Tag: missile test

As I speculated yesterday, the Kim regime has confirmed the missile test is linked to the upcoming joint exercise:

Anchor: North Korea has confirmed that it test-fired “new tactical guided weapons” on Thursday, with leader Kim Jong-un personally overseeing the launches. The North’s state-media described the provocations as a “solemn warning” to South Korea. 

Kim Bum-soo has more.

Report: After firing two short-range ballistic missiles into the East Sea Thursday, North Korea has issued a warning to South Korea. 

The North’s state-run media said Friday that leader Kim Jong-un personally oversaw what it called a “new tactical guided weapon” test in a show of military might.

The Korean Central News Agency(KCNA) said the launch is a “solemn warning” to South Korean “military warmongers,” who were described as “running high fever in their moves to introduce the ultramodern offensive weapons and hold military exercises in defiance of the repeated warnings.” 

Earlier this month, the South Korean Air Force received two U.S.-built F-35A stealth fighter jets and hopes to deploy a total of 40 by 2021. Seoul and Washington are also scheduled to stage their joint 19-2 Dongmaeng military exercise next month. 

In an apparent reference to President Moon Jae-in, Kim was cited as advising the “South Korean authority” to “stop such suicidal acts as adopting new weapons and military exercises.” Kim also urged Moon to return to his reconciliatory position on display during the inter-Korean summits last year.

KBS World Radio

You can read more at the link, but notice how North Korea has no problem bashing President Moon, but are unwilling to criticize President Trump. This is because they are still hoping that President Trump will relax sanctions on them for a freeze deal. A freeze deal means they give up nothing because they are just required to stop testing. They can restart testing at a time of their choosing after collecting enough foreign revenue and then blame the U.S. for the failure of the deal.

Kim Jong-un has always said that he is waiting until the end of the year for a deal to be reached. If a deal is not reached he could restart ICBM testing. He is giving the Trump administration a preview of what he could start doing right in the middle of President Trump’s re-election campaign next year if a deal is not struck.

Here is the latest provocation from North Korea:

North Korea on Thursday fired two new short-range ballistic missiles, Seoul officials said, in an apparent move to put pressure on the United States ahead of possible nuclear talks between the two sides.

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said that Pyongyang fired one missile toward the East Sea at around 5:34 a.m. and the other at 5:57 a.m. from Hodo Peninsula near its eastern coastal town of Wonsan. They flew around 430 kilometers and 690 km, respectively, both at an altitude of around 50 km. 

The test came 77 days after Pyongyang’s short-range missile launch in early May. (……..)

Experts have said Thursday’s launches appear to have involved the North’s version of Russia’s Iskander, a short-range, ground-to-ground ballistic missile known as KN-23, as it test-fired in May.

Yonhap

What is significant about the Iskander is that it is a solid fuel missile. What this means is that unlike a liquid fuel missile it does not need to be fueled before launching. The act of fueling missiles takes time and could be observed while a solid fuel missile can be simply rolled out and fired.

What About THAAD?

The Iskander also has a lower flight trajectory which gives it a shorter time of flight which reduces decision making time. In the article they claim the Iskander makes the THAAD system ineffective. The article fails to mention there are different missile defense systems for different threats. For lower flying trajectories that is what the Patriot missile batteries located around South Korea are for.

THAAD was never meant to be a magic bullet that engages all threats on the peninsula. THAAD engages targets at higher altitudes than Patriot. One of the main reasons it was deployed was because of the threat of lofted trajectory missiles that North Korea was testing.

Additionally, by using a lofted flight trajectory, North Korea could use medium-range and intermediate-range missiles to strike South Korean targets over shorter distances by firing them at higher angles. For example, on June 22, 2016, North Korea was able to limit the distance of the intermediate-range Musudan missile to around 400 kilometers (from a normal distance of more than 3,000 kilometers) by using this lofting method. In this scenario, the warhead is traveling at a high velocity by the end of its trajectory, thereby undermining the effectiveness of the Patriot missile system.

Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy

Now the North Koreans are testing a lower flying system that Patriot can engage, but once again it is not the flight profile that is of the most concern, it is the solid fuel capability that allows them rapidly fire these missiles with little early warning.

Why Test Now?

So why did the North Koreans fire this missile now? First of all the yet to be named joint US-ROK exercise is still scheduled to be executed next month. The exercise gives the Kim regime cover to conduct this test to further prove its capability. Additionally this keeps pressure on the Trump administration to give-in to North Korean demands to lift some of the sanctions in return for a freeze on missile testing.

Kim Jong-un has always said that he is waiting until the end of the year for a deal to be reached. If a deal is not reached he could restart ICBM testing. He is giving the Trump administration a preview of what he could start doing right in the middle of President Trump’s re-election campaign next year if a deal is not struck.

Does anyone think these missile provocations from North Korea are just a coincidence that they occurred after Kim Jong-un’s summit with Vladimir Putin?:

North Korea has conducted long-range strike drills, state media reported Friday, a day after the communist state launched what were presumed to be two short-range missiles into the East Sea.
“At the command post, Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un learned about a plan of the strike drill of various long-range strike means and gave an order of start of the drill,” the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said in English.
“The successful drill of deployment and strike designed to inspect the ability of rapid reaction of the defense units… showed the might of the units which were fully prepared to proficiently carry out any operation and combat,” it added.
He also set forth “important tasks for further increasing the strike ability of the defense units,” the KCNA said. It said the drills were conducted at “defence units of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) in the forefront area and on the western front.”
The KCNA did not elaborate on the “long-range strike means.” But South Korea’s military said the North is believed to have launched two short-range missiles from its northwestern region into the East Sea, which flew 420 kilometers and 270 km, respectively.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but clearly the North Koreans are messaging that they are unhappy about not getting a “pretend denuclearization” deal agreed upon.

However, I would not be surprised if Putin is encouraging this as well. The US has put tremendous pressure on the Maduro administration in Venezuela and I would not be surprised if Putin is using North Korean provocations to distract US efforts there.

I guessed that the North Koreans would next fire short range missiles and sure enough they did:

North Korea fired two apparent short-range missiles on Thursday, South Korea’s military said, less than a week after the communist state launched a missile into the sea off its east coast.
The move threatened to raise tensions as the main U.S. envoy for North Korea, Stephen Biegun, was visiting Seoul in an effort to get stalled nuclear talks with the North back on track.
South Korea’s presidential office expressed concern about the launches, saying they were “not helpful at all to to efforts to try to improve inter-Korean relations and ease military tension” on the divided peninsula.
“Noth Korea fired two unidentified projectiles estimated to be short-range missiles” in an eastern direction from the northwestern area of Kusong, according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff in Seoul.

Stars & Stripes

You can read more at the link, but at least the ROK government is now calling these “missiles” instead of “projectiles”:

North Korea fired what were believed to be two short-range missiles on Thursday, South Korea’s military said, just five days after the communist nation launched a barrage of projectiles into the East Sea.
The projectiles were fired from the northwestern area of Kusong in an easterly direction, one of them at 4:29 p.m. and the other at 4:39 p.m., and flew about 420 kilometers and 270 km, respectively, with their altitude reaching around 50 km, the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said, adding they splashed into the East Sea.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link. I don’t expect the Kim regime to move up and fire an Intermediate Range Missile and especially and Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile until talks with the U.S. have basically collapsed. Testing those two weapons is clearly directed at the United States since IRBMs are used to target Guam and ICBMs the US mainland, Alaska, and Hawaii.

If the North Koreans want to increase tensions further look for them to start firing missiles closer to Japan’s territorial waters or even eventually into them.

It looks like North Korea has decided to fire a battlefield rocket which allows them to slowly increase tensions without creating a full blown crisis that firing a ballistic missile would do:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on Wednesday supervised a test firing of a “new-type tactical guided weapon” developed by an institute responsible for its missile program, according to state media. 

The development of the new weapon system was an “event of very weighty significance in increasing the combat power of the People’s Army,” read the state-run Rodong Sinmun’s English report on the test, which attributed the system’s development to the Academy of Defense Science. 

Several military analysts in South Korea said it could be a variation of a short-range ballistic missile launcher imported from Russia called the 9K720 Iskander, which North Korea displayed at a military parade in Pyongyang last February. 

The only description of the weapon itself in the Rodong Sinmun report was that its “design indexes” had “advantages … appreciated for the peculiar mode of guiding flight,” indicating that it was outfitted with a type of guidance system. The test involved “various modes of firing at different targets” that verified “the load of a powerful warhead,” the report added.

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link, but Kim Jong-un promised President Trump to suspend missile and nuclear tests. When he decides to fire a ballistic missile is when we know negotiations are over. This test was just a warning to the Trump administration that the Kim regime is losing patience and want their “pretend denuclearization” deal.

I agree they may not be preparing for a missile launch in the near term, but they are definitely reconstructing the launch site to prepare for a future launch if needed to pressure the Trump administration:

 South Korean Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo said Monday that he does not view North Korea’s recent activities at its long-range rocket launch site as preparations for a missile launch.
Recent media reports and U.S. think tank analyses on activities at the North’s west coast Dongchang-ri launch site and the Sanumdong missile research center near Pyongyang have fueled the speculation about a possible missile or satellite launch.
“Describing them missile-related activities is a hasty judgment,” Jeong said during a session of the National Assembly’s defense committee. “Though Dongchang-ri is a launch site, we don’t judge them as activities in preparation for a missile launch.”

he communist regime has been seen rebuilding the Dongchang-ri missile launch facility it partially dismantled last year. Some analysts said that it might be a negotiation tactic following the breakup of the second summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Hanoi last month.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

Interesting… https://t.co/Ps0Kq5cvaM

— tomcoyner (@tomcoyner) June 7, 2018

It looks like the US media may be misinterpreting whatever information was leaked to them about an impending North Korea ICBM test:

South Korea’s defense authorities said Thursday there has been no indication of an imminent missile test by North Korea, responding to U.S. news reports that the secretive nation appears to be preparing to fire another intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

“There is no activity that would lead to an assessment that a missile provocation by North Korea is imminent,” Army Col. Roh Jae-cheon, spokesman for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at a press briefing.

He pointed out, however, that it’s possible for the North to press ahead with a missile provocation anytime, adding South Korea and the United States are closely monitoring related situations.

Earlier this week, CBS News reported that the North has resumed its missile activity at the same site it shot an ICBM in November.

Newsweek also quoted U.S. officials as saying a new missile test may come as soon as later this week or next week.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

Via a reader tip comes an interesting article in The Diplomat that discusses how a failed North Korean missile test in April 2017 came crashing down on a North Korean city:

What happens when a North Korean ballistic missile test fails in flight and explodes in a populated area? On April 28, 2017, North Korea launched a single Hwasong-12/KN17 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) from Pukchang Airfield in South Pyongan Province (the Korean People’s Army’s Air and Anti-Air Force Unit 447 in Ryongak-dong, Sunchon City, to be more precise). That missile failed shortly after launch and crashed in the Chongsin-dong, in North Korean city of Tokchon, causing considerable damage to a complex of industrial or agricultural buildings.

According to a U.S. government source with knowledge of North Korea’s weapons programs who spoke to The Diplomat, the missile’s first stage engines failed after approximately one minute of powered flight, resulting in catastrophic failure. The missile never flew higher than approximately 70 kilometers. The location of the missile’s eventual impact was revealed exclusively to The Diplomat and evidence of the incident can be independently corroborated in commercially available satellite imagery from April and May 2017.

The April 28 failure merits close analysis, especially as North Korea continues to carry out flight-testing of its various ballistic missile platforms from a range of new test sites. In 2017, North Korea has introduced new sites for missile testing, arguably to demonstrate the flexibility of its Strategic Rocket Force. It has even carried out ballistic missile launches from a restricted area at Pyongyang’s Sunan Airport, which also serves as the country’s primary civil aviation facility and the entrypoint for most non-Chinese foreign visitors to North Korea. The potential for similar accidents occurring over Pyongyang, the country’s capital, or other populated regions remains high, especially with untested systems.

These risks may even serve to explain why North Korea chose to use the seaside town of Sinpo as its initial test site for the first two failed Hwasong-12 launches in April. An early in-flight failure over the sea would have a lower chance of striking any human infrastructure — certainly populated urban areas. However, since April, North Korea has not carried out any further ballistic missile testing from Sinpo (with the exception of four submarine-launched ballistic missile ejection tests).  [The Diplomat]

I recommend reading the whole thing at the link to include viewing the interesting satellite imagery.

Could an Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile test be the next North Korean provocation?  I guess we will find out:

The Pentagon says the U.S. is “well postured” to deal with a possible submarine-launched ballistic missile from North Korea.

The Japanese daily Tokyo Shimbun reported last week that North Korea has completed development of five prototypes for an upgraded SLBM and will likely test it soon.

Pentagon spokesman Robert Manning wouldn’t comment on any matters of specific intelligence regarding North Korea on Monday – but said within the deep arsenal of U.S. capabilities, Washington is well postured to deal with it.  [KBS Global]

You can read more at the link, but an SLBM test is something that has been speculated on for many months.