Robert Gallucci the former nuclear negotiator with North Korea during the Clinton administration recently sat down and conducted an interview with the Joong Ang Ilbo about the upcoming Trump-Kim summit. Here is an excerpt from the interview:
Former diplomat Robert Gallucci, chairman of the U.S.-Korea Institute at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, sits for an interview at the university in Washington on March 8. [LEE GWANG-JO]Q. Do you think a “one-shot” negotiation is possible between Trump and Kim Jong-un at the first U.S.-North Korea summit?
A. First of all, it never occurred to me that this would be a one-shot negotiation. It is hard for me to believe that anybody familiar with the complexity of the issues would think that anybody — and I do mean anybody — could sit down at a negotiation and work out all the differences between the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and the United States in one session. It is, for me, inconceivable. If you accept that, that means that if this is going to be a successful engagement, the summit between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump will be the start of a series of talks which will be top-down, because you can’t go higher up. So that means that there would be presumably professional diplomats or at least representatives of both governments who would then meet someplace or at an extended period of time, back and forth, to work out the details of an agreement. I cannot see a single session solving this problem.
What issue will be most hotly contested at the U.S.-North Korea summit?
If I look back to 1994 and to the 2000s, transparency, verification, monitoring, that’s always a difficult matter in the negotiation where we are looking to limit capability on both nuclear weapons and delivery vehicles. I imagine what’s in the mind of the American side is that they would want to reach an agreement in which the North Koreans commit to giving up their nuclear weapons program, that they want a nuclear weapons-free peninsula. So you can imagine North Koreans saying, “Sure. It’s done. We dismantled all our nuclear weapons yesterday. Everything’s done. Now, here’s what we would like.”
We might say, “We think the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) needs to get back in and do what it considers a full scope of safeguards.” North Koreans might hop on, maybe not. So what I’m saying here, you want to know where I see the greatest sensitivity will be, it will be on gaining agreement by the North Koreans to adequate measures to permit transparency, to permit monitoring of the agreement and ultimate verification of compliance with the agreement. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
You can read more at the link, but let me remind everyone that Mr. Gallucci is the guy a few months ago that said even a deal North Korea cheats on is still a good deal. I have so far seen no indications that the Trump administration is ready to sign up for any deal that allows North Korea to cheat.
I have no idea whether the accusation that the South Korean K-Pop group Red Velvet is pro-Communism or not, but I just find it ironic that these performers are so eager to perform for a man that puts his own people into labor camps for watching South Korean entertainment. The hypocrisy on display is truly incredible:
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, right, talks to Red Velvet members, left, after the Sunday performance at the East Pyongyang Grand Theater. / Yonhap
After the two-hour show at the East Pyongyang Grand Theater starting at 6:30 p.m., Kim met and shook hands with each musician, including four members of Red Velvet. The popular band from SM Entertainment was short of one member ― Joy, also an actress.
SM announced Saturday that she could not travel to the North because she was filming MBC’s TV drama “The Great Seducer,” in which she has a leading role.
Before its Pyongyang visit, the band had stirred controversy, with suggestions by some netizens that the South Korean Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism had selected the band because it endorsed the North’s communism. Some suggested a parallel between communism’s symbolic color of red, the band’s name and one of its hits, “Red Flavor.”
Kim said after meeting the musicians, “many people had wondered whether I would come to the Sunday performance and watch Red Velvet.” The comment hinted that he knew about the Red Velvet controversy, but he did not elaborate. He said he had planned to watch the North-South joint performance on Tuesday, but had changed his schedule.
The band, the youngest stars among the troupe, performed dance numbers “Red Flavor” and “Bad Boy.”
Joy’s absence had divided fans. Some saw it as unacceptable because despite her busy acting schedule she had joined the band’s Tokyo concert on March 28-29. Fans wondered that if she had performed in Japan why she could not also have found time for Pyongyang.
A South Korean cultural critic said her absence from the North was “an example of the mass-narcissism evident among South Korean celebrities.” [Korea Times]
North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un and his wife Ri Sol-ju are surrounded by South Korean musicians after their joint concert at the East Pyongyang Grand Theater, Sunday. / Joint Press Corps [Korea Times]
Kim Jong-un is continuing his charm offensive in the lead up to his summit with Present Moon Jae-in later this month:
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (L) talks with South Korea’s culture minister Do Jong-whan during a performance by a South Korean art troupe in Pyongyang in this photo captured from a pool video on April 1, 2018. (Yonhap)
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and his wife attended a historic performance in Pyongyang by a South Korean art troupe on Sunday, the South Korean culture ministry said.
The couple was present for the concert by the 160-member South Korean art troupe at East Pyongyang Grand Theatre, a pool report said. The group included 11 Korean pop musicians such as Cho Yong-pil, Lee Sun-hee, Choi Jin-hee, Red Velvet and Seohyun of Girls’ Generation.
Kim became the first North Korean leader to attend a performance by a South Korean artistic group.
His appearance was somewhat expected as South Korean President Moon Jae-in attended the Seoul performance by a North Korean art troupe called “Samjiyon Orchestra” in February in celebration of the PyeongChang Winter Olympics in the South.
A pool report said the North Korean leader’s sister Kim Yo-jong and the country’s nominal head of state Kim Yong-nam attended the performance as well.
The North Korean leader also insisted that the two Koreas should hold cultural performances more often, suggesting that there should be another event in Seoul around fall. [Yonhap]
This photo capture from North Korea’s Central TV on March 29, 2018, shows a set of gifts that Chinese President Xi Jinping gave to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Kim traveled to Beijing, his first trip outside his country since taking power in late 2011, from March 25-28 and held talks with Xi. The talks between the two close allies preceded Kim’s planned summits with the leaders of South Korea and the United States. (Yonhap)
That is what the Korea Times is speculating about:
Vladimir Putin
With North Korean leader Kim Jong-un making a surprise visit to China, chances are that the dictator will also hold dialogue with Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
The possibility has risen after Kim ended his four-day state visit to Beijing on Wednesday. Kim, accompanied by his wife, Ri Sol-ju, met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
The meeting between the two leaders came at a time when the North Korean leader plans to hold dialogue with President Moon Jae-in and United States President Donald Trump in April and May, respectively.
Kim’s unprecedented active determination for dialogue also raises hopes for a possible meeting with the Russian leader.
The Kremlin dismissed the possibility for a potential summit between Kim and Vladimir Putin. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Wednesday that no schedule for the summit has been arranged and is not under review at the moment.
But chances are that Pyongyang and Moscow could join hands, as Russia also apparently hopes to play a part in the ongoing North Korea nuclear issues. [Korea Times]
I guess we will see over the next month if Putin wants to insert himself into the current negotiations going on over the future of the Korean peninsula.
North Korea’s top leader Kim Jong-un (2nd from L) and his wife Ri Sol-ju (far L) pose for a photo with Chinese President Xi Jinping (2nd from R) and his wife Peng Liyuan at the state guest house Diaoyutai in Beijing on March 27, 2018, in Beijing, in this photo released by the Rodong Sinmun, the North’s ruling party newspaper, on March 28. After days of secrecy amid signs of such a meeting, the two countries confirmed that Kim traveled to Beijing from March 25-28 at Xi’s invitation. This is Kim’s first known overseas trip since taking power in late 2011. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
Here is the latest on Kim Jong-un’s trip to China this week:
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, left, shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing during an unannounced visit to the Chinese capital from Monday to Tuesday to discuss issues pertaining to the Korean Peninsula and bilateral relations. [YONHAP]North Korean leader Kim Jong-un made an unannounced visit to China from Monday to Tuesday on the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping, North Korea and China’s state news media confirmed Wednesday, an international diplomatic debut for a young leader who’s only weeks away from holding summits with Seoul and Washington.
It was Kim’s first known trip outside North Korea since he took power in December 2011 following his father’s death, and his first meeting with another government leader.
Rumors spread quickly Tuesday that either he or another high-level official from Pyongyang was in Beijing for talks with Xi, though neither the North Korean, Chinese or South Korean government gave any confirmation.
Photos uploaded online showed a vintage dark green North Korean train similar to the armored vehicle used by former North Korean leaders arriving in the Chinese capital.
Confirmation that Kim was in Beijing came only after he crossed back into North Korea on Wednesday morning. North Korea’s state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said Kim, 34, departed the North on Sunday and arrived in Beijing on Monday.
Upon his arrival, Kim met with Xi in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, where they “exchanged views on important matters including the development of DPRK-China friendly relations and the issue of handling the situation on the Korean Peninsula,” according to an English report from KCNA, using the acronym for North Korea’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
On denuclearization, Kim was quoted by China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency as saying it was his “consistent stand to be committed to denuclearization on the peninsula, in accordance with the will” of his father, Kim Jong-il, and grandfather, Kim Il Sung, who founded North Korea. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
Here is what will be the key to denuclearization talks, what will North Korea demand in return for giving up their nukes:
Neither KCNA nor Xinhua specified Kim’s definition of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, but North Korea watchers have long argued that Pyongyang’s meaning of the term would require Washington’s nuclear umbrella over South Korea and Japan to be removed and American soldiers stationed in the South withdrawn before it could consider giving up its nuclear arsenal.
This goes back to what I have long been saying, both the DPRK and China want to separate the US from the ROK and then eventually Japan. If the North Korean nuclear issue can do this, then this is in China’s interests as they seek region hegemony over Northeast Asia. That is likely why Chinese Premier Xi Jinping wanted to meet with Kim Jong-un to ensure Chinese interests are met during the upcoming negotiations with the ROK and the US and what rewards China would give to North Korea in return for advancing their interests.
