Tag: North Korea

This is something ROK Heads have known for quite some time, but the media is catching up:

For Trump, keeping the status quo would be the best policy at this point because any future deal with North Korea will be criticized within the U.S. as a “bad deal,” according to Kim Dong-yub, a professor at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies of Kyungnam University.

“After North Korea gave up Yongbyon, the U.S. still did not give up on sanctions. If the U.S. were to make concessions in any future deal, it will be criticized domestically. Trump considers it best to maintain the current state of tension without any additional agreement. This is the most conducive to keeping up Trump’s case that North Korea has not tested missiles or launched an ICBM,” the professor told The Korea Times, Monday. “If North Korea launches an ICBM, it could affect the U.S. election. But it will not be easy for North Korea to do this, although it has been testing engines and so forth.” 

Another analyst explained that Kim could be aiming to pressure Trump ahead of the U.S. election, but was negative about an ICBM test in the near future. 

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

It appears the North Koreans are being very open to make sure satellites capture what they are doing to drive media coverage prior to a provocation:

South Korea has been working closely with the United States to analyze a “very important test” that North Korea claimed to have conducted at its satellite launching site over the weekend, the defense ministry said Monday.

The communist country said Sunday that it carried out the test successfully at its Sohae Satellite Launching Ground, referring to its Dongchang-ri site in North Pyongyan Province, the previous day.

Pyongyang did not elaborate on what it tested but noted that results “will have an important effect on changing the strategic position of the DPRK once again in the near future.” The DPRK stands for the North’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but this is apparently a new ICBM engine being tested. I have long speculated that the Kim regime could test an ICBM and then call it a “space launch”. They can claim they have the right to the peaceful use of space and never promised to suspend their space program. Plus this will give the Russians and the Chinese the ability to diplomatically cover for them if the U.S. tries to increase sanctions through the United Nations.

At least the North Koreans are being honest now and admitting they never had any plans to denuclearize:

Earlier Saturday, North Korea’s ambassador to the United Nations, Kim Song, said that denuclearization has already been taken off the negotiating table with the U.S.

“We do not need to have lengthy talks with the U.S. now and denuclearization is already gone out of the negotiating table,” Kim said in a statement issued after Britain and five other European nations condemned the North’s “continued testing of ballistic missiles.”

Yonhap

North Korea wasn’t finished:

 Satellite imagery indicated on Monday that North Korea had tested a rocket engine, and a senior Pyongyang official called Donald Trump a “heedless and erratic old man”, resuming insults of the U.S. president that had been set aside during a thaw.

The statement carried in state media KCNA by Kim Yong Chol, a ruling party vice chairman who was instrumental in arranging a failed second summit in February, was the strongest salvo yet in a war of words that has rekindled in recent days.

He described Trump as impatient, rebuked him over his own rhetoric and repeated a threat from last week that Pyongyang would dust off its previous insult “dotard” for the U.S. leader.

You can read more at the link.

I am sure President Trump understands this, but if a deal is not made the North Koreans will very likely launch provocations next year to pressure the Trump administration into a deal:

 U.S. President Donald Trump said Saturday he doesn’t think North Korea will engage in hostile acts and interfere with the upcoming U.S. presidential election, an apparent warning that the communist nation shouldn’t undertake provocations that could hurt his reelection chances.

“I’d be surprised if North Korea acted hostilely,” Trump was quoted as telling reporters at the White House. “He knows I have an election coming up. I don’t think he wants to interfere with that. But we’ll have to see.”

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

The Korean media has been making a big deal about surveillance flights around North Korea and the PACAF commander says these flights are nothing new:

The commander of U.S. Pacific Air Forces said Friday that recent surveillance flights around the Korean Peninsula were part of regular operations, refusing to confirm any connection to possible North Korean provocations.

In a telephone briefing from Hawaii, Gen. Charles Brown, Jr. said there has been an increasing number of North Korean missile tests and heightened rhetoric ahead of the end-of-year deadline Pyongyang has imposed for Washington to show flexibility in their denuclearization negotiations.

“I also believe as we get here towards the end of the year and the increase in rhetoric, it’s something we are actually really paying close attention to, not only for this month but into 2020 as well,” Brown told reporters.

“We’re pretty much flying the same way that we’ve been flying for the past year or so, so there’s no real change,” he said when asked if the surveillance flights implied there could be North Korean provocations.

“Our job is to provide some situational awareness and domain awareness to not only our military leadership, but also to our political leadership so they have an understanding of the dynamics of what’s going on within the region, whether it be around the peninsula or any other part of the region,” Brown added. “So, our tempo really hasn’t changed in the course of the past year.”

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

Long time Korea analyst Victor Cha is making some bold predictions:

But there is bigger storm brewing behind these dark clouds that is threatening to the core of the U.S.-South Korea alliance. It has three components. The first is a nuclear deal with North Korea that is almost certain before Christmas now that John Bolton, the most influential voice in the Hanoi summit’s collapse, is out of the White House. This deal will probably not be a good one, in that its scope will be limited mostly to the Yongbyon nuclear facility; it will not be verifiable; and the U.S. will give too much in lifting sanctions. 

But both presidents Moon Jae-in and Donald Trump, who have both staked so much of their credibility on a deal with Kim, will not just accept a suboptimal deal, but will declare with it an end to hostilities on the Korean Peninsula in the form of a peace declaration. (……)

The perfect storm in the winter of 2019-2020, therefore, is a peace deal with North Korea and a failed cost-sharing negotiation that causes Trump to act on his beliefs. Specifically, his anger over Seoul’s refusal to pay no more than a fraction of the demand, coupled with an end-of-war declaration, will cause Trump to act on his 30-year long instinct to draw down or fully withdraw forces from South Korea. As ludicrous as this scenario may sound to experts, Trump would boast that the deal with North Korea is the “best deal ever” with his good friend Kim Jong-un; that he has ended the Korean War; and that he can now “bring the boys home” because there is peace in South Korea and the “ungrateful” South Koreans do not want to pay for U.S. troops. Moreover, he will tell his political base during the campaign that this move is saving money wasted on foreigners and therefore he is putting “America first.”

Chosun Ilbo

You can read more at the link.

This is just another example of North Korea trying to create more tension prior to the end of the year in hopes of getting a deal with the Trump administration:

The lack of courtesy shown to Kim had “prompted the waves of hatred of our people against the U.S. and the Americans and they are getting higher and higher”, Choe said.

“It would be fortunate” if Trump’s remarks were simply “an instantaneous verbal lapse, but the matter becomes different if they were a planned provocation that deliberately targeted us”, she said. 

North Korea would watch closely to see if Trump repeated the comments, Choe said. 

“If any language and expressions stoking the atmosphere of confrontation are used once again on purpose at a crucial moment as now, that must really be diagnosed as the relapse of the dotage of a dotard,” she concluded. 

Trump said on Tuesday he still had confidence in the North Korean leader but noted that Kim “likes sending rockets up”. 

“…That’s why I call him Rocket Man,” Trump told reporters at a NATO meeting in London.

Reuters

The North Koreans have never been known for their sense of humor, but clearly the President was trying to be funny.