Tag: North Korea

I think this could be interpreted by the North Koreans that the Trump administration is comfortable with a “cooling tower” like spectacle to justify dropping sanctions:

North Korea needs to take a “significant” step toward abandoning its nuclear weapons in order to get sanctions relief from the United States, U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton has said.
In an interview with The Washington Times published Friday, Bolton indicated that U.S. President Donald Trump is ready to lift the sanctions on Pyongyang if the regime will signal its sincerity about giving up its nuclear arsenal.
“What we need from North Korea is a significant sign of a strategic decision to give up nuclear weapons and it is when we get that denuclearization that the president can begin to take the sanctions off,” he said.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

The threat of regime removal has long been less of a concern for the Kim regime compared to the threat to the regime’s legitimacy from subversive media. The fact they are willing to execute people for watching subversive media is proof of this:

The North Korean government is threatening residents along the border with South Korea with possible execution for being caught watching South Korean media, RFA sources say.
The regime has reportedly held lectures in South Hwanghae province, in the western part of the country, describing severe penalties for the possession of items from wealthy, democratic South Korea.
“In the new year, police officials began hosting lectures all over the province,” said a source from South Hwanghae in an interview with RFA’s Korean Service on Monday.
“The lectures consisted of threats that strictly demand that residents abstain from watching decadent video materials of capitalism and the possessing things like fliers and USB sticks that have found their way in from the South,” said the source.
Activists in South Korea have been known to release balloons laden with money, food, fliers and USB flash drives containing media files, hoping they will land in the North and be found and distributed.  But access to South Korean TV doesn’t always require the discovery of a downed balloon.
“In a recent lecture, they told us they are aware that a growing number of people are able to manipulate the frequencies [of their televisions] to watch South Korean TV programs,” the source said.
“They said that regardless of any individual’s status, those caught in violation could be executed by firing squad. [They want to] instill fear,” the source added.

Radio Free Asia

You can read more at the link.

The doughnut hole in the argument that a nuclear North Korea can be contained, managed, and melded into some facsimile of India or Pakistan is a denial of the ideological basis for Pyongyang’s pursuit of nukes. It is not merely for deterrence, but to engineer its final victory. https://t.co/8JbRt5YdKV

— Edward Oh 🇺🇸 (@EdwardHBOh) January 22, 2019

I have been saying that the Trump administration must be offering something the Kim regime wants in order to agree to a second summit, sanctions relief or a Korean War peace treaty would do it:

U.S. President Donald Trump will most likely offer North Korea some kind of relief from international sanctions or a peace treaty in the near future, a prominent DPRK watcher and legal scholar told NK News last week.
Speaking in Washington DC ahead of a conference hosted by NK News’s parent organization the Korea Risk Group, Tufts University’s Sung-Yoon Lee said the international community’s  growing lack of political will to enforce sanctions will likely allow the U.S. to reward Pyongyang for what he described as its “fake concessions” on the nuclear issue.
“Trump will be willing to lift sanctions formally, I believe, not all sanctions, but he might say, ‘okay the poor starving North Korean people, they are suffering, so let’s lift sanctions on the ban of export of seafood and textiles,’” Lee, Kim Koo-Korea Foundation Professor in Korean Studies and Assistant Professor at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, said.
“If the U.S. takes the lead in bending the rules – U.S. rules as well as UN Security Council resolutions – who will object? China? No. South Korea? No. Russia? No. Britain and France which really don’t have a bone in this fight? No,” he added. “So it’s all up to Trump and I think Trump is more than willing to offer premature sanctions relaxation.”
In a wide-ranging interview, Lee also discussed why he believes it’s “too late” to bridge the gap between the U.S. and North Korea on denuclearization definitions, ROK President Moon Jae-in’s role in promoting dialogue with the DPRK, and what he sees as Pyongyang’s long-term goal: forcing U.S. withdrawal from the peninsula and the region.

NK News

You can read the whole interview at the link, but Professor Lee believes that sanctions relief and a peace treaty will in the near future be offered by the US.

However, squabbles over the definition of denuclearization could cause North Korea in the next few years to detonate a hydrogen bomb in the atmosphere over the Pacific to make the point their nuclear program is now complete. I don’t see them doing that due to the affect such a detonation would have on satellites. Taking out satellites with an EMP blast I think would lead to a call for regime removal; just imagine the global financial and economic impacts of losing satellites in low Earth orbit. The outrage I believe would be huge.

I don’t think the Kim regime would risk the blowback which would leave them with an above ground test option. If they were going to do an above ground test they would have to do it over the surface of a remote part of the Pacific Ocean. Seems pretty challenging logistically for the North Koreans to pull off such a test, but if they get billions of dollars in cash from the South Koreans and sanctions relief may be they can pull it off.

Here is a lawyer who thinks that North Korea is a great place to invest:

North Korea has an advanced arbitration system even compared to developed countries, and foreign companies face an even playing field in dispute resolution, according to Michael Hay, the founder of North Korea’s only foreign law firm Hay, Kalb & Associates. 

“From start to finish, (an arbitration case) could be done in six months… which is much faster than most other countries I have worked in,” Hay said in an interview with The Korea Times at his office in Seoul, Monday. 

He has been a foreign legal counsel at HMP Law since December, after 12 years of operating his law firm in the North.

Hay emphasized that the North Korean regime has no choice but to maintain an advanced dispute resolution system in order to continue reeling in foreign investment and companies.

“One thing North Koreans are very conscious of: If they don’t have a dispute resolution system, people will not come and invest in the country. In my experience they are very supportive (of foreign firms),” he said.

Korea Times

You can read the rest at the link, but Mr. Hay says that the businesses that lost money in North Korea did so because they grandstanded about doing business in North Korea. He says businesses that kept their dealings quiet with the regime were more successful.

1/18/19: President Donald J. Trump presented w/a letter from Chairman Kim Jong Un by Kim Yong Chol, Vice Chairman of the Worker’s Party of Korea and Chairman of the Korea Asia Pacific Peace Committee, followed by a expanded bilateral meeting in the Oval Office at the @WhiteHouse. pic.twitter.com/FgKtKqkDZn

— Dan Scavino Jr. (@Scavino45) January 20, 2019

If the ROK Foreign Minister is to believed it appears the US will be offering a peace treaty and humanitarian aid in return for denuclearization steps:

Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha referred to ending the Korean War, establishing a communication channel between North Korea and the U.S., and humanitarian aid as possible measures that Washington could offer Pyongyang for taking denuclearization steps.

“Various options are being discussed as corresponding measures,” Kang told reporters in a briefing at the foreign ministry, Wednesday.

However, on resuming operations at the Gaeseong Industrial Complex (GIC) or tours to Mount Geumgang, which had drawn attention as possible reciprocal measures, Kang said such these “were not at a stage of being reviewed.”

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but as I have said before a Korean War peace treaty is something that North Korea has long sought as a way to end the presence of US troops in South Korea. If there is peace why is USFK needed?

President Moon has been saying all the right things that USFK will remain after any peace treaty is signed, to include claiming Kim Jong-un understands this as well. However, this is likely just rhetoric to prevent energizing South Korean conservatives against a peace treaty. 

Remember Moon is a very skilled politician that needs to keep the Korean right at bay and public anxiety down.  If he openly advocated for a USFK withdrawal, that would give the South Korean right an issue to strongly attack him with and cause much public anxiety after decades of security guarantees provided by US forces.  That is why I think the Moon administration will publicly say they support USFK staying, but will then have surrogates do things to make life difficult for USFK.

Possibly the future of USFK after a peace treaty could look a lot like the current THAAD site in Seongju.  President Moon will say all the right things that he supports USFK, just like he supposedly supports the THAAD site, but will set conditions to make it difficult for its continued existence and cause the US to withdraw troops on its own accord.

Who suggested late Feb? 3/1/1919 was Korea's anti-Japanese movmt. Moon/his party deny 8/15/48 as SKorea's birth (as liberal democracy/mkt econ), instead says 1919 "provisionl govt" in China. Moon plans big event on 3/1 & KJU may join to reap image victory. SK people aghast. https://t.co/4TYMwm68Ij

— Tara O (@DrTaraO) January 19, 2019

Kim-Trump 2 will apparently happen by the end of February:

U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will hold a second summit near the end of February at a location to be announced at a later date, the White House said Friday.
Trump and a top North Korean official met at the White House to finalize details of a potential summit on dismantling the North’s nuclear weapons program.
“President Donald J. Trump met with Kim Yong Chol for an hour and half, to discuss denuclearization and a second summit, which will take place near the end of February,” White House press secretary Sarah Sanders said in a statement. “The President looks forward to meeting with Chairman Kim at a place to be announced at a later date.”

Vietnam is widely reported to be a top candidate site. Both the U.S. and North Korea have embassies there.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but the fact that the Kim regime has agreed to the summit means they must feel they are going to get a significant concession from the US. I guess we will see what it is.