Chinese President XI JINPING and I spoke at length about the meeting with KIM JONG UN of North Korea. President XI told me he appreciates that the U.S. is working to solve the problem diplomatically rather than going with the ominous alternative. China continues to be helpful!
I think before anyone gets to critical or excited about yesterday’s announcement that President Trump plans to meet Kim Jong-un by May, first lets see if in fact it happens. A lot can happen over the next two months to where this does not happen. However, if it does happen what does each side hope to get out of this US-DPRK summit? Oh Young-jin from the Korea Times provides his viewpoint in the below article that President Trump is essentially being a showman trying to win a Nobel Peace Prize:
But what prompted Rocket Man to offer an invitation and the Dotard to take it?
There can be many circumstances in play for the summit, making but only one fundamental and undeniable fact ― a meeting of their mutual interests.
From Kim Jong-un’s perspective, a meeting with Trump would be of great benefit instantly for a change of air, so to speak. There is much speculation, some well thought out, that the U.S. might preemptively strike Pyongyang to stop it from making nuclear-armed intercontinental missiles that can hit the U.S. Then there are international sanctions that are putting a stranglehold on the impoverished nation.
Plus, if the North has not mastered its weapons of mass destruction, it is very close to it. Last November, it declared it had become a nuclear weapon state. Meeting Trump would buy time in the lead-up to May while the summit is being prepared and for months or so in the post-summit afterglow.
Even if the two reach major agreement ― renunciation of nuclear weapons or a return to the global nuclear regimes such as rejoining the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty ― the North would have an option of procrastinating.
That way, Kim would outlast Trump, who has three years left in office, with a lot of domestic challenges ahead. If Trump manages to get reelected, Kim might become mellower and not likely dare wage a potential nuclear war. All he would have to do is prepare for the next U.S. president.
For Trump, the summit would be an awesome ego trip ― showing the world and detractors that after all he is a great politician and statesman that they have failed to recognize.
Trump also could mock his detractors by saying his negotiating skills, as shown in his “The Art of the Deal,” had paid off in dealing with the North. He would set out to do what Bill Clinton, the husband of his nemesis Hillary Rodham Clinton, had failed to do ― go to Pyongyang to seal the denuclearization deal.
Perhaps a Nobel Peace Prize would cap his presidency through a “kind” of deal with the North. That would make him equal to Barack Obama, Trump’s Democratic predecessor who won the Nobel Prize at the start of his presidency. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but President Trump may be a showman, but I would be surprised if he agrees to anything that does not lead to the denuclearization of North Korea during his Presidency. I haven’t seen any indication that the Trump administration wants to mortgage this problem off to someone else like prior Presidents have done.
Congressman Ed Royce who has been heavily involved with legislation involving North Korea believes the sanctions are working and President Trump needs to break the cycle of using talks to extract concessions and buy time:
Republican Rep. Ed Royce of California, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said in a statement after the announcement, “Kim Jong-un’s desire to talk shows sanctions the administration has implemented are starting to work.”
Royce said that it is important to break the cycle of the North Korean regime using talks to extract concessions and buy time, adding, “The United States and South Korea must stand shoulder-to-shoulder in applying the sustained pressure needed to peacefully end this threat. And Beijing must do its part.” [Joong Ang Ilbo]
If North Korea agrees to a Libya like denuclearization and ending of their ICBM program everyone will assuredly welcome that. With that said I would also be very surprised if North Korea agreed to full denuclearization. As I have stated before the Kim regime would likely like to get a freeze deal signed in return for reopening the Kaesong Industrial Park and the joint tourism tours with South Korea that would effectively end sanctions against them. The freeze deal would continue the cycle of the Kim regime getting major concessions for little to nothing in return since they can restart their nuclear and ICBM programs at a time of their choosing like they have done with past deals.
ROK Drop favorite Dr. Andrei Lankov believes the Kim regime will negotiate for more time just like Congressman Royce warns about:
One expert told NK News that Thursday’s news suggests that this policy has, for the time being, “worked.”
“His pressure policy has succeeded in stopping the North Korean missile program, and basically pushed them to the negotiating table,” said Andrei Lankov, director of the Korea Risk Group, which owns and operates NK News.
“However, this does not mean this policy will keep working,” he warned. “Trump is likely to push for greater concessions, and there are limits of how hard he can push.”
“Most likely the North Koreans are going to win time, but if the U.S. starts pushing too hard for denuclearization Trump won’t get what he wants and it might backfire.” [NK News]
So ultimately this summit may not lead to anything, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t helpful to Trump’s goal of denuclearization. In the future if military action is taken, a summit with Kim Jong-un can be pointed to as one more thing the Trump administration has done to peacefully resolve the nuclear issue.
This article from CNN sounds like another attempt to create tension between President Trump and John Kelly. It is pretty clear that there are people in the White House that do not like the order Kelly has brought and accusing him of taking shots at Ivanka Trump could be attempt to get the President to remove him:
The decision to send her to South Korea did not sit well with some senior officials in the West Wing, two people familiar with the situation told CNN. The nuclear threat from North Korea and the tensions already boiling across the Korean Peninsula made any US delegation far more than ceremonial.
Kelly was not initially enthusiastic about her South Korea trip, a person close to President Donald Trump said, largely because the visit to the Korean Peninsula was far more than a typical Olympic closing ceremony.
“This isn’t like going to Italy. The stakes are far higher and more complex,” a person close to the President said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive subject of the Trump family.
The concerns of Kelly and others about Ms. Trump — who has little experience in government or diplomacy, and hasn’t played a role in discussions about North Korea — were aired in private, according to people familiar with the matter. Kelly was advised by those closest to him that it would be a losing battle to oppose Ivanka as the delegation’s leader. [CNN]
You can read more at the link, but it wasn’t like she was leading a team to negotiate with the North Koreans. She was sent to attend the closing ceremony of the Winter Olympics which is something she more than capable of doing. It seems to me that Ivanka Trump was best person to send to South Korea to off set the positive media coverage that Kim Yo-jong received during her visit to South Korea. From everything reported Ivanka Trump had a great trip and received positive publicity from the visit.
In my opinion Admiral Harris is a great pick for ambassador to such an important regional security ally as Australia:
US President Donald Trump meets with Admiral Harry B. Harris, Jr. in Hawaii on November 3, 2017
China is seeking to “undermine” the international order in the Asia Pacific, Adm. Harry Harris, US President Donald Trump’s nominee for ambassador to Australia, said in Washington on Wednesday.
Addressing the US Committee on Armed Services on the challenges facing the US military in the region, Adm. Harris, the highest commander of US forces in Asia Pacific region, said the Trump administration must work to counter Beijing’s influence in the region.
“China’s intent is crystal clear. We ignore it at our peril,” he said in public testimony. “I’m concerned China will now work to undermine the international rules-based order.”
Plain-spoken and well-known in the international community for his remarks on US policy in the Asia Pacific, Harris has often provoked a vitriolic reaction from Beijing, in particular for his passionate calls for action in the South China Sea.
His appointment would raise the stakes in the battle for influence in Asia, with experts saying Harris could push the Australian government to tighten military cooperation with its traditional ally. [CNN]
You can read more at the link, but Australia has very strong economic ties with China with their mining industry exporting massive amounts of resources to the Chinese mainland. Picking such a high profile US military figure that has been so outspoken about Chinese intentions, is a good counter to any influence the Chinese may try to use on Australia economically.
We have seen in the past how the Chinese used their economic leverage against South Korea in the ongoing THAAD dispute. If they try the same tactic against Australia, for example in a South China Sea dispute, the US will have a strong voice in Australia to speak out against it.
President Trump is taking credit for GM shutting down one of their factories in Gunsan and relocating to Detroit:
U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday hailed General Motors Co.’s decision to shut down a plant in South Korea, saying the carmaker will now “move back” to Detroit.
GM announced the same day that it will close one of its four car assembly plants in South Korea by the end of May due to lower demand for its vehicles. The move came as part of the Detroit-based automaker’s broad restructuring program across the world.
“GM Korea company announced today that it will cease production and close its Gunsan plant in May of 2018, and they’re going to move back to Detroit,” Trump said at a trade-related meeting at the White House.
The facility in Gunsan, 270 kilometers south of Seoul, was underutilized and running at 20 percent of its capacity for the past three years.
“You don’t hear these things, except for the fact that Trump became president,” Trump said. “Believe me, you wouldn’t be hearing that. So they’re moving back from Korea to Detroit. They’re moving.” [Korea Times]
Apparently GM is saying they are closing the plant due to higher labor costs in South Korea. GM is trying to get the union to renegotiate its labor contract to keep its other three plants in the country open.
South Korean TV sees some parallels in the way the Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un are sending family members to the Winter Olympics. pic.twitter.com/DfRBUcWC9L
A professor at Kyunghee University, Emanuel Yi Pastreich believes that President Trump is governing the United States based on the North Korean model:
Emanuel Pastreich
But there is a mysterious mojo that the elites draw from the ludicrous actions of their dear leader. Now it seems as if Kim Jung-un has found his greatest fan, and imitator, in the corridors of power of Washington D.C.
That is right, for all his bluster about destroying North Korea, Donald Trump is practically modeling his every speech on the craft of the bad boy of Pyongyang. When Trump threatens to “wipe North Korea off the face of the Earth,” he still cannot get the traction of Kim’s eloquent “sea of fire.”
And Trump’s tantrums in which he rages that Kim is “short and fat,” a “sick puppy,” and “a madman” simply lack the erudite simplicity of Kim’s putdown “dotard”
The Trump administration has adopted the “North Korean model” for governance, diplomacy and security and even embraced North Korea’s legendary “military first” economics as its own national strategy. [Korea Times]
You can read the rest at the link, but comparing President Trump to Kim Jong-un is lazy analysis just like the people who compare him to Hitler. Until President Trump starts opening concentration camps, executing the political opposition, counterfeiting money, smuggling drugs, etc. that are staples of the North Korean regime then you can claim he is acting like Kim Jong-un.
