The Patriot PAC-3 is designed to shootdown short range ballistic missiles not an intermediate range missile which the category the Musudan falls under. That is what the THAAD system is for:
A medium-range ballistic missile launched Wednesday by North Korea flew at an average speed of Mach 11.3, or 11.3 times faster than the speed of sound, according to an analysis of a timeline seen on a monitor at the launch site.
The hypersonic speed of Mach 11.3 has sharply raised concerns about the capabilities of the Patriotic Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missile defense system that the South Korean military has purchased to upgrade its existing PAC-2 missile defense system. The PAC-3 flies at Mach 3.5 to 5 and intercepts incoming missiles at altitudes of up to 40 kilometers (25 miles). [Joong Ang Ilbo]
You can read more at the link, but a professor at the Korea National Defense University explains in the article that THAAD can shoot down the Musudan. This is all the more reason why both Japan and the ROK should look at either purchasing their own THAAD system or deploying one into theater from the US.
If North Korea continues with their heavy flight testing schedule this seems like it could be a realistic estimate:
The North Korean military test launches one of two Musudan missiles Wednesday, June 22, 2016, in this photo from North Korean media outlet Rodong Sinmun.
North Korea’s missile launch was a “partial success” that suggests the provocative country could have a road-mobile ICBM capable of reaching the U.S. mainland by early next decade, a U.S. think tank says.
After failing in four previous tries, the North fired back-to-back Musudan missiles in just over two hours Wednesday. The first was considered another failure, but the second flew 620 to 880 miles high before falling into the Sea of Japan.
The actual distance traveled — 250 miles — was well short of its potential range that would put it within range of Japan and U.S. bases in the region. Experts said the missile was fired at a high angle to avoid provoking Japan, but the ability to achieve that altitude shows that the North Koreans are making technical progress.
The U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University, in its 38north.org blog, called the test a “partial success.” But it noted that six tests since mid-April despite repeated failures suggest the Musudan is not the North’s long-term focus.
“This isn’t so much an engineering program so much as an exercise in tossing a coin or rolling a die until it comes up with the result they like,” analyst John Schilling wrote in Thursday’s post.
However, he said, it was the first time the Musudan’s engine, which is shared by North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missiles, was flight tested. Previous tests either crashed or exploded prematurely.
“This partial success increases the likelihood that North Korea’s KN-08 and KN-14 road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) will reach operational status early in the next decade,” he said.
“We still don’t expect them to have those missiles operational before 2020, but early flight testing by that date is increasingly likely,” he added. [Stars & Stripes]
North Korea’s top leader Kim Jong-un (seated) and military officials are elated after watching what the country claimed as a successful launch of its ballistic missile Hwasong-10 in this photo released by the North’s ruling party newspaper Rodong Sinmun on June 23, 2016. The North claimed success in the June 22 launch of the missile, known as the intermediate-range Musudan in the outside world, saying it flew the targeted 400 km and re-entered the atmosphere after soaring to an altitude of 1,413.6 km. If true, it would mark significant progress in the North’s missile technology. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
I would like to see him try because Japan and Okinawa already have Patriot and Aegis missile defenses while THAAD was deployed to Guam specifically to defend against the Musudan missile threat. I will be more concerned if they successfully develop an submarine launched ballistic missile capability:
Leader Kim Jong-Un threatened US military bases across the Pacific after North Korea’s test of a powerful new missile triggered emergency UN Security Council talks on curbing Pyongyang’s nuclear programme.
Kim, who personally monitored Wednesday’s Musudan missile test, applauded a “great event” that significantly bolstered the North’s pre-emptive nuclear attack capability, the official KCNA news agency reported.
“We have the sure capability to attack in an overall and practical way the Americans in the Pacific operation theatre,” Kim was quoted as saying.
A Korean-language version of the same report had Kim referring to “the American bastards.”
The Musudan has a theoretical range of anywhere between 2,500 and 4,000 kilometres (1,550 to 2,500 miles), with the upper estimate covering US military bases as far away as Guam.
After a string of failures in recent months, North Korea tested two Musudans on Wednesday, one of which flew 400 kilometres into the Sea of Japan (East Sea).
KCNA said the missile had been fired at a high angle to simulate its full range, and had reached a maximum height of more than 1,400 kilometres.
The test “marked an important occasion in further strengthening the nuclear attack capacity of our state,” Kim said. [AFP]
You can read more at the link, but this picture released by North Korea shows how much Kim Jong-un had invested in the successful development of the Musudan:
North Korea’s top leader Kim Jong-un (R) and Ri Pyong-chol, a member of the ruling Workers’ Party central committee, hug each other in joy after the North’s self-claimed successful launch of its ballistic missile Hwasong-10 on June 22, 2016. Ri is a former chief of the North’s air force and had accompanied the leader on most of the previous missile tests. This and other photos released by the party’s newspaper Rodong Sinmun on June 23 showed that Gen. Kim Rak-gyom was still the head commander of the North Korean military strategic forces in charge of missile operations. He was rumored to have been demoted for failed previous launches. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution)
These two looked happier than Lebron James winning the NBA Championship.
North Korea as expected fired off two more Musudan missiles. The first one was considered a failure after it blew up shortly after launch. However, the second launch analysts have not determined if it was successful or not:
North Korea launched what appeared to be two Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) from its east coast early Wednesday morning, with the first test-firing assumed to have been unsuccessful, the Joint Chiefs of Staff said.
At around 5:58 a.m., North Korea fired off what is presumed to be a Musudan missile from near Wonsan along the east coast, but it seems to have ended in failure, the JCS said, without further details
About two hours later at 8:05 a.m., the North launched another missile presumed to be the same type of IRBM from the same area, the JCS noted.
Whether the second missile’s launch was successful was not immediately known. All previous launches of the missile ended in failure, dealing a blow to the credibility of North Korea’s missile program.
On April 15, North Korea first test-fired the Musudan missile as the country kickstarted its ballistic missile tests and development following North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s much-published orders to accelerate the country’s nuclear and missile sophistication the previous month. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but the Joong Ang Ilbo is reporting the first one traveled 150 kilometers before exploding and the second one traveled 400 kilometers:
North Korea launched back-to-back Musudan missiles Wednesday, one of which flew 400 kilometers (250 miles), South Korean military officials said.
While 400 kilometers fell far short of the Musudan’s 3,500-kilometer capability, which puts U.S. military bases in the Pacific within range, South Korea was alarmed at the technological progress shown.
Pyongyang carried out its fifth and sixth intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) tests at 5:58 a.m. and 8:05 a.m. Wednesday from the eastern coast city of Wonsan in Kangwon Province, the Joint Chiefs of Staff reported.
“The first one disappeared after it was detected by radar while the second one flew about 400 kilometers,” said a Joint Chiefs of Staff official who asked not to be named. (……..)
The South Korean military believes the first missile exploded in midair after flying about 150 kilometers. The second missile fired two hours later appeared to have exploded or crashed into the sea after flying 400 kilometers.
The exact causes of the failures are still being determined by Seoul and Washington.
It is possible that North Korea intended its sixth Musudan missile to fall after flying 400 kilometers to prevent it from going over Japan, which would have prompted the country to respond militarily. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
You can read more at the link, but I doubt North Korea would try and fly a Musudan over Japan without being very confident that the missile would work. They have fired over Japan before, but never with a missile under development like the Musudan is. I don’t think Kim Jong-un would want to deal with a potential retaliatory military response if a failed missile landed in Japan. It is pretty clear though that Kim Jong-un is committed to testing the Musudan until his scientists perfect the technology. These latest missile tests seem to indicate they are getting closer to that goal.
It appears the North Koreans are determined to keep testing the Musudan until they get it to work:
North Korea is said to have deployed an intermediate-range missile to Wonsan, Gangwon Province on Tuesday.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff said that it is closely monitoring the North for possible missile launches.
A military official said that such preparation follows four failed test-firings of Musudan intermediate-range missiles in April and May.
The military is said to believe that the North will launch a Musudan missile as early as Tuesday or Wednesday. [KBS World Radio]
You can read more at the link, but four of these Musudans have exploded shortly after launch. If they keep executing these tests the North Koreans will probably through trial and error eventually get it to work. The significance of them getting this missile to work is that they can then range US military bases on Okinawa and Guam with the Musudan.
This most recent failure officially makes North Korea O for 4 for their road mobile Musudan Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) test launches:
North Korea apparently failed with an attempted missile launch Tuesday, the latest in a series of setbacks for a ballistic weapons programme that aspires to threaten the US mainland.
South Korea’s defence ministry detected the dawn launch effort, which Japan condemned as an unacceptable and “provocative” act.
The ministry declined to speculate on the missile type, but military sources cited by local media said it was a powerful, medium-range “Musudan” that has already undergone three failed launches this year.
UN resolutions ban North Korea from any use of ballistic missile technology, although it regularly fires short-range missiles into the sea off its east coast.
Tuesday’s effort came with tensions still running high on the divided Korean peninsula following the North’s fourth nuclear test in January and long-range rocket launch a month later.
“We believe that it was a failure,” said Jeon Ha-Gyu, spokesman for the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff.
“As to why and how it failed, we are in the process of analysing that,” Jeon told a press briefing. [AFP]
You can read more at the link, but the AFP article did not state what happened with the launch. The South Korean media on the other hand is reporting that the missile once again blew up on the launch pad:
Anchor: North Korea has again sought to fire a ballistic missile but the launch ended in failure. Sources have suggested that the missile exploded at a mobile launch pad immediately after the order for the launch was given. As it marked the fourth failed attempt in a row to launch the ballistic missile, the South Korean military is suspecting an engine defect.
Our Kim Bum-soo reports.
Report: North Korea has test-fired another ballistic missile but the launch ended in failure.
Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff(JCS) said that the North Korean military fired a projectile off its east coast near the Wonsan region at around 5:20 a.m on Tuesday.
JCS officials said that the launch was unsuccessful. Other sources suggested the possibility that the missile exploded on its mobile launcher immediately after a fire button was pressed. [KBS World Radio]
You can read more at the link, but the South Korean military believes their is a structural defect with the Russian BM-25 engine they modified for their Musudans. Also according to the article it is believed that North Korea has 50 Musdudan missiles in their inventory. At this rate they are going to blow them all up testing them.
What is even more significant about these failures is that their road mobile KN-08 Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) could also be considered to be of low capability since it has never been tested. The KN-08 is North Korea’s main weapon they use to threaten the United States with nuclear destruction. If they cannot get their road mobile Musudan IRBM technology to work what are the chances that their road mobile ICBM works to threaten the US with?
Japan put its military on alert on Monday for a possible North Korean ballistic missile firing, while South Korea also said it had detected evidence of launch preparations, officials from Japan and South Korea said.
Tension in the region has been high since North Korea conducted its fourth nuclear test in January and followed that with a satellite launch and test launches of various missiles.
Japan ordered naval destroyers and anti-ballistic missile Patriot batteries to be ready to shoot down any projectile heading for Japan, Japan’s NHK state broadcaster said.
A Japanese official, who declined to be identified as he is not authorized to speak to the media, confirmed the order. A spokesmen for Japan’s defense ministry declined to comment.
A Patriot missile battery on the grounds of Japan’s Ministry of Defense had its missile tubes elevated to a firing position.
The South Korean defense official declined to comment on what type of missile might be launched but South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency said officials believe it would be an intermediate-range Musudan missile. [Reuters]
You can read more at the link, but what is significant about this is that the Musudan is the missile that the North Koreans have developed to specifically target the US territory of Guam and threaten US forces there with a nuclear strike. As it is now Kim Jong-un might just be happy if his Musudan gets up in the air much less reaching Guam.
