Tag: Iran

This is the excuse the ROK appears to be going with on why they can’t help open the Strait of Hormuz:

Should Korea decide to send a mine countermeasure vessel to the Strait of Hormuz, just reaching the area could take three months or longer, military officials said, highlighting the operational challenges facing any potential naval deployment. 

Officials familiar with the matter said that even if a decision is made, the timeline and preparation for getting assets into position would be shaped not only by the challenges of transit, but also by the difficulties of moving vessels through a high-risk environment.

While some have raised the possibility of redirecting the Cheonghae Unit — currently operating in the Gulf of Aden — to the Hormuz mission, the unit is not equipped with the mine-sweeping helicopters needed to safely operate in a mine-threat environment. Deploying a dedicated mine countermeasure vessel or an Aegis destroyer from a Korean port would therefore require a separate deployment process.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but if the ROK wanted to support Trump they would find a way to do it. The easiest way would be to say we can’t provide a countermine ship, but we can redeploy a ship on the anti-piracy mission to link up with U.S. Navy countermine ships to help patrol the Strait.

I have more respect for nations that just say participating in this war is not in their national interest. With UAE announcing that Korea is now their number one priority to export oil to there is no need for Korea to get involved in this.

Is it just me or has Trump’s messaging for the Iran War been horrible?:

 U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday that the United States no longer needs naval assistance from North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies, South Korea, Japan or Australia to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, citing “military success” in ongoing operations against Iran.

Trump made the remarks in a social media post after calling on allies and partners to help reopen the strait that has been effectively closed by the ongoing war between the U.S., Israel and Iran. The crucial waterway carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.

In a press availability later, Trump also said that NATO is “making a foolish mistake,” showing his displeasure of NATO members’ reluctance to accept his request for support in keeping the strait open, such as sending naval ships to escort merchant vessels through the channel.

“Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer ‘need,’ or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

“In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE!”

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

I understand what Trump is saying, but this is going to be a very hard sell for Korea and Japan to send ships to be involved in an active shooting war to escort tanker ships through the Strait. China on the other hand would likely be reluctant to be seen as helping the U.S. against their ally Iran:

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday renewed his calls for South Korea, China, Japan and other countries to help keep the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping route off Iran, open amid growing concerns over disruptions to shipping through the vital waterway.

Trump made the calls during a meeting with trustees of the John F. Kennedy Center for Performing Arts at the White House, highlighting that the United States’ military has “protected” allies and partners for a long time, and that the U.S. never asked for “reimbursement” for maintaining the strait.

Iran has effectively shut the strait, escalating concerns about the war’s impact on oil prices. The waterway is responsible for about a fifth of the world’s oil supply.

“We strongly encourage other nations whose economies depend on this strait far more than ours. We get less than 1 percent of our oil from the strait and some countries get much more,” Trump said.

“Japan gets 95 percent. China gets 90 percent. Many of the Europeans get quite a bit. South Korea gets 35 percent. So we want them to come and help us with the strait,” he added.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but he is also calling on NATO nations to escort ships as well. He is clearly trying to internationalize the Strait of Hormuz issue to get it reopened. If the Strait is reopened and the U.S. captures Kharg Island where 90% of Iran’s oil is exported from the war is over. The regime will crumble without the oil revenue and global pressure relieved on oil prices with the Strait reopened.

For the Iranians in South Korea this should be good news for them:

Korea will allow Iranians to remain here beyond their visa limits on humanitarian grounds, as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran intensifies in the Middle East.

In response to inquiries from The Korea Times regarding Iranian nationals in Korea, the Ministry of Justice said those whose visas cannot be extended under ordinary rules will be permitted to stay until war-related risks are deemed to have subsided enough to allow safe travel.

As of January, 2,133 Iranian nationals were residing legally in Korea.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

This is some great advertising for Korea’s defense industry:

As Iranian forces launched retaliatory strikes across the Middle East following Saturday’s U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, the United Arab Emirates turned to South Korea’s Cheongung-II surface-to-air missile system to help intercept incoming attacks, according to officials familiar with the matter. 

The system, sold to the UAE in recent years as part of Seoul’s expanding defense exports, has been integrated into the country’s broader air defense network. 

The interception marks the first combat use of a South Korean-made air defense weapon deployed overseas, underscoring the country’s expanding arms exports to the Middle East and offering a rare glimpse of the system’s performance in combat.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

Here is an interesting Op-Ed in the Korea Times from a retired ROK Army general on what South Korea should learn from the Iran War:

(……..) There are clear parallels between Iran and North Korea. Both rely on missiles, coercive rhetoric and calibrated escalation to compensate for economic and conventional weakness. Both view nuclear capability as regime insurance. Both assume that external actors will ultimately avoid confrontation due to escalation risks.

The difference is that North Korea already possesses nuclear weapons. That reality does not guarantee safety. It merely raises the stakes.

The true stabilizing factor on the Korean Peninsula is not North Korea’s arsenal. It is the alliance structure anchored by South Korea, Japan and the United States. That structure imposes strategic restraint on all sides because any conflict would be immediate, catastrophic and alliance-driven.

But restraint depends on credibility.

Here is the uncomfortable point the Korean public must confront: the U.S.-ROK alliance is not indestructible. It is sustained by political will on both sides. If South Korea signals that the alliance is conditional, negotiable or politically expendable, Washington will not ignore that signal.

Great powers adjust. They always do.

Some in South Korea believe the alliance can be strategically “tested” — that Seoul can publicly distance itself from Washington, question joint exercises, dilute trilateral cooperation with Japan and still assume the American security guarantee remains unchanged. That is a dangerous illusion. (………)

If Washington perceives hesitation in Seoul, it will hedge. Hedging does not require abandonment. It requires adjustment — force posture changes, prioritization shifts, conditional commitments. And once strategic recalibration begins, it is rarely reversed quickly.

The first costs of miscalculation will not fall on Washington. They will fall on Seoul.

Progressives who advocate engagement with North Korea are not wrong to seek reduced tension. Dialogue is necessary. But dialogue that undermines deterrence credibility invites coercion. There is no historical example in which weakening alliance solidarity strengthened negotiating leverage with a nuclear-armed adversary.

Strategic autonomy is often invoked as justification for recalibrating ties with the United States. But autonomy without substitute capability is exposure. China will not defend South Korea against Northern aggression. Japan cannot replace American extended deterrence. An independent nuclear option would impose severe economic and diplomatic penalties on South Korea. (………)

Testing the alliance for domestic political leverage is not strategic sophistication. It is strategic gambling in an increasingly unforgiving environment.

Korea Times

You can read the whole thing at the link.

I guess this reaction to the bombing of Iran from North Korea is to be expected, but the term “gangster-like conduct” is quite interesting coming from a regime known as the Sopranos State:

North Korea on Sunday strongly condemned military strikes against Iran by the United States and Israel, calling them “gangster-like conduct.”

The U.S. and Israel launched a joint attack on Iran on Saturday (U.S. time) in a large-scale military operation that the Iranian state media said killed its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, amid a stalemate in indirect nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran. 

In a statement carried by the Korea Central News Agency (KCNA), Pyongyang said Israel’s attack on Iran was conducted with the active support and backing of the U.S., and that Washington’s subsequent military actions constituted a “thoroughly unlawful act of aggression” and a “gross violation of sovereignty.”

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.