This is what the North Korea experts are saying about President-Elect Trump’s emphasis on pressuring China to do something about the North Korean nuclear and missile programs:
“Trump will soon learn that he can’t just tweet away North Korea’s ICBM and nuclear programs,” said Robert Manning, a senior analyst at the Atlantic Council. “He is flat out wrong about North Korea not developing a nuclear weapon that can reach the U.S. The only question is when. But it is likely to acquire that capability during his first term.”
Since the election, Trump has repeatedly criticized China for not helping with the North, even raising questions why the U.S. should stick to the “one-China” policy of diplomatically recognizing only Beijing, not Taiwan, when China is uncooperative over the North.
That’s in line with Trump’s campaign remarks that the North is China’s problem to fix.
Experts, however, were skeptical about the idea of pressuring China to resolve the problem.
“He has unrealistic expectations about China’s ability and/or willingness to achieve outcomes in regard to North Korea. He has equally wrong and outdated assumptions about U.S. leverage with China and will learn that through making really dumb mistakes in his first year,” Manning said.
“Trump has already shown his profound ignorance by threatening to discard the One-China policy that is the foundation of US-China relations, threatening to impose 45% tariffs on Chines goods — and then asking Beijing to solve his North Korea problem. That is complete incoherence — and he hasn’t even taken office yet,” he said.
The expert noted that there is little the U.S. can do about the problem in the near term that does not risk a war, “other than strengthening deterrence, imposing tough sanctions that remove North Korea from the international financial system.”
Scott Snyder, a senior expert on Korea at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that Trump’s tweets show he thinks North Korea is a priority issue that is closely linked to China.
“For Trump, the issue is strongly connected to relations with China. However, at present there are few, if any, formal diplomatic channels by which Trump can communicate with the Chinese leadership, and the Chinese foreign ministry appears to have rejected diplomacy by tweet,” Snyder said.
“In addition, Trump appears to have rejected the idea that North Korea’s development of a preemptive strike capability will happen or that it provides Pyongyang with a basis for making demands such as an end annual US-ROK military exercises,” he said.
Joel Wit, a former State Department negotiator with North Korea and currently editor of the website 38 North specializing in North Korean affairs, expressed strong skepticism about Trump’s idea of resolving the problem by pressuring China.
“If he pursues the avenue of trying to get China to solve this problem for the U.S., then he is going to fail just like the Obama administration,” he said. [Yonhap]
I guess we will see in the coming months what President-elect Trump means when he says the North Korean’s ICMB test “won’t happen”:
President-elect Donald Trump contended Monday night that North Korea would not be able to develop a nuclear weapon capable of reaching the United States, despite its claims to the contrary, and berated China for not doing enough to help stop the rogue state’s weapons program.
Trump’s declarations on Twitter came after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said in a New Year’s address that the country had reached the “final stages” of testing its first intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the United States.
You can read the whole article at the link, but I would speculate that China has been playing the “North Korea card” for years considering they have done little to nothing to stop North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs:
– China could exercise a veto against any new U.N. sanctions on North Korea, ignore existing sanctions and even accept the communist neighbor as a nuclear state if the incoming administration of Donald Trump plays the “Taiwan card,” a U.S. expert said.
Trump sparked China’s anger by accepting a call from Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen earlier this month in breach of the decades-long diplomatic tradition that the U.S. has kept under its “One China” policy since severing ties with Taiwan and normalizing relations with Beijing.
China considers Taiwan a renegade province that must be unified with the mainland and rails against any support for Taiwan’s independence or the notion that the island is not part of the country. Despite the absence of formal diplomatic ties, the U.S. has maintained friendly relations with Taiwan.
On Sunday, Trump went a step further, saying he doesn’t understand “why we have to be bound by a One China policy unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things, including trade.” The remark suggests Trump could use the Taiwan card in dealings with Beijing. [Yonhap]
It looks like the North Koreans are willing to give some time to the incoming Trump administration:
Choe Sun-hui
A top North Korean diplomat is reported to have told her American counterparts at a meeting in Switzerland that the North will refrain from provocations until the Donald J. Trump administration’s North Korea policy is further developed.
According to Radio Free Asia on Wednesday, Choe Son-hui, director general of the U.S. Affairs Department of the North’s Foreign Ministry and a top envoy to the six-party talks, said at a meeting with her American counterparts in Geneva last month that the North “would not take action that might close the door before seeing what emerges.”
Choe reportedly told the U.S. delegation that she hopes the Trump administration will review its policy toward the North while keeping her statement in mind. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
However, she caveated her statement by saying this:
Yet, according to meeting records obtained by RFA, Choe reportedly said that should the South and the United States conduct a joint military drill, the North’s response will have to be “very tough.”
Seoul and Washington are scheduled to hold their annual Key Resolve and Foal Eagle military exercises in February.
Here is the latest on the Trump phone call with the President of Taiwan that the media was initially trying to frame as him bungling US foreign policy:
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s phone call with Taiwan’s president shows the incoming administration believes China should work hard on North Korea as much as it cares about the cross-strait issue, a transition team official was quoted as saying Tuesday.
The official made the remark during a meeting with a group of South Korean lawmakers, pointing out that China has been unwilling to use its influence over Pyongyang even though Beijing provides most of the North’s energy and food supplies, according to the participating lawmakers.
They declined to identify the official.
On Friday, Trump spoke by phone with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, breaking the decadeslong diplomatic tradition that the U.S. has kept under its “One China” policy since severing ties with Taiwan and normalizing relations with Beijing.
China considers Taiwan a renegade province that must be unified with the mainland and rails against any support for Taiwan’s independence or the notion that the island is not part of the country. Despite the absence of formal diplomatic ties, the U.S. has maintained friendly relations with Taiwan. [Yonhap]
Some readers may remember that General James Mattis was the person that an anonymous collective of conservatives were supposedly trying to recruit for a third party run for President. Instead he is now going to be the next Secretary of Defense for the soon to be President Trump:
“We are going to appoint ‘Mad Dog’ Mattis as our secretary of defense. But we’re not announcing it until Monday, so don’t tell anybody,” Trump told his supporters in Cincinnati, Ohio. “Keep it inside the room,” he added jokingly.
Mattis, who served in the Marines from 1969 until his retirement in 2013, represents a big change from the current secretary of defense, the bookish Ashton Carter, a former Harvard professor who was trained as a physicist. [Yahoo News]
It looks like more people are beginning to realize that the North Korean problem is really a Chinese problem. Here is what journalist Gordon Chang thinks should be done by the incoming Trump administration to address the Chinese backing of North Korea:
North Korea looks impossible to solve, and it is if we see China as on our side. It is not. But if we treat China as part of the problem, which it most certainly is, then we can begin to craft solutions, like secondary sanctions. Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, will stop supporting North Korea only when the costs of doing so are too high. So far, his country has suffered almost no penalty.
To impose costs, Trump’s administration could, among other things, cut offending Chinese banks off from the global financial system, sanction every Chinese proliferator, and impose his threatened 45% across-the-board tariff on China’s goods. He could end negotiations on the Bilateral Investment Treaty and treat Chinese businesses like Beijing treats American ones.
And Mr. Trump, starting January 20, will have the tools to raise the costs on Beijing. The Chinese will surely retaliate, but they have few effective options for a long-term struggle. After all, last year they ran a $334.1 billion trade surplus in goods and services against the United States. Trade-surplus countries are vulnerable in trade wars, and that is especially true of a China with an already fragile economy that is dependent on the American market. [Forbes]
I did not realize that the only Asian who spoke at the Republican National Convention was a Korean-American that was part of Donald Trump’s National Diversity Coalition. She recently gave an interview to the Joong Ang Ilbo about the election of Donald Trump:
Lisa Shin, who served as an adviser to the National Diversity Coalition for Trump during his presidential campaign, says there is much enthusiasm about Donald J. Trump. [LISA SHIN]Among the speakers for the 2016 Republican National Convention in July was Lisa Shin, a Korean-American ophthalmologist. She was the only Asian-American who spoke at the event. Dr. Shin has served as one of the 60 advisers to the National Diversity Coalition for Trump, the U.S. President-elect Donald J. Trump’s campaign organization established with the stated aim of reflecting the will of ethnic minorities in America.“I think for Hillary, she had a lot of paid people,” said Dr. Shin during a phone interview with the JoongAng Ilbo. “But I didn’t hear a lot about grass-roots activists like I did with Trump. I believe that there was so much momentum, energy and enthusiasm with Trump. Hillary was disconnected from the people. She was what we call elite. She thought she was privileged.”
Dr. Shin is expected to play an advisry role representing Korean-Americans in the Trump administration, although she has not received any formal requests from the transition team yet. The following is an excerpt from the interview. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
You can read the rest of the interview at the link. It will be interesting to see if she receives an appointment somewhere within the Trump administration.
![Lisa Shin, who served as an adviser to the National Diversity Coalition for Trump during his presidential campaign, says there is much enthusiasm about Donald J. Trump. [LISA SHIN]](https://i0.wp.com/pds.joins.com/jmnet/koreajoongangdaily/_data/photo/2016/11/25185612.jpg?resize=610%2C343)
