Tag: Moon Chung-in

Former President Moon’s foreign policy advisor, Moon Chung-in has an interview in the Korea Times. Part of the interview focuses on what he thinks a President Trump presidency would mean for South Korea:

Q: If Trump were to be re-elected, what would his approach be toward North Korea? Would we witness another Trump-Kim bromance?

A: In a potential second term, Trump will prioritize solidifying his political legacy. His foreign policies would be greatly influenced by media attention and personal ego, as he values how history will remember him. Striking a “big deal” with Pyongyang and contributing to peace on the Korean Peninsula could serve as a pathway to fulfilling such an ambition, potentially earning him a Nobel Peace Prize nomination. While resolving the war in Ukraine or the Gaza crisis could also enhance his Nobel Prize prospects, negotiations with North Korea are likely to be a key agenda for Trump.

In that sense, Trump will actively engage North Korea, potentially even considering a visit to Pyongyang for a summit with Kim Jong-un, where Trump could present surprising offers. However, the success of such endeavors ultimately depends on Kim’s response.

Q: What would Kim want from Trump? And considering that their previous attempts did not yield favorable results, does that mean they will have to start from square one? 

A: Kim has little to lose by fostering a close relationship with Trump, as showcasing friendship with a global leader sends a powerful message both domestically and internationally.

However, the problem is that Kim’s trust in Trump was shattered when the former president did not keep his promise made during the Panmunjeom summit in June 2019. To mend that fractured trust, Trump would need to extend significant overtures this time. This could include pledges on immediate sanctions relief that would visibly improve North Korea’s economy, followed by the normalization of bilateral relations between Pyongyang and Washington. Additionally, Trump might propose halting joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States, or even reducing the number of U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) troops. In exchange, he could seek commitments from North Korea to cease nuclear and missile activities, along with a gradual reduction of its nuclear arsenal.

Korea Times

You can read much more at the link.

No soon after I post an article speculating that South Korea is pursuing a policy of neutrality here comes President Moon’s trial balloon expert advocating for this exact policy:

South Korea should work together with Australia, Canada and Japan to form regional economic or security frameworks so as to create a new order free from the burden of choosing sides between the United States and China, an adviser to President Moon Jae-in said Friday.

Moon Chung-in, special foreign policy and security adviser, made the remarks during a virtual seminar, stressing that it is very unlikely the tensions between Washington and Beijing will get any better under the next U.S. administration of Joe Biden. 

“The Biden administration will be using a softer tone, but the policy will be as tough as Trump’s. There will be a tougher American encirclement of China, although he might be more selective in terms of technology and economy,” he said in the seminar hosted by the Korean Association for Public Diplomacy. 

“That will put us in an extremely difficult position. It will restore the old ‘bloc diplomacy’ … in the form of a new Cold War,” he said. 

Moon added that a worsening of U.S.-China tensions will make it difficult to resolve the North Korea issue peacefully.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but the Cold War era strategy worked and served South Korea’s national interest very well.

It has been long predicted that after the April elections that the Moon administration at some point would try and undermine international sanctions on North Korea. Well the President’s trial balloon specialist, Moon Chung-in is out now stating this very thing:

As an adviser to the former Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun administrations, he attended the first, second and third inter-Korean summits in Pyongyang as a special delegate. With regard to President Moon Jae-in’s North Korea policy, the professor stressed that the President will continue to find niches for cooperation and exchanges with North Korea and be able to persuade the U.S. to allow inter-Korean economic projects. 

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

To Moon Chung-in, North Korea's threats to the country that has guaranteed South Korea's security for 70 years, UN & US sanctions designed to check those threats, & South Korea's eagerness to violate those sanctions are all America's fault. Nothing is ever Kim Jong-un's fault. https://t.co/OcAxuN38yX

— Joshua Stanton (@freekorea_us) September 24, 2019

It is being reported that President Moon’s trial balloon specialist, Moon Chung-in who has spoke about ending the US-ROK alliance and has advocated for helping North Korea evade sanctions may be picked to be the next ambassador to the United States:

Conservatives squawked Thursday about the possibility that President Moon Jae-in will send special adviser Moon Chung-in to Washington as Korea’s ambassador. 

“How can you possibly send a destroyer of the Korea-U.S. alliance to be ambassador to the United States?” Chairman Hwang Kyo-ahn of the Liberty Korea Party (LKP) said Thursday during a meeting of the party leadership.

Hwang was reacting to media reports saying that the president’s special adviser for foreign affairs and national security would be named to replace current U.S. Ambassador Cho Yoon-je. 

“This is the worst example of the president’s arrogance and high-handedness,” Hwang said. “[Moon Chung-in] even argued that the Korea-U.S. alliance must end. What will he do if he is appointed ambassador? We can never agree to such an appointment. The people won’t accept it either.” 

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link, but the best to think of Moon Chung-in is as the anti-John Bolton of South Korea.

Here is what President Moon’s trial balloon specialist had to say prior to next’s week summit between President Trump and President Moon:

The United States should give South Korea more leverage that it can use in dealing with North Korea, such as leeway in inter-Korean exchanges, if it wants Seoul to play a greater role in facilitating the stalled nuclear talks, a special presidential adviser said Thursday.

Moon Chung-in, a special presidential adviser for unification, foreign and security affairs, made the remark during a conference in Seoul, a week before Moon holds talks with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington.

The adviser said it will be a “herculean task” for Moon to play such a facilitating role so long as the North sees South Korea and the U.S. as on the same side.

Yonhap

I am being facetious here, but shouldn’t the U.S. and the ROK be on the same side when it comes to the denuclearization talks so the North Koreans cannot play one off against the other?

Any reading this site for long knows that the Moon administration is not really on the same side as the US and Moon Chung-in is just publicly stating what President Moon can’t. The Moon administration has long advocated lifting sanctions on the Kaesong Industrial Park and the Kumgang Tourism Resort. Both projects were once huge cash cows for the Kim regime before they were shut down by prior conservative governments.

North Korea wants to reopen these sanction busing projects for little to nothing in return as part of their “pretend denuclearization” strategy that the Moon administration endorses.

It looks like the Kim regime is not happy with what the Trump administration is offering for the Trump-Kim II Summit and have had President Moon send out his trial balloon guru Moon Chung-in to let Washington know of their displeasure:

Only North Koreans can dismantle nuclear and missile facilities in North Korea, not international experts, according to President Moon Jae-in’s security adviser, Moon Chung-in.

Moon said Washington should offer some substantial concessions beyond opening a liaison office in Pyongyang to make the upcoming second Washington-Pyongyang summit successful.

He made the remarks in an interview with Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun.

“Only North Korean technicians are able to disband its nuclear warheads safely and completely,” said Moon, special adviser for unification, diplomacy and national security.

“This is because the North Korean experts designed and outlined core specifics of its nuclear facilities and entirely handled the nuclear development. It’s required for the United States to offer a rewards programs to help the regime remain cooperative in the ongoing collective work toward dismantling its nuclear program.”

The adviser didn’t say whether the U.S. officially asked North Korea to hand over a list of nuclear experts who were directly involved in the development of its intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as one of the prerequisites to comply with Washington’s repeated calls to disband its nuclear program, verifiably and completely.

North Korea tested its first ICBM ― the Hwasong-14 ― on July 4, 2017, shocking the world by demonstrating advanced capabilities beyond what many believed possible for the rogue country.

The Trump administration initially refused to believe it, but later acknowledged that North Korea had, in fact, launched an ICBM. ICBMs are regarded as a direct threat to the U.S. mainland, though it’s still unconvinced North Korea has mastered warhead miniaturization, re-entry systems and missile guidance due to technological challenges. 

The presidential aide told the Japanese daily that North Korea “would be dissatisfied” if the United States only agreed to end the Korean War and open a liaison office in the North Korean capital as these are “superficial and not something relating to actual economic benefits the North want.”

“An early restart of economic projects with South Korea such as reopening of Gaeseong Industrial Complex and other economic projects are needed, as one evident point is Kim Jong-un most wants sanctions relief to revive his country’s dilapidated economy with financial assistance from the restarts of now-halted inter-Korean business projects,” Moon said.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

Everyone needs to remember that Moon Chung-in is the trial balloon specialist for the Moon Jae-in administration.  Because the US will not drop sanctions until North Korea denuclearizes it appears that the South Koreans are instead going to try and get around sanctions by throwing around the term “humanitarian assistance” and even more strangely “humanitarian businesses”:

Moon Chung-in, a special presidential adviser for unification, foreign and security affairs, made the remark during a lecture in Seoul, reiterating President Moon’s earlier remark that rewards for the North’s denuclearization steps do not necessarily have to be a relaxation of sanctions.

“Many American citizens wish to conduct humanitarian businesses in North Korea, but cannot due to government restrictions,” the adviser said. “Relieving those restrictions could send a fairly positive message to North Korea.”

This shouldn’t come as a surprise to any following the denuclearization negotiations that Moon Chung-in wants the US to drop sanctions for little or nothing in return from North Korea:

Washington remains largely skeptical of the North Korean leader’s intention to denuclearize.

Amid these circumstances, a special adviser to the President stated a paradigm shift may be necessary.

“The U.S. views North Korea in the frame of crime and punishment ―- this is its social construct of reality that North Korea cheats and lies,” Moon Chung-in, a special presidential adviser for unification, diplomacy and national security affairs, told The Korea Times in an interview at his office last week.

“But if it only looks at Pyongyang through this frame there is no way out. There needs to be a more pragmatic, flexible approach to North Korea.”

Stalled talks

Moon attributes the stall in denuclearization talks between North Korea and the U.S. to differences surrounding when to lift sanctions.

“Basically the stance of the U.S. is that sanctions will be lifted when North Korea achieves complete denuclearization, which North Korea cannot accept,” he said.

He pointed out that while Pyongyang initially called only for a declaration ending the war, it is now stating this is not enough because Kim offered to permanently dismantle the Yongbyon nuclear facility in his third summit with Moon held in Pyongyang. The U.S., meanwhile, wants North Korea to disclose its nuclear arsenal and submit to inspections, the adviser said.

However, Pyongyang would be unwilling to report its entire nuclear inventory for two reasons, he said.

“First, why would North Korea hand over a list of its inventory while relations with the U.S. are still hostile? This would leave the regime defenseless,” Moon said.

The other reason is based on the inherent nature of declaring inventory.

“The U.S. states that North Korea has 60 to 65 nuclear warheads, but if it has less than this amount, the U.S. will never believe it even if Pyongyang makes a declaration. Washington will continue to call for additional reports and the process will fall through. This will leave North Korea in a worse situation than before making the report.”

This is why Pyongyang is calling for a trust relationship to be built first, he said.

“The North is seeking a non-aggression relationship through the declaration ending the war, and for the U.S. to take corresponding measures for the shutting down of the Yongbyon facility in a verifiable way ―- such as lifting sanctions,” he said.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but Moon Chung-in is the ROK administration’s trial balloon specialist to judge American reaction to proposed ideas.  In the past year Moon Chung-in has stated his opposition to the THAAD battery in South Korea and has hinted at ending the US-ROK alliance.  He has even said the US US should recognize North Korea as a nuclear power which is a curious position since he says North Korea is planning to supposedly denuclearize.