Tag: Moon Jae-in

An Inter-Korean summit would likely be used to further weaken sanctions by agreeing to re-opening the Kaesong Industrial Park and the Mt. Kumgang Resort among other things:

Kim Yong-nam (R), North Korea’s ceremonial head of state, attends a dinner at a hotel in Gangneung, Gangwon Province, on Feb. 10, 2018. On the left is Kim Yo-jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. (Yonhap)

South Korea’s political parties showed mixed reactions Saturday to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s proposal to hold an inter-Korean summit in Pyongyang at an early date.

The proposal was conveyed by Kim’s sister, Kim Yo-jong, during a meeting with President Moon Jae-in at Cheong Wa Dae earlier in the day. Moon responded, “Let’s make it happen by creating necessary conditions.”

The ruling Democratic Party welcomed the meeting as a historic occasion in advancing inter-Korean reconciliation.

“The meeting created an important momentum for building peace on the Korean Peninsula,” Kim Hyun, party spokeswoman, said.

Noting Moon’s positive but cautious reaction, the party called for “mutual efforts to reduce tensions on the peninsula and cooperation from relevant countries.”

Opposition parties urged the government to be wary of the North’s true intentions.

“President Moon Jae-in and his government is getting caught up deeply into North Korea’s disguised peace offensive one step after another,” Rep. Jun Hee-kyung, of the main opposition Liberty Korea Party, said.

Behind the North’s peace overtures is its intention to cause a crack in international sanctions on the isolated country, she said.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but here is what the Korea Times reported:

North Korea delegates sit at a table during their meeting with President Moon. / Yonhap

Moon expressed his hope to make the visit happen by creating the necessary conditions, according to the spokesman.

The President said the North Korean delegation’s visit to the South created the opportunity to hold a peaceful Olympics, relieved tension on the Korean Peninsula and improve inter-Korean relations.

“He also asked North Korea to be more open to talks with the U.S. , adding Pyongyang-Washington dialogue was also necessary to improve inter-Korean relations,” the spokesman said.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but any planned summit would also give the Kim regime more time to work on their nuclear and ICBM programs.

I wonder how many sanctions busting demands Kim Yong-nam is going to demand from President Moon?:

President Moon Jae-in is considering having bilateral talks with North Korea’s Kim Yong-nam who will lead a high-profile delegation to the PyeongChang Winter Olympic Games, according to Cheong Wa Dae, Monday.

The meeting, if it takes place, could speed up the thawing of inter-Korean relations which is a result of the North’s participation in the Games. Moon is also expected to try to encourage Washington-Pyongyang talks, as he will also meet with U.S. Vice President Mike Pence who is leading his country’s Olympic delegation.

Cheong Wa Dae welcomed the attendance of Kim, the president of the Supreme People’s Assembly, the nominal head of North Korea according to its Constitution.

“It is Kim’s first visit to South Korea, and he is the highest-ranking North Korean official ever to visit the South,” presidential spokesman Kim Eui-kyeom said. “His visit shows North Korea’s wishes to improve inter-Korean relations and for a successful Olympics. We recognize the North is showing a serious and sincere attitude.”  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.

The Moon administration asking to do this is a definite possibility, but I would be surprised if the US government agrees to an indefinite suspension.  The joint exercises are a key part of maintaining combined readiness on the Korean peninsula.  I guess we will see if Key Resolve gets cancelled because it has already been delayed, but cancelling all joint exercises indefinitely I just don’t see happening:

South Korea could push to indefinitely postpone joint military exercises with the United States in exchange for North Korea taking steps to denuclearize, a U.S. expert said Tuesday.

The allies earlier agreed to suspend the annual drills for the duration of the PyeongChang Winter Games. North Korea views the exercises as an invasion rehearsal and has protested with various provocations in the past.

Sue Mi Terry, senior fellow for Korea at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the liberal administration of South Korean President Moon Jae-in could seek to extend the suspension and bring the U.S. and North Korea together for denuclearization negotiations.

“(The South Korean government wants) to make sure that this opening with North Korea over the Olympics leads to something and leads to perhaps U.S.-North Korea dialogue,” she told a press briefing, referring to Pyongyang’s recent agreement to participate in the Games.

“So they’re going to try very hard,” she added, “and if they cannot give concessions on the sanctions front, they have to give something, because North Korea will demand it. So I’m a little bit concerned that the Moon government might actually push for the postponement of joint military exercises.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

South Korean woman faces criminal charges for calling Moon Jae-in a communist. https://t.co/zEd5ncYm6z

— Joshua Stanton (@freekorea_us) January 22, 2018

Don't write off South Korean president Moon Jae-in as naive or as someone who can be manipulated by Kim Jong Un, says @JohnDelury: He's playing a long game, not seeking credit. https://t.co/MichO0fufU pic.twitter.com/7UKK26GZrL

— Anna Fifield (@annafifield) January 11, 2018

It looks like the upcoming Key Resolve exercise will be delayed if North Korea does not cause any more provocations:

South Korean President Moon Jae-in and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed Thursday to delay their countries’ regular joint military exercises during the Winter Olympic Games to be held here next month.

The agreement came in a telephone conversation between the two leaders, according to the South Korean presidential office Cheong Wa Dae.

The tentative agreement came at a request from the South Korean leader.

“I believe it would greatly help ensure the success of the PyeongChang Winter Olympic Games if you could express an intention to delay joint South Korea-U.S. military exercises during the Olympics in case the North does not make any more provocations,” Moon was quoted as telling Trump.

The U.S. president agreed, saying Moon may tell North Korea that there will be no military exercises during the Olympics, according to Cheong Wa Dae.

In a press release, the White House confirmed the leaders agreed to “de-conflict the Olympics and our military exercises so that United States and Republic of Korea forces can focus on ensuring the security of the Games.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but the Olympics are in February and the Key Resolve exercise is typically executed in March so it was not like both events were overlapping.  However, preparations and personnel movements do happen in February and a shift of Key Resolve will provide the ROK military more time to focus on Olympic security before executing the exercise.

I guess the big question becomes what happens if North Korea commits a provocation like a missile test? Does Key Resolve get executed at the original time?  I would not be surprised if North Korea does a more ambiguous provocation like a space launch just to create tension in the US-ROK alliance over what to do in response.

President Moon Jae-in (C, rear) meets two victims of sexual enslavement by the Japanese military during World War II to have lunch with them at the presidential office Cheong Wa Dae on Jan. 4, 2018, in this photo released by his office. Moon reiterated his stance that a 2015 deal between Seoul and Tokyo on ending their longstanding dispute over former wartime sex slaves is defective but said the incumbent government may still work with the agreement to resolve the issue. (Yonhap)

I guess we will see where this leads, but Key Resolve is the joint military exercise that typically happens every March which would be the month after the Pyeongchang Olympics held in February 2018:

South Korea and the United States may consider postponing their joint military exercise as part of efforts to reduce tension and invite North Korea to the Winter Olympic Games to be held in South Korea, South Korean President Moon Jae-in said Tuesday.

Moon, however, said the move really depends on the way North Korea behaves.

“It is possible for South Korea and the U.S. to review the possibility of postponing the exercises. I have made such a suggestion to the U.S. and the U.S is currently reviewing it. However, all this depends on how North Korea behaves,” he said in an interview with U.S. broadcaster NBC on Tuesday (local time).  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

President Moon’s trip to China began with him receiving a cold shoulder from the Chinese:

The early part of President Moon Jae-in’s state visit to China this week was marred by Beijing’s mistreatment of the Korean leader, who is making his first visit to the country since taking office in May.

Upon arrival in Beijing, President Moon was greeted by Kong Xuanyou, Chinese assistant minister of foreign affairs and special representative on Korean Peninsula affairs.

During a state visit last year by Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, China sent Foreign Minister Wang Yi to the airport to greet him. Considering such a precedence, Beijing should have sent a higher official than one of its foreign ministry’s assistant ministers to greet the Korean head of state.

Aside from the inappropriate airport greeting, Chinese President Xi Jinping was out of town on the day of Moon’s arrival. Xi was in China’s eastern city of Nanjing to preside over a ceremony marking the 80th anniversary of the 1937 Nanking Massacre by Japanese troops. Korean Ambassador to China Noh Young-min attended the event at the order of the President rather than greet him at the airport. The President reportedly told him it is more important for an ambassador to take part in a meaningful event in the host country. Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang and other key figures in Chinese government were also absent from Beijing as they were also taking part in the Nanjing ceremony.

Cheong Wa Dae dismissed the media reports of Moon getting mistreated by China, but one cannot help getting the impression so far that China is not very enthusiastic about Moon’s visit.  [Korea Times]

Then there was the beatdown of a South Korean journalist by Chinese security that marred a business event that President Moon attended.  Then the Chinese refused to issue a joint statement about the lingering THAAD issue:

Calling the media reports “narrow-minded,” the state-run outlet reported on China’s stance over the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system.

“The issue has become the biggest obstacle to the Bejing-Seoul relationship. The two governments partly reached an agreement on how to solve the problem, but some differences remain unsolved. The fact that the two sides will not issue a joint statement is a reflection of the differences.”

Lee Chang-ju, researcher for the Korea Logistics Forum, said the provocative editorial mirrors lingering domestic concerns in China. The Huanqiu Shibao has been outspoken in defending China’s national interest.

“If the two countries had issued a joint statement focusing on economic cooperation without mentioning THAAD, South Korea would have viewed it as a full-fledged solution to the THAAD, which China cannot accept,” Lee said  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but it is pretty clear that the Chinese government is going to continue to politically use THAAD as a wedge issue to separate the ROK from the United States.  The Chinese feel that that the US is trying to recreate the old USSR containment strategy against them and thus are taking actions to counter this.  They have made inroads within the Philippines at countering US influence there and are doing the something with the ROK using the phony THAAD dispute.

President Moon Jae-in shakes hands with a group of South Korean and U.S. soldiers guarding the inter-Korean truce village of Panmunjom, called the Joint Security Area (JSA), at the presidential office in Seoul on Dec. 1, 2017. Moon invited them to praise them for their shrewd response to a North Korean soldier’s defection to South Korea via the inter-Korean border inside the JSA on Nov. 13. (Yonhap)