Major Gen. Kim Do-gyun (R), South Korea’s chief delegate, and his North Korean counterpart Lt, Gen. An Ik-san shake hands at the start of inter-Korean military talks at the truce village of Panmunjom on July 31, 2018. It is the second such talks since the April 27 inter-Korean summit, aimed at implementing agreements from the summit. (Pool photo) (Yonhap)
Via a reader tip comes news that the US media is trying to make big news out of the fact that the North Koreans are continuing to develop missiles:
U.S. spy agencies are seeing signs that North Korea is constructing new missiles at a factory that produced the country’s first intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the United States, according to officials familiar with the intelligence.
Newly obtained evidence, including satellite photos taken in recent weeks, indicates that work is underway on at least one and possibly two liquid-fueled ICBMs at a large research facility in Sanumdong, on the outskirts of Pyongyang, according to the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe classified intelligence. [MSN]
I don’t know why anyone would consider this big news? The North Koreans never agreed to stop missile development. The only thing agreed to was to work towards denuclearization. The definition of what denuclearization means is still be negotiated.
Not everyone is surprised by this news though:
Several U.S. officials and private analysts said the continued activity inside North Korea’s weapons complex is not surprising, given that Kim made no public promise at the summit to halt work at the scores of nuclear and missiles facilities scattered around the country.
The North Koreans “never agreed to give up their nuclear program,” said Ken Gause, a North Korea expert at the Center for Naval Analysis. And it is foolish to expect that they would do so — at the outset of talks, he said.
Mr. Gausse may be right about this not be surprising, but here is where I believe he makes an incorrect assessment:
“Regime survival and perpetuation of Kim family rule” are Kim’s guiding principles, he said. “The nuclear program provides them with a deterrent in their mind against regime change by the United States. Giving up the nuclear capability will violate the two fundamental centers of gravity in the North Korean regime.”
The nuclear program’s main purpose in my opinion was not to prevent regime change. The North’s conventional threat, mainly the artillery batteries located along the DMZ has prevented any regime threatening attacks for decades despite deadly provocations by the Kim regime over many decades.
Not everyone is fooled by the Kim regime’s intentions:
“We have this backward. North Korea is not negotiating to give up their nuclear weapons,” Lewis said. “They are negotiating for recognition of their nuclear weapons. They’re willing to put up with certain limits, like no nuclear testing and no ICBM testing. What they’re offering is: They keep the bomb, but they stop talking about it.”
The further analysis to this is that the Kim regime needs the nuclear weapons and a delivery system to threaten the United States to begin the negotiations that will lead to a peace treaty and eventual withdrawal of US troops. The removal of USFK is needed in order to realize the Kim regime’s ultimate goal of a confederation. They needed a left wing administration in charge of the ROK and nuclear weapons to accomplish this goal, and they now have both.
I think it is important to remember, demilitarizing the DMZ is more beneficial to the North Koreans because the South Koreans are the ones in a defense posture to defend against a North Korean attack. Let’s hope the ROK military representatives slow roll this and don’t make any concessions that threaten the overall security of the country:
South and North Korea agreed Tuesday on the need to turn the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) into a peace area and remove firearms from the Joint Security Area (JSA) in a step to end a military standoff along their border.
Seoul and Pyongyang also reached a “broad consensus” to jointly excavate the remains in the DMZ of South Korean and U.S. troops killed during the Korean War.
But the two Koreas failed to reach an agreement on releasing a joint statement, according to the head of the South’s five-member delegation at the generals meeting.
“A trial pullout from guard posts operated by each within the JSA will follow as the two sides shared the understanding to back away from their long-running confrontation since the end of the Korean War,” Major General Kim Do-gyun told reporters. [Korea Times]
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un tours a food processing factory in Wonsan, Gangwon Province, in this photo carried by the North’s Rodong Shinmun. (Yonhap)
There has been a John Feffer sighting in the Hankyoreh. For those that don’t know who Mr. Feffer is, he is a long time North Korea apologist who once equated Kim Jong-il to former President George Bush. Feffer even incredibly once claimed that Kim Jong-un was not responsible for the Great Famine in North Korea that needlessly killed hundreds of thousands of his own citizens. Now Feffer is advocating for the Moon administration’s request for the US to approve exemptions on sanctions on North Korea:
John Feffer
North Korea has not pushed forward with denuclearization as quickly as some observers hoped. It hasn’t taken any steps to reduce its nuclear arsenal. In fact, according to a recent U.S. intelligence assessment, North Korea continues to produce highly enriched uranium for additional nuclear weapons.
Nor has North Korea even provided a list of all its nuclear-weapons-related sites or an inventory of its nuclear weapons.Still, North Korea has given several indications that it is serious about de-escalating tensions. It has maintained a moratorium on all missile and nuclear tests. It at least partially destroyed its nuclear test site at Punggye-ri (it may only have destroyed the entrances rather than the tunnels themselves). And most recently it began the partial dismantlement of its satellite-launch station.
None of these moves is irreversible. But given the Trump administration’s tendency to renege on deals – like the Iran nuclear deal – North Korea would frankly be crazy to do anything yet that it can’t later reverse. [Hankyoreh]
Notice how Feffer tries to make it out that it is all President Trump’s fault that North Korea has done nothing meaningful to denuclearize, ignoring the fact North Korea has never done anything meaningful and it has always been the US being the one making concessions in the past.
Here is where he gets into the easing of sanctions:
South Korea has also taken some important steps forward on conflict reduction. Most recently, it reported that it will reduce the number of guard posts along the DMZ and withdraw some military equipment as well. The United States, however, has not made any reciprocal moves. It canceled the summer military exercises with South Korea. But it hasn’t shown any flexibility on the issue of economic sanctions.Indeed, the Trump administration has pushed for stricter implementation of sanctions at the UN, citing North Korean violations of petroleum imports.
The United States has upped the pressure on China and Russia to enforce these sanctions. And last week, several U.S. government agencies send out an advisory that reminded businesses and individuals of the penalties of engaging economically with Pyongyang. Seoul has officially requested exemptions to the sanctions that would allow it to pursue certain economic projects with Pyongyang. It will likely have the support of both Russia and China for such exemptions.
The ball is in the U.S. court. If Trump truly wants to move forward with the deal he struck with Kim Jong Un in Singapore, then he has to put his money where his mouth is.The U.S. government can grant these exemptions while still maintaining an otherwise strict sanctions regime. It can still prevent U.S. businesses and individuals from engaging with North Korea.
It can still push for the tighter implementation of sanctions connected to critical resources, like petroleum, that North Korea needs.What South Korea is looking for, however, are exemptions that would permit the restart of joint economic programs like the Kaesong industrial zone and inter-Korean tourism operations.
The Kaesong Industrial Complex and the joint-tourism projects established by prior left-wing South Korean governments were major foreign revenue generators for the Kim regime. We heard for years about how these engagement projects would change North Korea. Well the engagers and apologists were right North Korea did change, they used the revenue to help fund their ballistic missile and nuclear programs that now can now threaten the entire region and even the US homeland.
Now the engagers and apologists want to double down on their failed ideas, but the big question is if President Trump wants to double down with them?
We could all see this coming, the leftists in the Moon administration want to get special exceptions to the international sanctions on North Korea:
South Korea’s Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha (R) shakes hands with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo before their talks in New York on July 20, 2018, in this photo provided by the Joint Press Corps. (Yonhap)
South Korea’s Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha on Monday rejected concerns about Seoul’s alleged move to ease international sanctions on Pyongyang, saying it is seeking an “exception” to facilitate cross-border exchanges.
Kang made the remarks upon arrival from her visit to the United States, amid media speculation that she stressed the need for an easing of the sanctions during her meetings with the U.N. Security Council member states.
“Now is not a phase when sanctions are being eased. … It is not an easing of sanctions,” the minister said. “(What I stressed) was to get exceptions from the sanctions, which are needed for inter-Korean projects.”
Since early this year, concerns have persisted that Seoul’s push for an increase in cross-border exchanges could contribute to an unraveling of the sanctions regime, which analysts said has helped Pyongyang change its calculus on its nuclear program.
Asked about whether her visit to the U.S. this time was aimed at playing a role as an intermediary between Washington and Pyongyang, Kang stressed the importance of communication between the allies. [Yonhap]
If the Trump administration allows the easing of sanctions that would allow the reopening of the Kaesong Industrial Complex and the joint-tourism projects in North Korea they might as well scrap the sanctions all together. These former joint-projects were major generators of foreign revenue for the Kim regime that gave them the resources necessary to develop their nuclear program in the first place.
Wouldn’t it be great if when Secretary of State Pompeo meets with Kang Kyung-wha he instead briefs her on a plan to introduce new sanctions due to nothing significant having been reaching on North Korea’s denuclearization?
Some people may try to read more into this, but Ri Yong-gil is replacing someone 84 years old. This may just be a natural leadership transition or horse trading to appease different powerbroker within North Korea. I can remember when it was believed that Ri was executed by Kim Jong-un, now here he is as chief of the military:
Ri Yong Gil, an alternate member of the Political Bureau of the C. C., the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK), is pictured in this Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) handout photo released May 10, 2016.
North Korea’s state media confirmed on Friday that Ri Yong Gil has become the new chief of the military’s general staff, the latest in leader Kim Jong Un’s leadership change.
As Kim shifts the focus to the economy and pursues diplomacy with the United States, he has been replacing older, more conservative officers who were wedded to the country’s nuclear doctrine with loyalists who would follow any changes he may make, U.S. officials and analysts say.
The North’s official KCNA agency said Ri accompanied Kim on his visit to a war veterans’ cemetery as the army’s chief of general staff, marking the 65th anniversary of the armistice agreement that ended the 1950-53 Korean War.
Ri formerly held the four-star position before he was briefly demoted deputy chief and three stars for an unspecified reason in 2016.
His return adds the recent appointments of No Kwang Chol, first vice defense minister, as the defense chief, and Army General Kim Su Gil as director of the military’s powerful General Political Bureau.
All of the newly promoted officials are younger than their predecessors, even though they are all in their 60s. Ri is 63 years old, 21 years younger than his predecessor, Ri Myong Su. [Reuters]
According to NK Leadership Watch Ri’s prior issues that led to his supposed execution had to do with his unhappiness with what he felt was unearned authority in military affairs given to Workers Party members. Whatever issues had previously occurred between him, the Workers Party, and Kim Jong-un have been clearly ironed out.
I can only imagine what the bill the Kim regime would demand the US pay to search for war remains within North Korea:
U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis acknowledged Friday the Pentagon could send military teams into North Korea to search for the remains.
Pentagon officials previously said North Korea had already excavated about 200 sets of remains of fallen American soldiers. North Korea experts suggested that the regime would want compensation for recovering the remains, which in turn could jeopardize the U.S.-led economic sanctions on North Korea.
After vowing to continue putting ‘maximum pressure’ on the North until it is fully denuclearized, the Trump administration now faces a dilemma as it may have to make a deal with North Korea to continue the excavation work without appearing to make compromises.
Kim Bum-soo, KBS World Radio News. [KBS World Radio]
North Korea’s Korean War veterans arrive in Pyongyang on July 25, 2018, to attend an event there in this photo carried by North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). (Yonhap)
