Below are excerpts from some more great analysis by Professor B.R. Myers about the state of Inter-Korean affairs and the United States. This first excerpt shows how President Moon really feels about the US-ROK alliance:
B.R. Myers
This is in line with the remarkable discretion Moon Jae-in has sustained since the start of his election campaign. Never does he speak more guardedly than when around foreigners critical of the North. Shortly after he took office I asked two Americans who had talked with him on separate occasions what impression they had got: “well-rehearsed,” said one, “well-drilled” the other. Had he given vent to the sort of anti-American, pro-North remarks Roh Moo Hyun went in for (though Roh was conservative in comparison), his policies would have encountered more resistance.
His base knows how he really feels. During the presidential election campaign in 2012 the novelist Kong Chi-yŏng, a prominent supporter, tweeted cheerfully that the Yankee-go-home candidate Lee Jung-Hee sounded “like Moon’s inner voice.” The conservatives pounced, and she had to do a quick Prufrock: It wasn’t what she’d meant at all. Since then the Moon camp has shown remarkable discipline. Professor Moon Chung-in is an exception of sorts, since it’s his job to send up trial balloons. [B.R. Myers]
I have long believed that President Moon is just a better polished, smarter, and more disciplined version of former President Roh Moo-hyun. Remember Moon was Roh’s Chief of Staff during his presidency, so learned well from all of Roh’s mistakes. This discipline and political smarts he learned has allowed Moon to sell himself as a centrist when he is in fact a leftist.
This next excerpt shows how the Moon administration plans to implement their confederation plans with North Korea:
To assume that the two Korean administrations do not already see each other as confederates, and behave accordingly, albeit discreetly, is like assuming that a man and woman planning a marriage are not yet having sex. When we ask for Moon’s help in getting the other half of the peninsula to denuclearize, we are in effect asking this fervent nationalist to help remove the future guarantor of a unified Korea’s security and autonomy. Why should he comply? The only remaining point of the US-ROK alliance is to ease the transition to a confederation — which would obviate that alliance altogether.
The recent news of South Korean violations of sanctions (and of a presidential award just given to the main importer of North Korean coal) is merely illustrative. It’s trivial in comparison to the basic truth staring us in the face: No true liberal-democratic ally of the United States would think of leaguing up with an anti-American dictatorship, let alone one still in the thrall of a personality cult. I’m not sure whether the Trump administration is unaware of this or merely pretending to be.
At any rate a peculiar pattern has repeated itself every few weeks or so since Moon took office. It goes like this. First the Blue House is caught in some statement or act of disloyalty to the spirit of the alliance — like appointing an unrepentant former enforcer of North Korean copyrights to the second most powerful post in the government. (I don’t mean the prime minister.) South Korean conservatives then shout in chorus, “The Americans won’t stand for this!” Whereupon the White House rushes to say, in effect, “Oh yes we will!” It seems to revel in making pro-American, security-minded South Koreans look foolish. (…….)
It’s therefore easy to imagine Trump or Pompeo expressing support for whatever “peace system” Moon and Kim happen to agree on, so long as progress toward denuclearization is made first. Any significant step in that direction — which we can expect the upcoming Pyongyang summit to announce with great fanfare — would then compel the US to sign off on confederation, thus encouraging the South Korean public to do likewise. Before we know it, the ROK could be locked in an embrace it might eventually need American help to get out of. [B.R. Myers]
As always I highly recommend reading the whole article from Professor Myers at the link, but at some point you would think the Trump administration would start pushing back on President Moon’s pro-North Korean agenda. Possibly the suspension of Inter-Korean railway inspections by the United Nations Command is the start of a push back?
President Moon appears to be doubling down on his policies:
President Moon Jae-in (L) walks into a Cheong Wa Dae meeting room, along with Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon (R) and Rep. Lee Hae-chan, head of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea, on Sept. 1, 2018. (Yonhap)
President Moon Jae-in called Saturday for an unswerving reform drive despite a falling approval rating and controversies over his economic policy.
He was speaking at an unprecedented gathering of all ruling party lawmakers, Cabinet members and presidential officials.
It came two days after Moon’s first Cabinet shake-up to replace five ministers, including the defense chief and the top education policymaker.
Late last month, the Democratic Party of Korea picked Rep. Lee Hae-chan, a seven-term lawmaker, as its new leader.
“The task of the times that we have to achieve together is clear,” Moon said at the meeting held at his office Cheong Wa Dae.
It’s to create a fair and just country through strong and constant reform measures, widely dubbed the “liquidation of past malpractices.” [Yonhap]
I wonder which malpractices is he referring to? Is the founding of the Republic of Korea one of the malpractices? It may be considering how President Moon has denied that the ROK was not founded in 1948.
He pointed out that South Korea is at a time of a “grand shift.”
He stressed the need for addressing the gap between the haves and have-nots via an appropriate distribution policy and promoting the co-prosperity between South and North Korea on the basis of denuclearization and a peace regime.
What is an appropriate distribution policy? The only distribution I have been hearing about is the ROK money expected to be redistributed to Kim Jong-un. Also notice the term “peace regime” being used by Moon. That is the preferred term now by ROK leftists to disguise their real intention of forming a confederation with North Korea.
To that end, the president said, Cheong Wa Dae, the ruling party and the government should make concerted efforts.
Moon, in particular, cited negative side effects from South Korea’s growth-oriented approach in the past, such as widening income disparity and misconducts by some vested powers.
Inter-Korean relations were once broken and the cloud of war was cast over Korea, he said. [Yonhap]
President Moon does not like South Korea’s growth oriented economy that has brought remarkable affluence to South Korea in an incredibly short time? Also by vested powers is President Moon referring to the United States?
This seems like something that should not be lifted until North Korea fully agrees to denuclearize and act like a responsible member of the world community:
A staff member stands at the reception desk of a hotel, backdropped by a world map, in Pyongyang, North Korea, Oct. 23, 2014. The U.S. Thursday extended until Aug. 31, 2019, a ban for its citizens to travel to North Korea.
The U.S. on Thursday extended the ban on Americans’ travel to North Korea for another year, saying it was too dangerous to go there.
“The safety and security of U.S. citizens overseas is one of our highest priorities,” a State Department official said. “The travel warning for North Korea remains in place — the Department of State strongly warns U.S. citizens not to travel to North Korea.”
The travel ban extension, in force until August 31 next year, comes as Washington’s efforts to negotiate the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula with Pyongyang have stalled [VOA]
That's a fundamental disunity of interests that, if not healed, will certainly lead to decoupling. Better that we should use that leverage while we still have it. https://t.co/aafxfC97yS
President Trump is now saying he still supports a suspension of joint military drills and blames China for the recent gridlock on denuclearization:
The White House said Wednesday the U.S. decision to suspend major combined military exercises with South Korea holds true despite a stalemate in efforts to denuclearize North Korea.
President Donald Trump believes “there is no reason at this time to be spending large amounts of money on joint U.S.-South Korea war games,” his office said in a statement posted on his Twitter account.
It cited Trump’s “good and warm” relationship with the North’s leader Kim Jong-un stemming from their historic Singapore summit on June 12.
Trump thinks China is to blame, at least partially, for the recent gridlock highlighted by the cancellation of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s trip to Pyongyang this week.
He “feels strongly that North Korea is under tremendous pressure from China because of our major trade disputes with the Chinese Government,” the statement read.
Furthermore, it added, China is providing North Korea with “considerable aid, including money, fuel, fertilizer and various other commodities. This is not helpful!” [Yonhap]
You can read much more at the link, but I am sure the Chinese are not being helpful on the nuclear issue, however I have never believed the Kim regime has wanted to denuclearize anyway. Their strategy has long been getting concessions for pretend denuclearization.
It looks like the US will be making sure that all inter-Korean cooperation is being done by existing regulations:
The United Nations Command (UNC) for the first time disapproved plans for an inter-Korean railway inspection, amid a deadlock in denuclearization talks between North Korea and the U.S.
The plan was for a South Korean train to travel up to the North’s northwestern city of Sinuiju so officials of the Koreas could inspect the condition of the tracks in the North from Aug. 22 to 27.
The UNC holds authority to approve personnel and supplies crossing the Military Demarcation Line (MDL).
The government has stated the inspections do not go against sanctions imposed on the North by the U.N. and the U.S.
The UNC initially cited the reason for disapproval as South Korea not notifying it of its plan 48 hours in advance.
A unification ministry official said this was likely not the issue.
“There were many instances in which plans that were announced less than 48 hours in advance were approved,” he told reporters, Thursday.
The UNC, in an official statement, said it “required South Korea to submit details of the planned visit.” Calling for additional details is seen as unprecedented. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but considering the duplicity shown by the Moon administration allowing the North Koreans to violate sanctions this is probably a wise move.
I personally always thought the joint exercises would be restarted in time to execute Key Resolve 2019 because I never believed the Kim regime was were serious about real denuclearization:
The U.S. military will move ahead with all future military exercises on the Korean Peninsula, Defense Secretary James N. Mattis said Tuesday, suggesting that America’s brief suspension of the drills as a show of “good faith” toward North Korea has not paid dividends in the struggling denuclearization talks with Pyongyang.
“We have no plans at this time to suspend any more exercises,” Mr. Mattis told reporters at the Pentagon, less than three months after President Trump labeled the U.S.-South Korean drills “provocative” and ordered them temporarily halted following his unprecedented face-to-face meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
Mr. Mattis made the announcement at a rare press conference with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Marine Gen. Joseph F. Dunford, during which the two also weighed in on a range of other topics, including efforts to stamp out the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and the U.S. role in battling Iran-backed rebels in Yemen. [Washington Times via a reader tip]
You can read more at the link, but supposedly the President received a hostile letter from the Butcher of the Cheonan, Kim Yong-chol that caused this announcement:
After the announcement it appears the ROK government may want to play delay games with restarting the joint exercises:
Resumption or suspension of joint military drills between South Korea and the United States is subject to discussions between the allies, an official from Seoul’s presidential office Cheong Wa Dae said Wednesday.
“As of now, the issue has not been discussed between South Korea and the United States,” Cheong Wa Dae spokesman Kim Eui-kyeom told a daily press briefing. (……)
“It is an issue that should be discussed and decided by South Korea and the U.S. while reviewing the progress in the denuclearization of North Korea,” the Cheong Wa Dae official said. [Yonhap]
I expect that the Moon administration will come out of his upcoming summit with Kim Jong-il offering some minor concession to entice the Trump administration to believe the Kim regime is serious about denuclearization. Regardless I would be surprised if Key Resolve 2019 does not happen. I guess we will see what happens.
A Belize-flagged ship, the Jin Long, is docked at a port in Pohang, on South Korea’s east coast, on Aug. 7, 2018. (Yonhap
South Korea’s spy chief told a parliamentary panel Tuesday his agency reported the import of North Korean coal to the presidential national security office last October, lawmakers said.
A monthslong probe by the customs office showed that three South Korean firms imported North Korean coal from Russia in apparent violation of U.N. sanctions resolutions. There is a controversy over whether the government turned a blind eye to the North Korean coal shipment amid a peace mood with Pyongyang.
Suh Hoon, the chief of the National Intelligence Service (NIS), told lawmakers at a closed-door meeting that the NIS reported the coal shipment to the Office of National Security under Cheong Wa Dae last October.
Suh was quoted as saying that he communicated the fact to the office though there was no direct report to President Moon Jae-in.
The customs office’s recent announcement has spurred controversy over whether South Korea is fully implementing U.N. sanctions on North Korea. [Yonhap]
Moon admin is dismantling anti-tank barriers. Says it's for people's convenience & safety. What about national security? With no barriers, could allow #NorthKorea to invade #Seoul within hours. pic.twitter.com/WguZbEEVTh
