics.
The South Korea-U.S. drills have for years drawn a strong backlash from North Korea. The Pentagon has in recent weeks reaffirmed its willingness to stage the drills right after the closing of the PyeongChang Paralympics in mid-March. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but either way Kim Jong-un has set him self up to win because if the joint exercise is cancelled he advances his agenda of separating the US from the ROK. If the joint exercise is executed he then uses that as an excuse to continue missile and maybe even nuclear testing.
Regardless of the decision I would expect that Pyongyang will still push for the inter-Korea summit with the South just likely on different timetables. The Kim regime needs the inter-Korean summit in order to get their payday of reopening the Kaesong Industrial Park and the joint tourism ventures in North Korea. These ventures will help them skirt international sanctions to maintain revenue flowing into the regime.
Admiral Harris seems to understand what the Kim regime’s ultimate goal of their nuclear weapon’s program is:
This file photo shows U.S. Pacific Command chief Adm. Harry Harris. (Yonhap)
A top U.S. military commander said Wednesday he believes North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is intent on reunifying the Korean Peninsula under a single, communist system.
Adm. Harry Harris, chief of the U.S. Pacific Command, told a congressional hearing he does not agree with the predominant view that Kim is pursuing nuclear-tipped missiles to safeguard his regime only.
Kim is “after reunification under a single, communist system,” Harris told the House Armed Services Committee, adding that is the “long view.”
The North Korean leader’s nuclear ambitions contribute to that view and help him blackmail countries such as South Korea and the U.S., the commander said. And Washington should continue to increase economic and diplomatic sanctions on Pyongyang under its “maximum pressure” campaign to persuade Kim to abandon his nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs. [Yonhap]
None of these attacks led to a retaliatory strike because of their conventional capabilities were an effective deterrent. So clearly there is more to why they want to develop nuclear weapons so aggressively. The theory that makes the most sense is that the true intention of their nuclear program is to separate the US from South Korea and then seek a confederation on North Korean terms.
The New York Times has an interesting article published about the unsurprisingly tight controls put on the North Korean cheerleading squad that has been one of the media highlights of the Winter Olympics:
They are under tight control, entering and exiting the arenas staging the world’s biggest sporting event with minders who shield them from any interaction with strangers. In this very public bubble, they have been the source of endless, intense curiosity. And in their sheer numbers and with the surreal scenes they have created, they have garnered a level of attention — in competition venues and in the news media — that would make most Olympic athletes envious.
“This is another part of their charm-and-peace offensive,” said Duyeon Kim, a visiting senior fellow at the Korean Peninsula Future Forum. “If you look at the big numbers, that’s a spectacle.”
For all the scrutiny they have garnered, little is known about the cheerleaders.
On Monday, the squad rode for an hour and a half in eight buses — accompanied by six police cars — from a remote resort at the Inje Speedium, a racetrack complex in Inje County, along the foothills of Mount Sorak.
The cheer squad is occupying 108 condominium units there, with two people sharing a room in most cases, according to Kim Tae-eun, a spokesman for the Inje Speedium. There are 21 North Korean reporters staying in rooms there, too. Most units have two televisions with network and satellite channels available, Kim said.
The cheerleaders have been eating their meals in one of the ballrooms of the adjacent hotel, about 100 meters from their accommodations, Kim said. The women arrived for meals in staggered groups of 30 or so, with two older male chaperones accompanying each group. They enter the ballroom in neat, double-file lines, and when they are finished eating they line up again for the two-minute walk back to their rooms.
Such military precision has been one of the visual hallmarks of their visit this month. At the stadium on Monday, the North Koreans carried identical bags with cheering props, including the white-and-blue unification flag. They wore matching red snowsuits — which swished loudly as they walked in packs — and white sneakers that looked vaguely similar to Adidas. They yelled slogans about unity and sang old Korean folk tunes.
The North Koreans do not make a move without at least one other compatriot and a South Korean government monitor. Trips to the restroom before and after the hockey game, for instance, took place in groups. And the older North Korean men chaperoning the squad who left the stadium during the game for cigarette breaks did so in groups of three. [New York Times]
You can read the rest at the link, but could you imagine the political problem for the Moon administration if one of these cheerleaders was able to defect?
Here is how scholar Michael Madden interprets a recent picture of Kim Jong-un with the North Korean delegation that recently returned from the Winter Olympics:
Hiding the notebooks behind their backs and thus clasping their hands in the Supreme Leader’s presence would be interpreted as highly disrespectful.
On the other hand, there could be a degree of spontaneity. Perhaps, meeting done, the photo session was impromptu and Mr Choe and Mr Ri did not have time to put their notebooks down.
We don’t know if the meeting was lubricated with wine toasts or liquors. Choe Hwi is relaxed and bemused, while Ri Son-gwon (being a former military intelligence officer) almost cracks a smile, in contrast to the fairly tense expression he wore throughout the weekend in the South.
Closer to Mr Kim, we find Kim Yong-nam holding hands with the North Korean leader.
There is an act of respect and deference on Kim Jong-un’s part as he is the one holding Kim Yong-nam’s arm.
On Kim Jong-un’s other side, again in an act of respect, Kim Yo-jong clutches her brother’s arm, like other officials that are subordinate to him. The Supreme Leader, when we look closely at his face, is amused at the whole scene. There is a subtle transparency here. (……)
The recently released photo is intended to show the more relaxed, freewheeling aspects of the North’s top leadership. It softens some of the sharp edges and shows a youthful leader so confident in his role and position in the regime that he is ready to deal with the South. [BBC]
