Tag: Mike Pompeo

It looks like a second Trump-Kim summit is coming:

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo hailed “progress” in discussions with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang, Sunday (KST), saying the two had a “productive conversation” in taking steps toward denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula.

“I don’t have much to add. I would certainly tell you in private about our conversation. But we had a good productive conversation. As President Trump said there are many steps along the way and we took one of them today with another step forward. This is I think a good outcome for all of us,” Pompeo told President Moon Jae-in at Cheong Wa Dae late Sunday.

Pompeo said Kim had agreed to hold a second summit with U.S. President Donald Trump “as early as possible,” adding working-level discussions between the two countries to set a date and location would take place soon.

President Moon responded that the second summit between Trump and Kim would be “decisive progress” in Pyongyang’s denuclearization process.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but my guess is that the second Trump-Kim summit will announce an end to the Korean War.  The Kim regime wants the peace treaty so badly because it then challenges the legitimacy of the US military presence in South Korea.  If there is peace why is USFK needed?

ROK President Moon has been saying all the right things that USFK will remain after any peace treaty is signed.  Despite claims in the media that Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in want US troops to stay after any peace deal is reached, but this is just all rhetoric to prevent energizing South Korean conservatives against Moon.

Remember Moon is a very skilled politician that needs to keep the Korean right at bay and public anxiety down.  If he advocated openly for a USFK withdrawal that would give the South Korean right an issue to strongly attack him with and cause much public anxiety after decades of security guarantees provided by US forces.  That is why I think the Moon administration will publicly say they support USFK staying, but will then have their surrogates do things to make life difficult for USFK.

If the US government decides to withdraw USFK in the future on their own accord then the Moon administration is able to get what it ultimately wanted without getting blamed for it.

It looks like a Trump-Kim Summit Part 2 will be closer to happening with the announcement that Secretary of State Pompeo is making another trip to North Korea:

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will travel to North Korea next week to meet with its leader, Kim Jong-un, the State Department said Tuesday.

Pompeo will visit Pyongyang Sunday as the U.S. pushes to dismantle the regime’s nuclear weapons program and set up a second summit between President Donald Trump and Kim.

At their first summit in Singapore in June, Kim agreed to work toward “complete” denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in exchange for security guarantees from the U.S.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but if there is a second summit there is going to have to be major announcement that comes out of it and suspect it will be an agreement to end the Korean War which the ROK and North Korea have been wanting by the end of this year.

This rhetoric of ending the Korean War has been going on for months because the Kim regime wants the peace treaty because it then challenges the legitimacy of the military presence in South Korea.  If there is peace why is USFK needed?

President Moon is saying all the right things that USFK will remain after any peace treaty is signed.  Despite claims in the media that Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in want US troops to stay after any peace deal is reached, this is just all rhetoric to prevent energizing South Korean conservatives against Moon.

Remember Moon is a very skilled politician that needs to keep the Korean right at bay and public anxiety down.  If he advocated openly for a USFK withdrawal that would give the South Korean right an issue to strongly attack him with and cause much public anxiety after decades of security guarantees provided by US forces.  That is why I think the Moon administration will publicly say they support USFK staying, but will then have their surrogates do things to make life difficult for USFK.

If the US government decides to withdraw USFK in the future on their own accord then the Moon administration is able to get what it ultimately wanted without getting blamed for it.

Personally I will believe a dawn of a new day has begun when North Korea’s nuclear material is being shipped out of the country.  I really do hope that happens, but I remain skeptical:

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Thursday hailed the “dawn of a new day” with North Korea as the U.S. pushes diplomacy to denuclearize the regime.

Chairing a meeting of the United Nations Security Council in New York, Pompeo sounded a hopeful note on the diplomatic negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang.

But he also called for strict enforcement of all U.N. Security Council sanctions on Pyongyang until denuclearization is achieved.

“Past diplomatic attempts to halt North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile development were unsuccessful,” Pompeo said. “But now we’re at the dawn of a new day.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but despite all the flowery language, Secretary Pompeo is continuing to emphasize keeping the sanctions in place on the Kim regime.

This is just another indication that President Trump is not about to sign up for a “pretend denuclearization” deal with the North Koreans like Seoul, Beijing, and Moscow want him to do:

South Korea on Saturday called the U.S. decision to call off a trip to North Korea by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo unfortunate and said that continued diplomacy was most crucial in resolving the nuclear standoff with Pyongyang.

The statement by the Foreign Ministry in Seoul came hours after President Donald Trump directed Pompeo to delay his trip because of what he saw as a lack of progress on nuclear disarmament talks with the North. Trump also said the nuclear negotiations with North Korea have been hampered by the lack of support from China, the North’s only major ally that’s engaged in an intensifying trade dispute with the United States.

While describing the delayed trip as a setback, the ministry said it would be most important for the allies to pursue “substantial progress” on denuclearization. South Korea expects China to continue serving a “constructive role” in international efforts to solve the nuclear crisis and noted that Beijing continues to express commitment to fully implement sanctions against the North, the ministry said.

“While we consider the delay of the visit to North Korea as unfortunate, we believe it’s most important for the North Korea-U.S. dialogue including Secretary Pompeo’s visits to North Korea to contribute to substantial progress in complete denuclearization and the establishment of a permanent peace regime in the Korean Peninsula.”  [Associated Press]

You can read more at the link, but what is going on is that I think President Trump is sending a message to not only North Korea, but to Beijing and Seoul as well.  China is not strictly enforcing sanctions on North Korea and even the South Koreans have not been effectively enforcing sanctions either.  This is going to come down to who is going to blink first because the North Koreans will not commit to real denuclearization unless sanctions are fully enforced on them.  As long as other countries like China continue to not strictly enforce sanctions the Kim regime will feel no expediency to denuclearize at the pace the Trump administration wants.

So will this be the visit where the Trump administration gives in and allows sanctions to be dropped against North Korea for little to nothing in return?  I guess we will see:

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s upcoming Pyongyang visit is expected to break the ongoing political stalemate surrounding the timeline of North Korea’s denuclearization, experts said Monday.

The sign of hope comes at a time when no outstanding progress has been made over the issue following the historic June 12 summit between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

A specific timeline for Pompeo’s visit to the North Korean capital has yet to be confirmed. But with U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton saying recently that Pompeo will “soon” make his fourth visit to Pyongyang, expectations are he will visit the regime sometime between the end of this month and the beginning of next month.

“Pompeo has failed to generate specific outcomes over the denuclearization dialogue with North Korea during his previous visits to Pyongyang,” said Kim Sang-ki, director at the Korea Institute for National Unification’s policy division.

“My view is that his upcoming visit is aimed at creating tangible achievements to put an end to the ongoing deadlock in denuclearization talks with North Korea. In this regard, Washington may push for conditions that would lead to declaring an end to the 1950-53 Korean War.”  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.

We could all see this coming, the leftists in the Moon administration want to get special exceptions to the international sanctions on North Korea:

South Korea’s Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha on Monday rejected concerns about Seoul’s alleged move to ease international sanctions on Pyongyang, saying it is seeking an “exception” to facilitate cross-border exchanges.

Kang made the remarks upon arrival from her visit to the United States, amid media speculation that she stressed the need for an easing of the sanctions during her meetings with the U.N. Security Council member states.

“Now is not a phase when sanctions are being eased. … It is not an easing of sanctions,” the minister said. “(What I stressed) was to get exceptions from the sanctions, which are needed for inter-Korean projects.”

Since early this year, concerns have persisted that Seoul’s push for an increase in cross-border exchanges could contribute to an unraveling of the sanctions regime, which analysts said has helped Pyongyang change its calculus on its nuclear program.

Asked about whether her visit to the U.S. this time was aimed at playing a role as an intermediary between Washington and Pyongyang, Kang stressed the importance of communication between the allies.  [Yonhap]

If the Trump administration allows the easing of sanctions that would allow the reopening of the Kaesong Industrial Complex and the joint-tourism projects in North Korea they might as well scrap the sanctions all together.  These former joint-projects were major generators of foreign revenue for the Kim regime that gave them the resources necessary to develop their nuclear program in the first place.

Wouldn’t it be great if when Secretary of State Pompeo meets with Kang Kyung-wha he instead briefs her on a plan to introduce new sanctions due to nothing significant having been reaching on North Korea’s denuclearization?

Pompeo's and NK's contrasting descriptions of their meeting sounds like his/her post-blinddate talks with their friends:
Him: The date went great! We really hit it off. I think she's my soulmate!
Her: He's a loser but he likes to buy me things. I'll string him along for a while.

— Bruce Klingner (@BruceKlingner) July 8, 2018

Just like when people emphasize North Korea following the China model, they can’t follow the Vietnam model either because neither country had to maintain a personality cult like the Kim regime does:

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo offered North Korean leader Kim Jong-un the Vietnamese model of normalization of bilateral relations with Washington and economic prosperity, speaking in Hanoi on Sunday on the heels of a two-day trip to Pyongyang.

“In light of the once-unimaginable prosperity and partnership we have with Vietnam today, I have a message for [North Korean] Chairman Kim Jong-un,” said Pompeo at a business event at the Sofitel Metropole Hotel in Hanoi. “[U.S. President Donald] Trump believes your country can replicate this path. It’s yours if you’ll seize the moment … it can be your miracle in North Korea as well.”  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link.

This was an encouraging response from Secretary of State Pompeo to North Korean claims of “gangster demands”:

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Sunday his country is making fair demands on North Korea in denuclearization talks, refuting its strongly worded criticism following his latest trip to Pyongyang.

The North openly expressed disappointment over what he put forward during a hourslong bargaining with Kim Yong-chol, a top North Korean official, on Thursday and Friday.

Pompeo presented a “unilateral and gangster-like” demand for “complete, verifiable and irreversible” denuclearization (CVID), the North’s foreign ministry said in a statement issued after his departure.

“If those requests were ‘gangster-like’ then the world is a gangster, because there was a unanimous decision at the U.N. Security Council about what needs to be achieved,” the secretary said in the first U.S. response to the North’s assertion that added to skepticism over future negotiations.

He was speaking at a joint press conference with his South Korean and Japanese counterparts — Kang Kyung-wha and Taro Kono — in Tokyo.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but the irony of this is that North Korea is often called the “Sopranos State” and they are ones accusing the US of gangster demands.

Probably the most positive sign in the article is that Pompeo says the sanctions will remain in place:

“Sanctions will remain in place until final, fully verified denuclearization,” Pompeo stressed. “While we are encouraged by the progress of these talks, progress alone does not justify the relaxation of the existing sanctions regime.”

The denuclearization of Korea covers not just nuclear bombs but also missiles, he said, adding North Korean officials also understand that.

On the trustworthiness issue, he said, “There will be a verification connected to the complete denuclearization.”

Like I have always said if the US drops sanctions for little to nothing in return then hit the panic button.  People just need to be patient and let what I think is Kim’s final chance to rejoin the world community to play out.

Chosun Ilbo: Mike Pompeo is literally bringing a copy of Elton John's "Rocket Man" record to Kim Jong Un https://t.co/OY8eIGNudP

— Jonathan Cheng (@JChengWSJ) July 6, 2018