Tag: Kim Jong-il

North Korea Systematically Replacing Kim Family Statues

| July 29, 2015

It looks like there is an update to the cult of personality going on in North Korea:

In North Korea, there’s no escaping the Kim family.

“Eternal President” Kim Il Sung continues to reign — according to North Korean lore — 21 years after his death. His son, “Dear Leader” Kim Jong Il, died in 2011 but lies in state with his father in a huge mausoleum the size of Buckingham Palace on the outskirts of Pyongyang. And the grandson, “Great Successor” Kim Jong Un, is making sure none of his subjects forget about the family line — by strengthening the bizarre personality cult that the family has perpetuated during the past 60 years.

The latest outlet for Kimism: new statues. The regime has been tearing down statues of Kim Il Sung around the country — an act that must be require all sorts of hoopla since it’s a treasonous offense to even place a newspaper with a photo of one of the Kims face down — and replacing them with huge new statues of Kim Senior and Kim Junior.

“This looks like part of Kim Jong Un’s plan to solidify his hereditary succession, carry on his father’s mantle,” says Curtis Melvin, a North Korea researcher at the U.S.-Korea Institute at SAIS, Johns Hopkins, who has studied the country’s geography extensively using satellite imagery. He has noted the steady replacement of the statues over time, thanks to his remarkable knowledge of the country through Google Earth.  [Washington Post]

You can read the rest at the link.

Former President Lee’s Memoir Reveals that North Korea Demanded $10 Billion for Inter-Korean Summit

| January 31, 2015

I think former ROK President Lee Myung-bak was right to squash any summit hopes with such outrageous demands as this from the North Koreans:

When former South Korean president Kim Dae-jung met with the late Kim Jong-il on North Korean soil in 2000, it was seen as a landmark event and a huge step towards possible reunification. Whatever optimism the meeting inspired, however, was quashed when it was revealed the South Korean administration secretly paid hundreds of millions of dollars to make the summit happen.

lee myung-bak

According to former South Korean president Lee Myung-bak, Pyongyang set even steeper demands for a summit when Lee began his own term, which ran from 2008-2013. In his memoir The Times of the President, which is set to be published next week, Lee writes that Pyongyang demanded $10 billion in cash and half a million tons of food as part of a deal for Lee to meet Kim Jong-il.

“The document looked like some sort of standardized ‘summit bill’ with its list of assistance we had to provide and the schedule written up,” Lee writes, according to excerpts obtained by Reuters.

The “conditions for a summit” included 400,000 tons of rice, 100,000 tons of corn and 300,000 tons of fertilizer. The $10 billion would go towards setting up a development bank.

Lee flat out refused. “We shouldn’t be haggling for a summit,” he wrote.  [KoreAm Journal]

You can read the rest at the link, but President Lee’s predecessor Roh Moo-hyun was able to get a summit with Kim Jong-il because he was actually paying the North Koreans more per year than what the ROK was contributing to the US-ROK alliance at the time.

Gordon Chang Wonders If Kim Jong-un’s Regime Has Been Toppled

| October 6, 2014

Long time North Korea watcher Gordon Chang is wondering whether the North Korean regime has been toppled:

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Out of sight for a month, young Kim is supposedly ill. But rumors are swirling he’s been deposed—and North Korea’s second most powerful man now feels confident enough to travel South.
Hwang Pyong So must be feeling pretty good about himself right now. At the latest Supreme People’s Assembly meeting, he was made vice chairman of the National Defense Commission. This was after his promotion to director of the General Political Bureau of the Korean People’s Army, making him the top political officer in the military. In a country where there is supposed to be no No. 2 official, he is called the second-most powerful figure.

Now he has crossed the border into South Korea on a one-day, short-notice trip, triggering hopes of reconciliation between the arch-rival republics—and heightening speculation about the fate of Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s young supremo, who has not been seen in public since September 3.

Hwang’s trip South on Saturday comes on the heels of a widely publicized report that Kim has been deposed. Jang Jin Sung, a former North Korean counterintelligence and propaganda official, is claiming that the Organization and Guidance Department of the Korean Workers’ Party, responsible for promotions within the regime, has taken over the country. Kim, according to Jang, is now merely a “puppet.” [The Daily Beast]

I have said this before that I do not believe that Kim Jong-un has the absolute power that many people believe him to have.  I believe that his grandfather Kim Il-sung had absolute power, but when his son Kim Jong-il took over that the absolute power was diluted between the ruling Kim inner circle, the Worker’s Party, and the North Korean military.  These three sectors competed for power with the military ultimately becoming the most powerful bureaucracy in North Korea under Kim Jong-il.  These sectors of power in North Korea though likely ruled by consensus and when consensus could not be reached Kim Jong-il was likely the deciding vote which was heavily influenced by his backing of the North Korean military.  After Kim Jong-il’s death these sectors of North Korean power likely competed for influence again after Kim Jong-un took over.  Kim Jong-un’s uncle Jang Song-taek appeared to be trying to challenge the status quo by increasing the power of the Worker’s Party.  With the power of the Worker’s Party increasing, the military may have felt like their power was decreasing too much and took action to get rid of Jang to put the status quo back to where it was.  However, the status quo likely means Kim Jong-un has less power than his father did after the execution of Jang and the following purge of Party officials loyal to him.

With that all said do I think a coup is going on in North Korea?  No I do not.  Kim Jong-un is likely out of sight because of some surgery to repair whatever was ailing his feet or legs in recent months not a coup.  Also if you read the rest of the article North Korean scholar Andrei Lankov says the visit of the regime’s #2 man Hwang Pyong-so to South Korea is likely part of the North’s charm offensive.  Remember that the North likes to do charm offensive before launching a provocation cycle.  It has been reported recently that the North Koreans completed the upgrades to their launch site which could be interpreted to mean the North Koreans are going to do another space launch in the coming months.  The North Koreans do a charm offensive before provocations because they use a predetermined reason to accuse the South of spoiling the talks and then it allows them to justify a provocation cycle in response.  The predetermined reason this time could be the balloon launch activists the North has repeatedly threatened.

The most interesting thing to me is the travel ban that has been put on North Korea to include Pyongyang.  This could mean that more purges may be going on within North Korea as the military may be trying to further cement its power in North Korea over its competitors.  Time will tell what is really going on.

Kim Jong-il May Name a Successor Soon

| February 8, 2005

Andrei Lankov continues to crank out great articles. The latest article over at Asia Times is about Kim Jong Il possibly being ready to name a successor:

Now, at long last, we know what North Korea’s founder, Kim Il-sung, told his wife more than 60 years ago about his intentions for dynastic succession – or at least what a Korean broadcast says that he said. Korea watchers are parsing this purported political pillow-talk – or some other private conversation or fabrication – stitched together by propagandists. And it comes on the eve of current Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s 64th birthday on February 16, with no known plans for his succession.

North Korean radio cited comments that Kim Il-sung, the dynasty’s founder, allegedly made when talking to his wife in 1943 (in all probability, these comments are pure invention – like more or less the entire “history of the Great Leader” as taught in North Korea). The Great Leader reportedly told his wife: “I would obey my father’s instruction to struggle for Korea’s liberation from Japanese colonial rule and establish the communist country … if I fail, the tasks should be carried out by my son and grandson.” This was broadcast on January 27.

So, for the first time we have Kim Il-sung’s grandsons in the picture. Or have we? After all, many analysts interpret this as yet another propaganda exercise aimed at promoting Kim Jong-il, not his sons. But the majority seem to believe that these remarks do have some hidden meaning, indicating that Pyongyang leaders finally have decided to move ahead with their succession plans.

I tend to agree with this statement here:

It is widely believed that a dynastic succession is the only way to save the regime from collapse after Kim Jong-il’s death. If a new leader came from outside the ruling family, he would have too much incentive to negotiate surrender to the prosperous and powerful South, likely sacrificing the lives and property of the current elite in exchange for his own security. He would also probably lack the legitimacy necessary to keep the country and populace under control. Frankly, this writer believes that nothing short of Chinese intervention will save the regime one way or another, but if the Pyongyang royalty does not want to go down without a fight, it makes sense to appoint a new leader from the incumbent royal family.

You can read the rest on your own. It is an interesting read.

North Korea doesn’t necessarily need to name someone from the Kim family to be the successor. Anyone with blood on their hands would be suitable. They cannot name someone with a clean record because that person would have to much incentive to broker for peace with the South which means all the perks of the communist elite in Pyongyang is gone. So it is in their interest to name someone with a shady background.

However, they would not want to name someone to despotic because that would cramp their luxurious lifestyles also if they have a Stalin like person hovering over them which they have to be afraid of. At least with Kim Jong Il he is reported to be a likeable party guy in private.

So naming his oldest son Kim Jong-nam may not be a bad choice because he seems a rather layed back guy, heck he tried to go to Tokyo Disneland, but he also has a lot of baggage because he is Kim Jong Il’s son after all. So if the elites name him the successor they need to get him quickly involved in the intelligence service and have him order some airplane bombed like Kim Jong Il reportedly did in the 80’s to make no doubt that he has no choice but to keep the North Korean system functioning. This is probably the elites best bet to stay in power. However, it is becoming obvious that their days are numbered and no North Korean leader can do anything about that.