Tag: North Korea

That is what this article in the Politico suggests that President Trump is planning to do:

Taking Trump at his word during the campaign—when he decried U.S. allies Japan and South Korea as ungrateful free-riders—it would be reasonable to conclude that Trump is willing to forsake U.S. allies in the region by getting Kim to agree to negotiate away his ICBMs but ultimately leave Kim with a regional nuclear strike capability. Nuclear scholars have worried that a North Korean ICBM capability would “decouple” the United States from South Korea—the question of whether America would trade Seattle for Seoul in a nuclear conflict is a rhetorical one. We know the answer. The irony of a nuclear deal between Kim and Trump may actually be that true decoupling will happen when North Korea retains only the ability to strike U.S. allies but not the United States. Kim can simultaneously give a nod in the direction of denuclearization, remove the imminent threat to the U.S. homeland posed by his ICBMs, and expand a wedge between the United States and its allies.  [Politico]

You can read more at the link, but considering that President Trump has stressed denuclearization repeatedly he would have a hard time agreeing to allowing North Korea to keep nuclear weapons that they can use to strike an ally like Japan and US bases in the region.

This is why North Korea likes to detain Americans, they make great bargaining chips when negotiations like the ones going on now happen:

The U.S. government is looking into reports that three Americans detained in North Korea have been relocated from a labor camp to a hotel near Pyongyang ahead of a planned summit between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, a U.S. official said on Wednesday.

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said there was no immediate confirmation of any change in the detainees’ status. Trump administration officials have pressed for their release as a show of goodwill by North Korea before the unprecedented U.S.-North Korea summit expected in late May or early June.

“As everybody is aware, the past Administration has long been asking for three hostages to be released from a North Korean Labor camp, but to no avail. Stay tuned!” Trump said in a Twitter post late on Wednesday.

CNN, in a report on Thursday, cited an unnamed source saying the release of the three men was imminent, adding that the groundwork for the move came two months ago when North Korea’s foreign minister traveled to Sweden and proposed the idea.

South Korean media reports on Wednesday quoted a South Korean activist as saying North Korea had relocated the three Americans from a labor camp to a hotel on the outskirts of Pyongyang. Choi Soung-yong, the activist, told Reuters that Kim Hak-song, Tony Kim and Kim Dong-chul were moved in early April following instructions from superior authorities, citing residents in Pyongyang.  [Reuters]

You can read more at the link, but despite a clear risk of being a long term detainee for committing the smallest of offenses, we will probably continue to see Americans in future go over to North Korea and get detained.

I totally agree with Dr. Lankov that the recent Kim-Moon Inter-Korean Summit was more marketing and hype than actual substance:

It was, frankly, quite striking to see the tidal wave of unwarranted optimism in South Korean media that accompanied the April 27 summit.

To be more precise, this tidal wave began to rise shortly before the summit actually took place, and reached a truly remarkable level after its (modest and predictable) results were announced.

To a very large extent, this optimism has been deliberately manufactured by the South Korean bureaucracy. The Moon administration has spared no expense creating the impression that a historical breakthrough was made at Panmunjom.

These marketing efforts are eagerly supported by left-leaning media outlets, with the Hankyoreh Sinmun and Kyonghyang Sinmun being arguably the most vocal participants in this state-led enthusiasm building campaign.  (…………)

One op-ed author, for example, assured his readers that in the near future, they will be able to take “the unification train” from Busan all the way to Moscow and Paris.

Another contributor shared his dreams about hiking in the North Korean mountains and buying freshly boiled corn from locals and assured readers that now, after this supposed breakthrough, these dreams are certainly about to come true very soon.

It has even been suggested that the architects of this supposed breakthrough should be considered as candidates for the Nobel Peace Prize.

These flood of naivety and self-imposed amnesia might sound comical, but there are good reasons why the Moon administration is working so hard to manufacture this optimism and to maintain it at a sufficiently high level.  [NK News]

You can read more at the link, but the Moon administration is building this hype like I have previously posted about, to influence President Trump during his upcoming summit with Kim Jong-un.  They need to get Trump on board with the Great Charade of 2018 and get him to also pretend that things are going to be different this time and that the North Koreans really do mean to denuclearize.

Rebuilding Kim’s image with the Inter-Korean Summit was part of this effort.  The upcoming demolition of the nuclear test site will be the next dramatic optic of little substance that will happen before the Kim-Trump summit.  If President Trump sticks to his demands of denuclearization with strict inspections before dropping sanctions than the Great Charade of 2018 will likely implode and Moon will likely blame Trump for its failure instead of the real source of the peninsula’s problems, Kim Jong-un.

This would explain why Kim Jong-un made the unusual public appearance of sorrow after the tragic bus accident in North Korea that killed 32 Chinese tourists:

Chinese communist revolutionary Mao Zedong’s only grandson Mao Xinyu was possibly killed in a bus crash in North Korea in April that killed over 30 Chinese, according to a report from French radio.

Xinyu, the son of Mao Zedong’s second son Anqing who died fighting in the Korean War, was possibly one of 32 Chinese tourists who died when a bus fell from a bridge in North Hwanghae Province, Radio France Internationale’s Chinese version reported on April 30, citing a Chinese source.

The report said Xinyu, a Major General in the People’s Liberation Army of China, and most of the other Chinese tourists were the children of Chinese soldiers who fought in the Korean War.

The accident also killed four North Koreans.

The tourists died reportedly on their way back from a cemetery in Hoechang County in South Pyongan Province that was for Chinese soldiers who died during the Korean War. Mao Zedong’s eldest son Anying was buried there, which leads to the supposition Xinyu could have visited the cemetery to pay tribute to his uncle.

If it is true that Xinyu was among the dead, two direct descendants of Mao Zedong have perished on the Korean Peninsula.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.

To me it appears that President Moon Jae-in is attempting to play to President Trump’s ego:

South Korea’s president said Monday that his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump deserves a Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to end the crisis over North Korea’s nuclear weapons.

Moon Jae-in made the comments during a Cabinet meeting three days after his momentous summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

“President Trump should win the Nobel Peace Prize. The only thing we need is peace,” he said in remarks confirmed by the presidential office.

Trump is planning to hold his own summit with Kim in coming weeks, although the venue and date have not been announced.  [Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link, but if the North Koreans do not commit to real denuclearization President Trump could sink the entire facade that is going on right now.  President Moon may be hoping that the possibility of winning a Nobel Peace Prize just like Trump’s rival Barack Obama did, may be enough to get him to play along with the current facade as well.  Time will tell and we will all just have to wait and see what happens.

Here is yet another example of something that Kim Jong-un is doing to create the perception that he really wants to have peace on the Korean peninsula:

He also agreed to unify the time zones used in South and North Korea, where Seoul is 30 minutes ahead of Pyongyang.

“I feel sad to see that there are two clocks hung on the wall of the Peace House, one for Seoul time and the other for Pyongyang time,” he said. “Since it is us who changed the time standard, we will return to the original one. You can make it public.”  [Yonhap]

Much like with the closing of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site, this decision to use the same time zone as South Korea is easily reversible at a time of the Kim regime’s choosing.  They have so far done nothing that is non-reversible and a clear sign of their intent to denuclearize.

US intelligence agrees with the assessment that Punggye-ri is still usable despite a report saying that it collapsed
https://t.co/fnTA9oXbAe

— 38 North (@38NorthNK) April 29, 2018

Kim Jong-un is taking a play out of his father’s denuclearization playbook with his announcement that he will seal the shafts at this nuclear test site:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has promised to dismantle a “northern” nuclear test site in May in full view of experts and journalists from South Korea and the United States, Cheong Wa Dae said on Sunday.

Kim made the promise during talks with South Korean President Moon Jae-in on Friday, the president’s top press secretary Yoon Young-chan said.

Kim said the site is still “usable” and “there are two more shafts that are bigger than the one (to be dismantled) which are sturdy,” according to Yoon.

Kim did not specify the location of the site to be dismantled, but given the North’s past announcement, it is believed to be in Gilju, North Hamgyong Province. On April 21, Kim declared the shutdown of the Gilju site, along with a freeze on missile and nuclear tests.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but when I read this I though immediately back to 2008 when Kim Jong-il blew up a cooling tower at it Yongbyon nuclear plant:

In a gesture demonstrating its commitment to halt its nuclear weapons program, North Korea blew up the most prominent symbol of its plutonium production Friday.

The 60 foot, or 18meter, cooling tower at North Korea’s main nuclear power plant collapsed in a heap of shattered concrete and twisted steel, filmed by international and regional television broadcasters invited to witness the event.

The destruction of the tower, the most visible element of the nuclear complex at Yongbyon, about 100 kilometers, or 60 miles north of Pyongyang, bore witness to the incremental progress that has been made in U.S.-led multilateral efforts to end North Korea’s nuclear weapons programs.  [NY Times, June 27, 2008]

The North Koreans eventually rebuilt the cooling tower and reopened the Yongbyon nuclear facility in 2013.  As little as two months ago satellite imagery showed the plant producing plutonium.  Much like with the destruction of the cooling tower, the sealing of shafts at their Punggye-ri nuclear test site is easily reversible at a time of the Kim regime’s choosing.  However, when this event happens most of the international media and Korean leftists will once again seize on the dramatic images this is sure to bring as evidence that the Kim regime really means to denuclearize this time.

I will know Kim Jong-un means to denuclearize when the entire Yongbyon plant is demolished and his nuclear weapons and material are removed from the country.  Until this happens everyone is just continuing to play along with this great facade which the closure of the nuclear test site will be another part of.

Here is already possibly billions in investment dollars to upgrade North Korea’s infrastructure for the little to nothing the Kim regime has tangibly offered in return:

The historic inter-Korean summit is raising hopes for cooperation on social overhead capital (SOC) projects as the leaders of South and North Korea agreed on Friday to link cross-border roads and railways.

In the joint statement released by South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un after their summit, the two Koreas agreed to push forward the SOC projects agreed upon by late South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun and late North Korean leader Kim Jong-il in 2007 for balanced growth and joint prosperity on the Korean Peninsula.

As part of the first step, Seoul and Pyongyang agreed to connect cross-border roads and railways and upgrade the existing infrastructure, the two sides said.

The plan includes taking practical steps to utilize the Gyeongui railway, which links Shinuiju, a city on the Korean Peninsula’s border with China, and Seoul.

During the summit talks, Moon said if the railroad is connected with the North, both South and North Korea can make use of trains in the future. Kim praised the quality of the railway that connects Seoul and PyeongChang, the site of the 2018 Winter Olympic Games in February.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

It looks like the Moon administration is about to surrender sovereignty of their side of the NLL to the Kim regime:

The leaders of South and North Korea agreed Friday to establish a peace and cooperation zone on their disputed western sea border, a move that could prevent future clashes.

The disputed sea demarcation line, which Seoul has enforced, has been the scene of two deadly naval clashes between the two Koreas since 1999.

On Friday, South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un held a historic summit at the border village of Panmunjom and agreed to turn the area into a special region that can be used safety by both sides.

The agreement could also potentially allow South and North Korean fishermen to jointly operate their boats in the area while allowing maritime authorities crack down on illegal Chinese fishing.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but this is the same area where repeated attacks by the North Koreans have been executed against the ROK.  In effort to appease North Korean aggression, the Moon administration is proposing giving up sovereignty of South Korean territory to the North Koreans to fish.

So why do the North Koreans want the NLL changed?  Well this map shows why:

The prior proposed joint fishing areas on the NLL nearly mirror what North Korea claims to be their ocean waters.  The giving up of sovereignty of this maritime territory will make it harder to defend the South Korean islands along the NLL.  Such an agreement would also set a precedent that the Kim regime’s claim against the legitimacy of the NLL is valid.  The last time a South Korean leftist government tried to give away the NLL the ROK Defense Ministry was furious.  It will be interesting to see how they respond this time to this news.